FanPost

Lonzo Ball By the Numbers, How He Stacks Up, and What to Expect

Everyone seems to have a take on Lonzo Ball based on the eye test. While the eye test is important, it is subjective to the eye of the beholder. While he is a unique talent, he has some stats that might surprise you and point out what he is as a player. Before I go into his style of play and his fit with the Lakers, let's go over these important statistics to consider and what they mean:

  • Ball averaged a meager 9.5 FGAs per game in 35 minutes per game.
  • He attempted 5.4 3s per game compared to 4.1 2s per game, consisting of mostly layups which is good, but not much of a sample size.
  • He shot 67.3% from the free-throw line, but only shot 2.7 FTAs per game, showing low variance. Considering he has a solid jumper for a 19-year-old, establishing a rhythm from the free-throw line is key. His problem is he does not draw enough fouls or master his craft as a shooter. He tends to get loose with his release by not holding a consistent follow through. That can be tightened up given the right training. Steve Nash had a very low free-throw rate from the line, but he would shoot much more often from the field than Lonzo does and was a gym rat, always working on his shot. That is not to say Ball will not be that, but that is what he will need to do in order to become a reliable free-throw shooter.
  • Ball had a drastically low 18.1% usage rate compared to 27.2% for Josh Jackson, 31.4% for Markelle Fultz, 27.6% for De'Aaron Fox, Dennis Smith, Jr. at 27.2%, and 26.2% for Jayson Tatum. Usage rate is the amount of plays used by a player when he was on the floor. Ball's low rate means he is used to sharing the ball and deferring, but not used to consistently being the top option as a focal point.
  • His assist rate of 31.4% is actually lower than fellow draft picks Markelle Fultz's 35.5% and Dennis Smith, Jr.'s 34.2%, but higher than De'Aaron Fox's 28.6%. Assist rate is the estimate percentage of teammate field goals created via assist from that player while he was on the floor. While this does not tell me that Fultz and Smith are better passers, when you factor in their exponentially higher usage rates, it tells me that Fultz and Smith are much more used to creating plays at a higher rate than Ball.
  • In Dean Oliver's points produced per game stat, Ball ranks very similarly with Tatum, Jackson, and Fox with all around 16-17 points produced per game. Smith is at 19 points produced per game and Fultz outranks them all by far with 23.28 points produced per game.
  • Ball had a turnover rate of 18.6%, which is slightly higher than Smith's 17.3% and significantly higher than Fultz's 13.4% and Fox's 13.7%. Considering one of the knocks on Dennis Smith, Jr. coming into the draft was being turnover prone should tell us Lonzo is not any better than Smith in this category. Considering Ball averaged 2.5 turnovers per game in 35 minutes per game on a small 18.1% usage rate, it is a real concern. However, turnovers are usually a flaw for almost every young guard coming into the draft. While Ball's concern is more heightened than most, we will see if he will mitigate this flaw over time.
(All stats come from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players.)

With all of these numbers being considered, we should expect Lonzo Ball to not have the rock a whole lot next season. With D'Angelo Russell gone and a lack of a pick n' roll (PNR) player on the roster outside of Jordan Clarkson, Ball will be much more of a shooting guard coming off screens like he did at UCLA. He will probably fill the Nick Young role, but obviously with smarter shot selection and a much larger willingness to move the ball. Obviously, Ball in transition will really push the pace which will be a plus and it makes Julius Randle more expendable on the trade market (for Paul George perhaps) since that has been his role on the squad. However, unlike Randle, Ball will advance the rock with quicker, sharper decision making. Randle has a tendency to over-dribble which can sometimes kill fast-break opportunities. With that will come turnovers, though, but not all of them will be Ball's fault. Often times players like Nash, Jason Kidd, LeBron James, and Magic Johnson would get turnovers because they are one-step ahead of everybody, including their own teammates. Does that mean all of Ball's turnovers will not be his fault? Of course not. Like Stephen Curry, he does get lackadaisical with the ball at times. Because I do not expect him to handle the rock a lot and probably not play 30 minutes a game, his turnovers per game will not look too bad, but his turnover rate will probably not look that good.

In terms of minutes per game, Luke Walton did a good job last season staggering Brandon Ingram's minutes. Going from about 30 games a season in college to 82 games in the NBA is a huge jump. Add to the fact that Ball's conditioning is already in question, do not expect eye-popping, Rookie of the Year stats mostly due to an unspectacular amount of minutes per game combined with a low usage rate. This will also be impacted depending on if the Lakers trade for Paul George, get rid of Jordan Clarkson, and/or acquire guards in free agency.

Another big factor is the Lakers are a PNR heavy team and Lonzo Ball has hardly ever run pick n' rolls from Chino Hills to UCLA. Because of his IQ, I do believe Ball will adjust eventually. It is a matter of when he will get it and not if he will get it, but when could be three years down the road or three months down the road. However, it will be an adjustment early on and the Lakers' offense could be disastrous if they use Ball in PNRs time after time. I liken Lonzo going from UCLA to the Lakers to Robert Griffin III going from Baylor to the Redskins. Griffin went from a shotgun spread offense to an under-center, zone-read scheme under Mike Shanahan. Lonzo Ball is going from a spread system where most of the movement is off the ball to a scheme where lots of action comes from PNRs and pin down screens. While I highly doubt Ball will bust like RG3, he will need to make significant adaptations to his game.

The biggest adjustment for Ball will be on the defensive end. No, he is not a terrible defender others make him out to be. Yes, his lateral quickness is not good. He does not slide his feet well at all, but he is smart and has quick hands which will get him a lot of steals. His length and size as a wing defender are ideal, standing at 6'6" with a 7 foot wingspan. He will need a good trainer to work on his flexibility, lateral quickness, and willingness to get low in a stance. Also add to the fact Chino Hills has never played defense ever and UCLA ran a lot of 2-3 zone, this will be Lonzo's first time ever playing real man-to-man defense on a consistent basis. That is definitely concerning because as we have seen in the playoffs, teams pick out the poor defenders, put them through pick after pick, attack them consistently, wear them down, and make the coach have to consider taking them out. We saw this with Isaiah Thomas, Damian Lillard, and JR Smith just to name a few. His defensive potential is high, but his floor is also quite low. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle and given his size and physical tools, that would be disappointing considering he is built similarly to Klay Thompson at the same age, but his lateral quickness is just a huge problem.

To sum it up, expectations for Lonzo Ball should be tempered for the meantime. He is not a dynamic scorer, but he is good at coming off screens and knocking down open 3s and pushing the pace and advancing the ball to the open man. His low free-throw rate is concerning especially if he is going to shoot poorly from the line for a guard. His lack of experience in PNRs and man-to-man defense also raise lots of concern, but given his IQ and if he is willing to work, Ball will probably adjust accordingly, even though it will take time. Keep your expectations on him in check for next season, but I do think he will end up being a very good pro. Next season, I expect his stat line to be around 8-5-5 on 41/31/68 shooting splits more or less. I doubt he will ever be a 20 PPG scorer but he can definitely be an 11-13 APG guy and a 6-8 RPG guy. He is that good of a passer and his rebounding for a guard is excellent. If he reaches his potential defensively by working hard on his lateral quickness, he can be a very good wing defender, but it will take a lot of work and time to get there. At the very worst, he will probably be a solid starter. He is a very intriguing prospect and I look forward to seeing how he will develop.