FanPost

It may be time for LeBron to start sacrificing, too

Here are some team stats for this season, split between the first and the last 4 games. I decided to make the incision after the fourth game of the season for a number of reasons: A) It coincides with moving Russell Westbrook to the bench, therefore the data will be consistent with regards to role for the first 4 games and consistent with what can reasonably be expected moving forward. B) The fifth game is when Ham started to make bigger changes. The offense started to look better, he figured the first things out. Even though AD was missing the fifth game and Ham cut Jones’ and Nunn’s minutes from the sixth game. So it’s imperfect to divide the season in this way. However, moving Westbrook to the bench seems by far the biggest move and having the same sample size of 4 games still makes the mid-point the most logical point for an incision/distinguishing the very early games from what might be a better indication of what this team is.

The numbers:

Team stats (league ranking)

First 4 games

Last 4 games

Winning record

Lost 4

2W2L

Net rating

-7.1

-2.1

Offensive rating

96.9 (30th)

109.3 (T-21st)

Defensive rating

104.0 (4th)

111.4 (16th)

3 point percentage

22.3 (30th)

35.5 (T-15th)

3 point attempts per game

37.0 (9th)

30.3 (T-25th)*

Effective field goal percentage

46.1 (30th)

51.8 (23rd)

True shooting percentage

50.1 (30th)

56.1 (23rd)

Assist percentage

63.0 (10th)

57.1(21st)

Turnover percentage

14.0 (T-13th)

14.3 (13th)

Assist/turnover ratio

1.64 (22nd)

1.60 (20th)

Rebounding percentage

45.3 (30th)

51.4 (T-8th)

*1 OT game included

Notes:

· It ain’t rocket science to argue that the team had zero chance of being competitive with the anemic early-season offense. What structural changes were taken on offense?

· The number of 3-point attempts decreased a lot. It didn’t make sense to be by far the worst shooting team in the league while ranking in the top10 in attempts after all. Along with it, the 3-point percentage improved to league average.

· It’s safe to say that the horrendous rebounding contributed to the losing streak. Big improvement here as well.

· All other numbers don’t indicate a structural change. The assist percentage is noticeably lower but that might very well be statistical noise. After all, neither the turnover percentage nor the assist-to-turnover ratio point to the team passing better/sharing the ball more or less.

So let’s get to the core of this fan post: how good is the shot selection and decision-making of the team as well as individuals? How good could they realistically be on offense?

First 4 games

LeBron James

Anthony Davis

Russell Westbrook

Rest of team

Games played

4

4

3

Restricted area

23/32 (71.9)

31/38 (81.6)

8/16 (50.0)

21/31 (67.7)

Percentage of FGA

32/86 (37.2)

38/74 (51.4)

16/38 (42.1)

31/134 (23.1)

Outside restricted area

16/54 (38.0)

8/36 (25.0)

3/22 (15.9)

28/103 (35.4)

% of FGA

54/86 (62.8)

36/74 (48.6)

22/38 (57.9)

103/134 (76.9)

Outside the paint

10/39 (37.2)

3/18 (22.2)

2/15 (16.7)

22/74 (41.2)

% of FGA

39/86 (45.3)

18/74 (24.3)

15/38 (39.5)

74/134 (55.2)

3s

9/35 (38.6)

2/11 (27.3)

1/12 (12.5)

17/72 (35.4)

% of FGA

35/86 (40.7)

11/74 (14.9)

12/38 (31.6)

72/134 (53.7)

Corner 3s

1/3 (50.0)

0/3 (0.0)

0/4 (0.0)

5/31 (24.2)

Percentage of 3s

3/35 (8.6)

3/11 (27.3)

4/12 (33.3)

31/72 (43.1)

EFG total

50.6

54.1

30.3

42.9

Last 4 games

LeBron James

Anthony Davis

Russell Westbrook

Rest of team

Games played

4

3

4

Restricted area

26/42 (61.9)

18/28 (64.3)

18/32 (56.3)

33/52 (63.5)

Percentage of FGA

42/88 (47.7)

28/52 (53.8)

32/53 (60.4)

52/173 (30.1)

Outside restricted area

10/46 (25.0)

9/24 (39.6)

9/21 (59.5)

45/121 (50.4)

% of FGA

46/88 (52.3)

24/52 (46.2)

21/53 (39.6)

121/173 (69.9)

Outside the paint

9/35 (30.0)

4/13 (34.6)

7/17 (61.8)

35/97 (52.6)

% of FGA

35/88 (39.8)

13/52 (25.0)

17/53 (32.1)

97/173 (56.1)

3s

3/23 (19.6)

1/2 (75.0)

7/17 (61.8)

32/79 (60.8)

% of FGA

23/88 (26.1)

2/52 (3.8)

17/53 (32.1)

79/173 (45.7)

Corner 3s

1/3 (50.0)

0/0

1/3 (50.0)

12/34 (51.9)

Percentage of 3s

3/23 (13.0)

0/2 (0.0

3/17 (17.6)

34/79 (43.0)

EFG total

42.6

52.9

57.5

54.3

Glossary:

ALL percentages point to the effective field goal percentage and account for the 50%

extra value that a made 3 provides.

Purple: highly efficient shot, far exceeding team/league averages.

Green: very efficient shot, clearly exceeding team/league averages.

Light green: efficient shot, exceeding league averages.

Blue: solid shot, within a few percentage points of the average.

Orange: questionable shot, clearly below team/league averages.

Red: bad shot, far below team/league averages.

Shots inside the restricted area are compared to a base value of 55% in lack of finding

exact league averages.

Shots outside the restricted area are compared to a base value of 46.3%, the current

league average field goal percentage. A low value to clear when shooting 3s, a relatively

high bar on 2-point jump shots or late in the shot clock.

3-point percentages are compared to a base value of 53.6%, the current league average.

Total effective field goal percentage is compared to a base value of 53.2%, the current

league average.

Takeaways team offense

As can be seen above, effective field goal percentage of the team increased from 46.1% (dead last) to 51.8% which still ranks in the bottom 10, as does the offensive rating.

Spacing is not an abstract concept: as the team shoots a better percentage from 3, it’s easier to get to the rim: LeBron’s attempts in the restricted area increased from 8 a game to almost 10. AD’s attempts are roughly the same (I’ve excluded the extra shots from OT vs the Pelicans for both players) and Westbrook’s attempts in the restricted area skyrocketed from 5.3/game to 8 (he didn’t play any overtime minutes).

Getting up to 50% more shots where the stars are most efficient is huge for the team, not just individuals as a look at the shot profile for the rest of the team shows: they’re getting 30% of their shots closest to the rim instead of 23%. In absolute numbers: 12.7 attempts per game in the restricted area (excluding OT) as opposed to 7.7 attempts. 5 additional highly efficient shots a game.

What’s more, those shots put pressure on the defense, force help defense and double teams which then gets teammates open shots and creates good spacing for the role-players.

Even better, offensive woes – at least when it comes to finishing looks, LeBron and Russ clearly carry the vast majority of the creative load – can’t be put on the role-players: over the last 4 games there’s almost no area where they haven’t finished efficiently. The one exception to this are 2-point attempts outside the paint (which becomes clear when deducting the 3s from the outside-the-paint numbers: they shot 3-18 on those shots).

The shot profile of the rest of the team is healthy: they are taking more highly efficient shots, those shots account for the vast majority of their shot diet and the shot profile looks rather balanced (even though a good mid-range shooter would actually help, albeit situationally). This shot profile not only points to better spacing, it also points to the playmakers doing a good job of providing/creating good looks which in turn is made easier by teammates knocking down shots.

Moving Russ as a non-spacer (in terms of shooting) to the bench might also help the offense and the spacing but that’s a little hard to prove given that Russ not only shoots very well over the previous 3 games, it’s also often the starters struggling/trailing without him and – as pointed out above – forcing help defense and then finding the open man is a valuable part of spacing out opponents so this theory needs a much bigger sample size in my opinion.

Individual shot profiles

AD: He finished exceptionally well inside early in the season. Now, he’s down to ‘just’ good efficiency in the restricted area (a fact that may be normal variance or caused by being banged up quite a bit). However, his overall effective field goal percentage is higher. And that’s mostly because his shot selection has much improved: he has almost completely cut out his 3s and made it a rare part of his shot diet instead of a regular one. He’s also finishing better inside the paint but outside the restricted area. He’s closer to the basket on average, as a shooter – but also, as a rebounder. So I got a little curious and checked and indeed, his offensive rebounding percentage jumped from 5.4 to 13.4%! That being said, offensive rebounds are also infamous of potentially hurting your defense and as the team’s defense as well as AD’s individual defensive rating has taken a big hit, this deserves further attention over the upcoming weeks.

Summary though: AD’s shot selection is much better and that should pay off in the long run.

Westbrook: we’ve all seen the difference with his play being night and day. His shooting profile is one indicator why and how Russ has played better: he is taken about 60% of his shots in the restricted area instead of outside of it. By doing so, Russ puts pressure on the defense more often, draws double teams, help defense and creates space. This is also reflected in his assists which have gone from 4.3 to 6.5 a game.

Obviously, getting to the rim more helps his efficiency. The big difference is his outside shot also falling. This part can and should be taken with two grains of salt. It’s small-sample size theatre and – at least to the tune of 41% shooting behind the arc – unsustainable. What could be sustainable however is better shot selection:

It stands out that the vast majority of his outside shots are 3s now, not mid-range shots. When applying a bigger sample size, since 17/18 Russ has continued to take fewer shots between 10 feet and the arc every year, from 36% of his shot diet down to 22% last season all the way down to 4.4% so far this season. Even as a 30% shooter from 3 (equivalent to 45% effective field goal percentage), those 3s – even for him – are better shots than mid-range 2s. Ideally, he should get inside every time but that’s as unrealistic for him as it is for every player in the league. He’s not likely to ever be an efficient shooter or sustain anything close to these percentages, that’s mostly out of his control. What he can and does continue to work on, is his shot selection. Unfortunately it only goes so far and unlike AD, he has to take some 3s (how many depends on his shooting percentages and what other shots are alternatives in that situation). The real difference-maker in terms of efficiency, especially for a guard, is and will be outside shooting. Which leads us to…

LBJ: This can be summarized the easiest as ‘right now, about half of his shots are bad shots’. Even over the first 4 games, those shots were questionable at best – and they accounted for about 60% of his shot diet. That was kind of understandable early on when teammates couldn’t hit the ocean and LeBron shot a little better. Right now, the volume of outside shots LeBron takes (and how he frequently holds the ball, doesn’t get the defense moving and doesn’t get teammates into a rhythm or establishes them as offensive threats that should be guarded) is a massive drag on the team’s offense.

However, this is not a new phenomenon. LeBron has only slightly tweaked his shot profile over the years and it’s a subtle, gradual change, not an abrupt one: through his age 31 season, about 80% of his shot diet was comprised of 2-point attempts. As the league took more 3s and LeBron was aging, LeBron also – and logically – took more 3s. His 2-point attempts dropped to 74, then 70% of his total field goal attempts, over the last 3 seasons it has been 63-67% and he’s in line with that this year as well.

The two obvious issues with it: the percentages and the volume when the percentages are bad. It’s the exact same thing for him and Russ, just that it’s even more extreme for LeBron as LeBron’s percentage from 0-3 feet lies in the high 70s over the previous seasons whereas Westbrook’s has been in the low- to mid-60s, adding about 15% to the discrepancy in effective field goal percentage for LeBron between shots at the rim and taking 3s. LeBron (and AD) are hurting their own percentages more than anybody else when their 3-point percentage is down. And LeBron does it at a high volume.

Worse, he’s also hurting his free throw rate (a shot that he has hit at a relatively good percentage of 73-75% last year and this season and that is most definitely an efficient shot). So when his 3-point shot isn’t falling, keeping up the volume turns into an avalanche of negatives, both for his efficiency and for the team.

Enough of the problems, what could be a solution? In my opinion, it’s beyond time for LeBron to adapt his game to changed circumstances. Fatigue seems to be a big factor leading to him taking more 3s instead of attacking the rim and it’s only getting worse as he’s aging, however gracefully that process is in his case and whatever he’s investing to slow down that process. He can’t rest on defense either, at least not frequently. We’ve seen the effects of it last season and over the last two games, you fold on winning so that’s no solution. Pelinka could help by adding somebody who can play the 4, especially vs bigger opponents. Right now, that’s not the case.

What support does he have? Currently, his teammates are shooting well, from almost anywhere. The only case where you sacrifice efficiency is if LeBron turns down a drive to the rim for the benefit of a role-player taking a shot. We’re not looking for alternatives for that scenario, we’re looking for options when LeBron doesn’t feel capable of getting to the rim. You got a second guy on the team who excels at setting up teammates, breaking down defenses, getting them moving. You got secondary playmakers like Reaves who throw crisp passes if only someone else gets the defense moving. You got an athlete like Lonnie Walker who only needs half a step to use that advantage effectively. And you got a big roll/lob target in AD.

It's not gold, when Russ ain’t on the court, LeBron breaking down defenses initially is the only reliable and efficient offense the team has. He still has to do some kind of work on the vast majority of possessions without Russ. But that can be pick’n’roll, that can be dribble hand-offs, that can be using screens more and pass, it doesn’t have to be the drive against two or three guys taking the contact every single time. LeBron could and should do less on the offensive end.

Not only is LeBron 38, not only have you added Westbrook to the team but LeBron’s usage remains unchanged. His minutes haven’t decreased one bit. ‘Because the team loses without him’ – that ain’t the case anymore as not only the net rating shows but both of his negative plusminus and on/off rating. The real reason his minutes haven’t decreased is very likely ego and nothing else.

LeBron may need to adapt and what I would like to see more than anything else is playing fewer (significantly fewer) minutes, unless the team is winning with him and losing without him. It’s situational and you gotta be more flexible. The exact same goes for his 3-point volume: cut it down to 4 or 5 attempts a game when you’re shot ain’t falling, cut it down to 0 or 1 in stretches when you’re extremely fatigued. Westbrook will have to do the same when his percentages go down again, take 2 or 3 shots from 3, not 5. This goes for both players and even more so when your teammates are shooting well, providing you options. Give the ball up more instead of holding it and then chucking. On defense, you can’t rest. You can use your experience to anticipate, your body to box out and rebound but when you gotta move you gotta move or the team will lose. It’s obvious LeBron can’t do that for 36 minutes a night over an entire season. How about trying 30 first, then resting here and there?

Westbrook’s minutes are down, his intensity, defense and productivity are up. Still a small sample size but odds are that fewer yet productive minutes are the logical way to go as you’re aging. At least if winning is the focus, not stats.

It may be time for LeBron to start sacrificing, too. He’ll be better off for it and so will the team. They got LeBron, AD, Russ and apart from a big hole when it comes to backup bigs, a solid supporting cast. This team doesn't need to be a bottom 10 offense and can be a top 10 defense. They're gonna need everybody to put individual interests second in order to achieve that.

Note: this is still an opinion piece. It’s based on a bunch of indicators. As said earlier though, the changes are rather subtle and gradual in most areas, therefore this ain’t the only possible conclusion. Feel free to disagree and discuss. To me, it seems only logical though that a 38-year old with over 60.000 minutes on the court can’t keep doing what he did at age 32 at the same rate forever.


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