FanPost

Why the best thing for the Lakers (and Paul George) would be for him to opt-in to his final year

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As the trade deadline approaches, you will see numerous articles saying the Lakers will need to dump the salaries of BOTH Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle in order to sign two max free agents. While the easiest form of math may prove this to be true, it would actually be in both the Lakers’ and Paul George’s best interest to arrange a Chris Paul style sign-and-trade with OKC. While the old fashioned sign-and-trade deals are off the table with the current CBA, CP3 negotiated one anyway using the final season of his old contract as leverage. He told the Clippers he could opt-out and go to the Rockets as an Unrestriced Free Agent - leaving them with nothing - OR he could opt-in and they could trade him for valuable pieces like Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. The Clippers made the obvious choice. That helped the Rockets (who needed to dump salary to be able to pay CP3) and the Clippers. Similarly, Paul George has a player option for the final season of the contract he signed with the Pacers. The final year of his contract is $9.6m less than George could make as a 30% max free agent. Why would he want to opt-in? Obviously it would be great for the Lakers to have the additional cap space to sign more quality free agents; but, other than playing with a better supporting cast, what’s in it for Paul George? The answer, surprisingly, is more money. George will be an eight year veteran next summer. If he goes to a new team, the max they could sign him for is 30% of the salary cap with 5% raises.

PLAN A

George signs a new 30% max contract with a new team: 4 years with 5% raises per year:
2018-2019 $30.3m
2019-2020 $31.82m
2020-2021 $33.41m
2021-2022 $35.08m
Total over 4 years: $130.61m

If George instead demands an opt-in trade with the Lakers, we could offer OKC a fair package of, say Jordan Clarkson, a conditional future first round pick, and filler (Zubac and Ennis) for George. OKC gets valuable pieces with Clarkson and the pick and the Lakers get $9.6m in additional cap space. The Lakers then have George’s Bird Rights, which allows for 8% annual raises. How does George make more money? He signs a 2 year deal with a one year player option in the summer of 2019, then he opts out in the summer of 2020. By that time, the Lakers can re-sign Paul George to the 10 year veteran super max 35% contract with 8% raises for 5 seasons. George will have done a solid for OKC by leaving them with something after he leaves, he will ensure he has higher quality teammates by giving the Lakers more cap flexibility, and he will do right by himself by giving himself the best chance to win and make the most money.

PLAN B
George opts-in to his final year, signs a 1+1 30% max, then signs a 35% supermax with 8% raises)
2018-2019: $20.7m
2019-2020: $32.4m
2020-2021: $38.2m
2021-2022: $41.2m
Total over 4 years: $132.5m

Let's take a look at where our cap situation would be after making this trade with OKC and then signing DeMarcus Cousins to a 30% max:

Cousins $30.3m

George $20.7m

Randle $12.4m (cap hold)

Ball $7.46m

Deng $7.3m (stretched)

Ingram $5.76m

Nance $2.27m

Kuzma $1.69m

Hart $1.66m

Bryant $1.38m

2nd Round Pick $1.38m

2x Roster Spots to get to 12 men $1.12m

That puts us at $93.42m vs a $101m salary cap. We’d have $7.58m to offer for a backup PG or SF (or make a 35% max offer to LeBron instead of a 30% max to Cousins - flexibility!) We’d also have the $5m exception to offer another solid vet over the cap before delving into minimum contracts for ring chasing vets. Obviously, we could free up more space should we elect to re-sign Randle for less than $12.4m. I’m sure George’s agent knows these numbers already. It does require George making a bet on his health for the next two seasons; but if Chris Paul can do it at age 32, what would stop George from doing it at age 28? There is risk involved for the Lakers as well. If we stand pat at the deadline, a worse deal may be on the table for Clarkson should OKC not want to do this opt-in-and-trade. We’d need to find a trading partner with cap space to take on JC with no salary coming back - not a simple trade considering they’ll know we have some desperation. We could lose the $9.6m in cap space and might get something less valuable in return for Clarkson.