On Tuesday, we took a risk in hoping that Anthony Davis’ strong preseason and Darvin Ham’s new-look offense both would play in his favor, helping him overcome a bogey opponent in Draymond Green.
The result was AD clearing his points over/under and giving some solace on a night when the Lakers provided few reasons for excitement. Can he continue that hot start in the second game of the season?
As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings has the Lakers as +5.5 underdogs against the Clippers in their home opener. The moneyline sits at +195, which is mildly intriguing if you think a home crowd bump could be in play. The two sides, when resembling something close to full strength last year, had some exciting match-ups that went down to the wire.
However, for as long as AD is going to look strong to start the year, you might as well keep riding him. And for as much as Draymond Green may be someone he struggles with, the Clippers have been a team he has thrived against as a Laker. In eight games in purple and gold against the Clippers, Davis has averaged 24 points.
One of those contests saw him play only nine minutes and score four points after stepping on the scorers table and tweaking his ankle before being ruled out with back spasms. Remove that from the equation and the average jumps to 26.8 points per contest. Last season, he scored 27 points on 66.7% shooting and 30 points on 50% shooting in two games.
Currently, AD’s over/under on points is set at 24.5. He’s only failed to score 25 points in three of those eight meetings with, again, one of them being the contest he only played nine minutes.
The Clippers haven’t particularly added anything in the front court to combat AD. Ivica Zubac hasn’t been much of a deterrent to him. After Zu, Marcus Morris, Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum are the backup centers, none of which present much of a problem on paper defensively for AD.
There are no safe bets when it comes to gambling, but based on previous meetings and his current strong play, continue rolling with AD against the Clippers until he does us wrong.