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2012 NBA Season Preview

Los Angeles Lakers 2012 Season Preview: The Predictions

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We've done what we can this preseason to prepare you for what will undoubtedly be one of the craziest seasons on record in Lakers history. Compact schedule? Check. Insane trade rumors? Check. A roster that could legitimately contend for a trophy or miss the playoffs? Check. Questions at every position? Check. With that in mind, we looked at the offense, we looked at the defense, and we looked at all the players. Now it's time to put our reason to the test and let you all know what we think will happen.

After the jump, without further ado, the predictions of your SSR writing team.

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Los Angeles Lakers 2012 Season Preivew: The Stats

LOS ANGELES, CA - MAY 27:  (C) Andrew Bynum #17 of the Los Angeles Lakers gives teammates (L) Pau Gasol #16 and Kobe Bryant #24 of the Lakers a high five against the Denver Nuggets in the second quarter of Game Five of the Western Conference Finals during the 2009 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center on May 27, 2009 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Throughout this week our incredibly talented writers have put pen to paper (or fingers to keyboard) in an attempt to preview all aspects of how our beloved purple and gold will look this year. The focus has been qualitative in nature. Today we change gears and move to a quantitative preview as we predict the stat lines for each Laker and the team as a whole.

The method I used to predict the following stats was to focus on each player's per-minute production. Once I determined how I feel each player will perform per minute, I then divvy up the season's minutes amongst the players. Some final checks and balances are made to ensure that the minutes match up to 66 games (plus a few overtimes), that each position has the same number of minutes, and that the final team statistics are still reasonable.

With any statistical prediction there are certain caveats and qualifiers that apply. The following predictions assume no further roster changes are made, whether they occur via trade, acquisition, or amnesty. Should any major changes be made then these predictions should be discarded quicker than David Stern can say "basketball reasons". Additionally, I am not making any predictions for serious injuries. Now that I have attempted to cover my butt, should I miss these predictions worse than a Metta World Peace step-back three, let’s go on to the stats.

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Los Angeles Lakers 2012 Season Preview: The Defense

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It's pretty fair to say that nobody in the particularly large fanbase of the Los Angeles Lakers saw the end of the 2011 season coming. Most of us thought another championship banner was the most likely conclusion. Some may have more logically concluded that a deep, but eventually empty, playoff run was in store. But nobody gazed into the crystal ball and saw a 2nd round sweep coming. We could have ... after all, there were plenty of signs throughout the season that the Lakers just weren't up to the task, plenty of times when the team looked old and slow and lethargic. We took in every one of those signs, and then promptly ignored them. Not because we're stupid or biased, but because we've found through experience that those signs were misleading. Besides, there was one sign telling us the exact opposite.

The defense. The defense gave us hope.

Last year, the Lakers clocked in with a very decent 104.3 Defensive Rating (DR), good for 6th in the league, but that wasn't the encouraging part. For most of the season, the Laker D skirted the top 10, as they have for the past three or so seasons. And then the All-Star break happened. Andrew Bynum as a defensive force happened. The Lakers as a cohesive defensive unit happened. 18 games with a combined 101.8 DR happened. The Lakers went from a very decent defensive team to a dominant defensive team over All-Star weekend. And then, just as quickly as it arrived, the defensive juggernaut disappeared. But it didn't matter, because we'd already seen it. Put that together with a team that hadn't failed to show up when it mattered in over two years, and it was the only sign we needed. The Lakers were going to be just fine.

Now we know the truth. The Lakers were not fine. And it was the defense. The defense which tore our dreams of another banner to shreds.

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Los Angeles Lakers 2012 Season Preview: The Offense

Los Angeles Clippers' Caron Butler, right, attempts to knock the ball away from Los Angeles Lakers' Kobe Bryant during the first half of an NBA preseason basketball game in Los Angeles on Monday, Dec. 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

Amid the hilarity of Monday's blowout loss in which most of the players on the floor looked like, well, players who had had barely a week of training camp to get acclimated to one another, we saw bits and pieces of the San Antonio-inspired offense Mike Brown hopes to implement. Derived from the one shaped around two highly skilled and multifaceted post threats in Tim Duncan and David Robinson, Brown's offense emphasizes early offense with the bigs running the floor and setting up a post threat before the defense can be set, heavy use of screening in the pick-and-roll and especially the pick-and-pop to create opportunities on the perimeter, and more set plays than the triangle that nevertheless will require their own set of specific reads. If that was lost on you while watching the disorganized yet entertaining mess that was the Lakers offense on Monday, then don't worry about it, as we will undoubtedly see it fully expressed over the course of the season.

In a series of articles over the summer covering the Lakers' needs at point guard, the wings, and in the frontcourt, we previously discussed the specifics of what Brown's offense might entail, largely working off an excellent post by NBA Playbook's Sebastian Pruiti, which is a must read for any Lakers' fan right now, as it more or less looks like the shape Brown's offense will take. After the jump, we will reiterate some of the offense's principles, discuss how this current roster can fit into it, and what possible rotation moves or future signings might be necessary for Brown to maximize what he gets out of his offense as the Lakers move away from the triangle that has been their identity for so long.

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Los Angeles Lakers 2012 Season Preview: The Frontcourt

Indiana Pacers' Josh McRoberts makes a pass near the end of practice in Indianapolis, Friday, April 15, 2011. The Pacers will play the Chicago Bulls in a first-round series that starts on Saturday. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

With only a week left to go before the NBA season kicks off, get ready for some Season Preview overload. Over the next few days, we'll cover all the angles to prepare you for what is sure to be a crazy season. Here's hoping all our work doesn't get flushed down the tube with a big move in the next few days. Or maybe here's hoping it does ...

The Los Angeles Lakers are a team in flux. It's an ironic statement, because for every element of truth in it, the team appears on paper to be nearly the same. It's core is the same, though that core has been weakened with the departure of Lamar Odom. The statement is also ironic because the team is not fluctuating nearly as much as they apparently wanted to be. Before the free agency period even started, there was talk that the Lakers would attempt to make moves for not one, but two, superstars, moves that would have permanently altered the team and the NBA. The Lakers even managed to put one of those moves into action, only to have it blow up in their faces in the now infamous Chris Paul debacle. The Lakers may be a team in flux, with a new coaching staff, and new systems on both sides of the ball. But they wanted to be more in flux than they are.

However, with the season a week away, Chris Paul guaranteed to play for a different Los Angeles team for at least two seasons, and the Orlando Magic doing everything they can to shut down trade talk for at least a couple months, it is time to embrace the Lakers as currently constructed, because every passing day makes change to this roster less and less likely, at least in the short term. Today, we start with an overview of the part of the roster that, despite being the most weakened in the offseason, remains the Lakers' biggest strength: The Frontcourt.

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