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To rebound into a title contender, can the 2013-2014 Lakers follow the blueprint of the 2010-2011 Dallas Mavericks?

2013-05-24T17:15:17Z

As tough as a postseason-less 2013 was on the Dallas Mavericks and their fans, just three years ago, having a high-seeded playoff team didn't feel any better.

The 2010 Mavs were the latest disappointment in what felt like an endless string of them. Dallas was just four years removed from an epic playoff collapse against the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals, and three years away from losing as a 67-wing number 1 seed to the 8-seed Golden State Warriors. The 2009-2010 Mavericks had recently reloaded the team, bringing on former All-Stars like Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd in addition to incumbent All-Stars Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. They took a very good 55-27 record and a 2^nd seed into the playoffs, but like their predecessors, were unceremoniously dismissed; this time it was a first round loss to the 7^th seeded San Antonio Spurs in 6 games. Even as solid as their regular season was, the future didn't look terribly bright for Dallas. The ghosts of their past playoff failures seemed to haunt the team every spring, which included an aging core of Nowitzki (31), Marion (31), Brendan Haywood (30), Terry (32) and Kidd (36). Suffice to say, the Mavs weren't getting much younger. Not all was lost--after all, Dirk was still an All-Star, the team had a very good and very underrated coach in Rick Carlisle and an excellent owner that took annual financial losses to make sure his team had everything necessary to remain competitive. However, few expected that the team was close to having the makings of a championship core. 2010-2011 was supposed to be just another year in which the Mavericks were a potent squad, but ultimately an also-ran in the race for the chip.

But after a shrewd series of moves in the summer of 2010, and then into the season, the pieces for a championship contender had quietly fallen into place:

July 13, 2010: Traded Matt Carroll, Erick Dampier, Eduardo Najera and cash to the Charlotte Bobcats for Alexis Ajinca and Tyson Chandler. Signed Ian Mahinmi as a free agent.

September 27, 2010: Signed Brian Cardinal as a free agent.

January 24, 2011: Signed Peja Stojakovic as a free agent.

At the time, none of these moves were considering even close to resembling significant transactions. Chandler was coming off an injury-filled year in Charlotte, and even worse, was traded to the Mavericks for the mere price of Erick Dampier's expiring deal. The prevailing sentiment that summer was that Dampier's eight-figure contract would be a key asset in claiming another star to prop up Nowitzki. Though Chandler was considered an upgrade over Dampier's rapidly degrading corpse, he wasn't nearly the player that made him into a Defensive Player of the Year seasons later, and thus was thought of as a rather underwhelming acquisition considering the expectations. The pair of 33 year-olds in the Immortal Brian Cardinal and Peja Stojakovic were both on their way out of the league, and few thought they could continue to contribute.

By the end of June, it was clear that these acquisitions were more important than any Decision that had gone on in the summer of 2010. Chandler was the key, quarterbacking a stout defense that ranked as the league's 8^th most efficient per 100 possessions. Shouting out instructions from the paint, Tyson, as well as Marion and DeShawn Stevenson created a deceivingly tough inside-out D that bulldozed their way to a solid 57-win season and an eventual 4-2 victory over the Miami Heat in the Finals for the franchise's first title. That year's edition of the Mavericks weren't the most athletic cats in the world, but Chandler was so excellent defensively that he often made up for the shortcomings of his teammates (a premonition for his future tenure with the New York Knicks). The Mavericks were the oldest team in the league (average age of 30.9 years), but they didn't resemble the porous Dallas teams of old--this team was tough as hell, physical and very, very intelligent.

Though it was clearly the defense that propelled the Mavs to a chip, there's no denying how spectacular the offense was. They finished 1st in offensive efficiency that postseason, led by resurgent Finals MVP in Nowitzki, whose 27.7 points on .485/.460/.941 shooting is one of the great overall performances of all-time. But even more than Dirk, Dallas shot the lights out that postseason: five guys hit over 37% of their three-point attempts, which didn't include an unbelievable JJ Barea, but did include unexpected offensive contributions from Stojakovic (.377), Kidd (.374) and Stevenson (.397) (DeShawn in particular was fantastic, and may go down as the last man in NBA history to talk serious smack to LeBron and live to tell the tale).

The Mavericks formula was quite simple on paper, but extremely hard to replicate in regards to finding the personnel. They first needed a great defensive coach, who could rally his players to continue to play hard no matter who the opponent or what the score was at any point in the game. Second, they needed a transcendent scorer who was lethal from anywhere on the floor. Third, the Mavs had to have an elite defensive center that was so excellent that he'd be able to make up for the shortcomings of everyone around him. Fourth, they needed a three-point barrage that could dependably break down any opposing defense. Oddly enough, the Mavericks resembled their 2006 Finals opponents in the Miami Heat, who rode the very same formula to the title. Easy enough to identify and map out, yes. But to find that perfect mix under the terms of the modern NBA salary cap? Not so much.

Unless you're looking at the potential of the 2013-2014 Los Angeles Lakers.

Odd as it seems, the 7^th seeded "woe is me" Lake Show isn't too far off from the model that won the Mavericks a championship. It's not terribly visible to the naked eye, but next year's team could very well have a lot of the same ingredients that propelled the seemingly cursed Dallas organization to a chip. Let's go down the grocery list and check off the items:

1. The Coach

Well...I didn't say they had everything, did I?

A couple weeks ago, I examined everything that went wrong with the 2012-2013 Lakers coaches. While a lot of the burden of failure falls on a savage injury bug, even at near full strength this wasn't a great Lakers team and in turn, not a well-coached team. Mike D'Antoni wasn't by any means a terrible defensive coach, but he certainly wasn't a good, much less great one. The Lakers need a master strategist in the mold of Rick Carlisle to make this a reality.

However, it's important to give MDA credit on this front: these Lakers never truly quit on him, no matter how ludicrous the injuries got. They played hard down to the very last game of the season, and seemed to play best when the odds were stacked against them (see game #80 versus the Spurs without Kobe, home against the Oklahoma City Thunder and away without Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard in Indiana).

The Lakers can't check this item off the list right now, but the offseason hasn't even begun. It's not too far-fetched to imagine a new coach in the fold come fall, is it? D'Antoni needs to go, but his mustache can stay. That thing is magical.

2. The transcendent scorer

This article was much better supported in my head a month and a half ago, wasn't it?

A lethal offensive player that could tear apart defenses from the post to the perimeter? Until his Achilles ruptured, there was little doubt that Kobe Bryant could replicate Dirk's 2011 postseason. This injury could put a serious kink in this scenario, in addition to ruining my day whenever I think of it. Dirk Nowitzki had changed his game from 2006 to 2011, becoming a much sturdier post threat, as well as a continued killer from beyond the three-point line. He single-handedly carved up any Miami defender that came his way, and if ever doubled, was able to pass out to a cadre of willing shooters.

If Kobe comes back healthy and makes the proper adjustments towards becoming a top-notch offensive option, which many suspect he could, then item number 2 remains viable.

3. The defensive center

Like the previous two, this box might not just remained unchecked--it could completely disappear off the docket.

This might come as a surprise, but Lakers center Dwight Howard is a free agent this summer. Yes, this shocked me too when I read it on basketball-reference.

A healthy Howard doesn't just serve as a stand-in for Tyson Chandler here--he could be an even better and more effective version of him. Lakers fans everywhere got a glimpse of the player Dwight is when not hampered recovering from surgery in his stellar last 10 or so games of the regular season. He blew up pick and rolls with regularity, dominated the boards and scared off any driving guard who had the temerity to look up at the rim. While he was vocal with his teammates throughout the year, he continued to be the general on defense, but also had the ability to back it up on his end. In short, Howard was an absolute terror while guarding the rim and more than made up for the defensive lapses of all his aging, somewhat immobile teammates.

Howard's potential fits 2011 Tyson Chandler exactly, from his capabilities to the personnel surrounding him.

4. The three-point shooting

Today, Jason Kidd is old as hell and can't scorer a lick. He went scoreless in his last 9 playoff games this postseason. But 3 years ago, he was still old as hell and could at least stroke the three-ball. Aided by Stevenson, Stojakovic and Stevenson that helped shore up the long-range bullpen, the Mavericks always had a bailout option for a posting Nowitzki or a driving Marion and Barea.

To replicate this sort of production, the Lakers must have healthier seasons from Steve Nash and Steve Blake, steadier shooting from Jodie Meeks and continued improvement (and confidence) from Darius Morris, whom I suspect will be a big part of LA's rotation next season. Except for the crapshoot of health, these aren't terribly unfair expectations for these players. Meeks has the stroke and trigger to be an elite gunner, and though Morris' lock and load shot is very slow, he has the ability to hit 37% or better. For Blake and Nash, the obvious question here is whether or not they can get on the court, but again, it's the luck of the draw at that point. It's important to note that the 2011 Mavericks got 80 games from Kidd (37), 82 from Terry (33), 80 from Marion (32) and 73 from Nowitzki (32). It's not out of the question that the Lakers could simply be as lucky next year as they were unlucky (and old) this year.

Of course there's also the miscellany that connects the two teams. The 2012-2013 Lakers were the oldest squad in the league, exactly like the 2010-2011 Mavs. That Dallas team also had it's fair share of dramatic veteran personnel additions like this year's Lakers, including Kidd and Marion. Most importantly, the league and it's pundits had largely written off the Mavericks as title contenders after so much disappointment. Almost no matter what their moves this offseason, it's hard to see the Lakers interpreted as anything but a fringe contender, at best.

This isn't a perfect formula, nor is it a perfect comparison. Kobe's injury puts a gigantic wrench in the blueprint, especially seeing the dour results from any player trying to regain elite form after such a devastating malady. Howard's return is far from a lock, especially if you believe Ken Berger's article from Sunday. Mike D'Antoni might have a solid chance to return as coach, which could effectively punt the possibility of a top-10 defense from the Lakers' future. The 2011 Mavericks also had the extreme fortune of playing LeBron James before his transformation into a true, postseason world-beater. The Lakers would almost undoubtedly have to go through the Heat in order to win next year's crown, and the way that Miami and James are playing, even following the plan of the 2011 Mavs might not be enough.

The most salient point here is that the Lakers could come very close to replicating a championship team without having to do much heavy lifting behind a very restrictive CBA. LA is roughly $30 million into the luxury tax for next year, but the good news is that the Lakers could still fulfill these checklist items: Howard could be re-signed, Kobe can rehab back to form, the shooters are already on staff and a new coach can be hired and fired at management's leisure.

Make no mistake--the odds of everything here falling into place like so, and then being blessed to make it through the postseason unscathed injury-wise is very unlikely. But the fact that there is hope for success without completely starting over, cutting a living legend like Kobe Bryant or losing Dwight Howard to free agency should be emboldening to Lakers fans everywhere. Unlike a future with Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, or having a need like "an elite scorer", LA has very few requirements that would get them close to resembling a team that won the title just two seasons ago. That's not half bad.

--Mambino

--Follow this author @TheGreatMambino

The Credits: "Payback" - Lakers Links

2013-05-24T15:08:57Z

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Kobe Bryant named to All-NBA first team for record-tying 11th time

2013-05-23T17:24:54Z

Kobe Bryant has been named to the 2013 All-NBA first team, the NBA has announced. Bryant is joined by Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. This will be the eleventh time that Bryant will receive All-NBA first team honors, and the eighth straight season. Bryant has tied the NBA record for most first team selections.

Bryant averaged 27.3 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting while also tying a career-high with 6 assists per game. He also had a career-high .504 effective field goal percentage. His offensive brilliance through the 2012-2013 season was on clear display as he took the reigns as both primary scorer and facilitator within the offense, especially while both Steve Nash and Steve Blake dealt with health issues, and he once again notched a first team nod from the league.

Dwight Howard was the only other member of the Los Angeles Lakers to be named to an All-NBA team, making the third team. This will be the first time since 2007 (All-NBA third team) that Howard was not named as a first team member. Howard battled through injuries through most of the season after undergoing major back surgery and playing through a torn labrum in his shoulder.

- Drew

- Follow this author on Twitter @DrewGarrisonSBN

Kupchak: 'Players don't have to like coaches'

2013-05-23T15:35:59Z

The Dwight Howard free agency hype machine has already taken off with over a month before his contract with the Los Angeles Lakers even expires. ESPN reported that a "source" revealed Howard voiced frustration regarding Mike D'Antoni during his extended exit interview with general manager Mitch Kupchak, but Kupchak has since shot down the report saying D'Antoni was never discussed. Mark Medina of the L.A. Daily News interviewed Kupchak, who went into further detail about Howard, D'Antoni, and more.

Medina asked Kupchak how he would "characterize" the relationship between Howard and D'Antoni. Kupchak revealed that he doesn't believe players have to "like" coaches, but simply have to play hard:

"But being around as long I've been around, it doesn't bother me when I hear at some point a player didn't see eye to eye with a coach. Players don't have to like coaches. They just have to play hard. In L.A., our coaches get evaluated on wins and losses and not whether our players like them or don't like them. It doesn't matter."

When asked about the report from ESPN that Howard was frustrated, Kupchak reiterated that D'Antoni was never a discussion with Howard:

"Criticism of a coach did not come up. Our coach did not come up. In terms of the way the season went and our talent, group and players and how they think in general, I would venture to say most of our players felt this was a frustrating season and that they didn't get to show their talents as much as they would have liked to."

The full interview is a worth checking out as Kupchak reveals his thought process regarding Howard, his impending free agency, and why he's "optimistic" that Howard will re-sign with the Lakers.

- Drew

- Follow this author on Twitter @DrewGarrisonSBN

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Do players have to like coaches?

Dwight Howard Rumor: Dallas Mavericks trading 13th overall pick for cap space to make run at Howard?

2013-05-23T15:04:22Z

Are the Dallas Mavericks looking to trade out of the 13th overall pick in the 2013 NBA draft to clear cap space before making a run at Dwight Howard? ESPN reports that "multiple sources" are informing Chad Ford the Mavericks will explore trading their lottery pick for financial flexibility going into free agency:

Multiple sources have told ESPN.com's Chad Ford the Mavs are likely to shop the pick in hopes of creating the cap space necessary to make a run at Dwight Howard in free agency.

The 13th overall pick has a cap hold of $1,655,300.

Earlier in the week it was reported that Howard was "intrigued" with both the Mavericks and Houston Rockets, and will explore his free agency options before making his decision. Howard's free agency begins on July 1.

Dallas trying to shave salary to take a shot at a big name in free agency isn't an unheard of strategy for the franchise. The Mavericks have been looking to add a superstar to the team since winning the 2011 title, but missed on Deron Williams last Summer. Both Howard and Chris Paul will likely be targeted by Dallas (as well as every other team with cap space).

It's unclear if the Mavericks would be looking to only clear the cap hold from the draft pick, or tag more salary into the deal (Shawn Marion's $9 million expiring comes to mind). With O.J. Mayo opting out of the final year of his deal and both Darren Collison and Rodrigue Beaubois as restricted free agents, the Mavericks will have $37.2 million on the books if they do not bring back any of their players hitting free agency.

- Drew

- Follow this author on Twitter @DrewGarrisonSBN

The Credits: "The Last Laugh" - Lakers links

2013-05-23T14:02:15Z

That's the sound of Phil Jackson laughing on Mike & Mike yesterday morning when asked "What was your reaction when Mitch told you they had hired Mike D'Antoni?"

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The Forum: Should Lakers look to keep both Howard, Gasol? - Los Angeles Lakers Blog - ESPN Los Angeles

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LeBron’s game-winning layup at the overtime buzzer gives Heat Game 1 win over Pacers (VIDEO) | ProBasketballTalk

VIDEO: Paul George sends Game 1 to overtime with a circus 3 - CBSSports.com

Draft Primer: Searching for Contributors

2013-05-23T13:30:05Z

It's that time again. The time when we try to maintain hope in the Lakers managing the draft process well despite not reaping any concrete rewards from it for years. Of the Lakers' recent draftees, only Darius Morris holds any potential of sticking on the roster past next season and that's only if he takes the next step in his development. Year after year, the Lakers have sacrificed their first rounders for established players such as Steve Nash and Ramon Sessions or just engaged in plain old cost cutting that has come back to bite them in the rear in the long-term. One would say that there's no time like the present to correct this misuse of one of the fundamental resources for talent in the league, but the team only possesses their own second rounder and a late one at that at number 48 to restock the incredibly shallow farm of young talent they currently have.

The good thing is that the Lakers aren't looking for a central building block and just need a piece around the periphery to supplement what will still likely be a top heavy roster next year. You can also mostly boil down the Lakers' needs to three things: youth, shooting, and athleticism. Thankfully, the draft provides prospects that meet most of those criteria but not all at the same time, lest they be safely out of the Lakers' range. Of those three, shooting probably is the most important aspect, not only because it's easier to find contributors in that department that late in the draft but since designated shooters have the largest chance of making an impact early in their career.

The source of the shooting isn't necessarily important; moving up position groups, however, increases the value of the shooting and the Lakers could especially benefit from a stretch four. Dwight Howard experienced the greatest success in his career with a floor spacing big alongside him and Dwight in turn can cover for the defensive deficiencies of his frontcourt counterpart. Pau Gasol similarly can operate well in a four-out, one-in system that gives him dominion over the low block. College ball has reciprocated in that regard, giving the Lakers several options in the second round for big men who can spread the floor. This noted, the Lakers need shooting period, so whomever is the best prospect is at their spot, they should take them, position group be damned.

Those familiar with the draft process in any sport are familiar with the concept of best player available (BPA) and it applies for the Lakers here as it does to all teams. It doesn't mean that needs are irrelevant -- hence why "tiers" are common in which case you have greater freedom than you would relying on a more dogmatic ranking system -- but that most of the time, you take the better prospect and worry about the ramifications later. If the best player on the board is a point guard, for instance? You take him and worry about the fit with Steve Nash, Steve Blake, and Darius Morris later than possibly reaching for someone else at the spot.

There are obvious caveats to this approach, of course. BPA is fine as a guiding principle but it should also be tempered with a healthy amount of common sense. The Lakers shouldn't take someone who can't shoot because of how poorly it would play out for that rookie's development on a team that needs spacing for its offense to work properly. Otherwise, the Lakers have few restrictions on whom they can pick and plug into their rotation if they pan out well enough. Future upside against immediate contributors is another discussion; however, when it comes down to it, the Lakers would probably be happy with a draft pick who can stick in the league at this point.

In terms of strict positional needs, the Lakers have holes basically everywhere besides point guard, where there's a logjam at the position that's likely to stay put next season, and center, seeing that they have possibly up to four guys who can man the position. Otherwise, they could definitely benefit from someone who can jump in and become a part of the wing rotation, an area that is probably going to be depleted between Metta World Peace's likely amnesty, Kobe Bryant's injury, and Earl Clark's uncertain free agent status. Even if Kobe returns early in the year, moreover, the team could likely benefit from an additional two guard between Jodie Meeks' uneven play and Kobe's ability to slide down to the three. In comparison, the utility of a stretch four might appear diminished, although given the aforementioned fit with Dwight and Pau, it should be something the team takes a look into.

In terms of evaluation, the upside aspect is a big part and athletic numbers play a significant role in this. It is important to couch the combine testing with a healthy amount of skepticism. Let us refer to what yours truly said in my draft primer two years ago:

The athletic testing is simultaneously determinative and not so – on one hand, you can’t fake good scores, so guys who tested better than expected probably are more athletic than originally thought, but you can probably give players who had a reputation as an athletic player a break and say that they had a bad day. Take San Diego State’s Kawhi Leonard, who put up mediocre numbers in the athletic testing despite being regarded as a solid athlete in college, but as ESPN’s Chad Ford astutely notes, he didn’t warm up before the tests in a freezing gym. Moreover, there’s a big difference between athletic testing in the NBA and say in the NFL, as it’s much more difficult to apply "athleticism" in one’s game unless they have the skill set to take advantage of it. For instance, how fast one can do a three-fourth court sprint only determines really how fast you can run down the floor, not how fast you are while dribbling or under pressure. All that said, it does provide useful benchmarks against similar prospects in the past; it’s just part of the overall evaluation process. Finally, this list is obviously not intended to be exhaustive, but is just to illustrate some prospects the Lakers should be looking at. If you want larger breakdowns of these players, hop over to the always excellent Draft Express.

That still holds true, as anyone who has watched Leonard the past two years can attest to. It isn't to say that athletic testing isn't important, but that it's one more tool in the shed for draftniks to take into account. Same thing with college production, which you have to ground in metric tons of context. There are tons of guys who simply don't possess the athletic ability or sufficient skill to produce in the NBA as they did in college and how they produced the stats they did is important. Similarly, those who weren't that effective in college also can benefit, as many prospects thrive in the more open and flowing NBA game and not having to shoulder as large of an offensive burden as they did in college. The draft is an art as much as it's a science when it comes down to it.

As a final note, you will probably hear a fair amount of rumors between now and the draft of the Lakers trying to get into the lottery using Pau Gasol as bait. Needless to say, that's rather unlikely for the same reasons it was last year. Even if you think that Pau's value is a bit higher because he's more or less a massive expiring contract, one finds it difficult to entertain the notion of a team dealing away what could potentially be a key young player for him, even if one believes that there is a lack of blue chip talent at the top of the draft. The guys the Lakers would be interested in moving up for, moreover, are going in the top five, as Otto Porter and Victor Oladipo, both of whom would address the shooting and athleticism deficit on the wing in a huge way, won't be available.

In any case, let us proceed with the prospects that will likely be available with the pick the Lakers do have, starting with a few stretch fours and presented in no particular order:

Kenny Kadji

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
25	Miami (Senior)	12.9	6.8	0.8	47.1	35.1	66.1

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'8.75''	6'10''	242	7'3''	34.0''	38.0''	11.47	3.44	9

The main problem in analyzing Kadji's impact is that he's very old for a draft prospect, being anywhere from three to seven years older than the guys he was competing against. It also makes his long-term upside especially limited since he'll be entering what should be his prime from the moment he sets foot on a NBA court. One can also have a certain degree of skepticism at his athletic numbers, as he has a more developed body than many of his peers, but it was impressive nevertheless. For a guy not particularly noted for his athleticism, his solid vertical and middling agility alleviates some of the concern of whether he can play the four in the pros. And that's where he'll make his mark, as Kadji's range extends out to to the three-point line and do all the usual things you associate with stretch fours. His percentages fell from his prolific junior season, but Kadji still was an efficient jump shooter as a senior as he took on a bigger role for a very good Miami team.

What will change is his touches on the post, a place Miami gave him a lot of possessions, as while he had some effectiveness in that department with his long arms and decent repertoire of moves, that area is simply too crowded on the Lakers' roster. Still, it certainly doesn't hurt for him to have that in his arsenal whenever mismatches are available and Kadji has sufficient size to play the five in some smallball lineups. Defensively, Kadji was a big part of one of the best defenses in the country at Miami, and while he might have some trouble checking the perimeter in the pros, he uses his length well and he demonstrated good strength as a post defender.

Kadji's weakness on the defensive boards is something he'll have to improve on in the pros, as he was merely mediocre in that department in college despite having a physical advantage on a lot of his opponents due to his age. Having Dwight or Jordan Hill as a frontcourt companion does make that concern a bit muted, but there's no reason he shouldn't be better considering his frame. Altogether, Kadji is a fairly finished prospect and one should temper their expectations accordingly. Still, for someone who can walk in and be a part of the frontcourt rotation next to either of the Lakers' primary frontcourt players, Kadji fits the bill and the stuff in his game beyond shooting might allow him to carve out a niche in the league.

Erik Murphy

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Florida (Senior)	12.2	5.5	1.4	51.6	45.3	78.4

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'8.75''	6'9.5''	240	6'10.5''	24.5''	29.5''	12.19	3.57	13

Murphy is the classic big man shooting specialist in almost every aspect and one is tempted to make comparisons to fellow Florida alum Matt Bonner. In points per possession, Murphy was the second most efficient jump shooting big man in college basketball behind only Doug McDermott, an impressive accomplishment considering how ridiculous McDermott's stats are. Besides this, there's not a whole lot to discuss about Murphy's game: he's going to space the floor as a spot-up shooter from behind the arc, be involved in the pick-and-pop, and act as a release valve for the post. There are few guys with a better resume for a specialist role in this regard and Murphy would go a long way towards fixing the spacing issues that bedeviled the Lakers' offense last season.

Just don't expect a lot else, as Murphy's rudimentary post game at Florida won't translate at all in the pros, especially considering that Murphy finished poorly in just about every athletic category. That makes it easy to explain his lackluster rebounding and brings up the pertinent question of how exactly he's going to survive in the pros defensively. Murphy won't be disadvantaged in strength matchups in the post, but his ability to check the pick-and-roll and be a factor on the perimeter is definitely in question. This noted, Murphy's shooting is good enough to more than justify a place somewhere in the pros and there are few bigs you could see as a better complement to Dwight on offense. You just have to hope that Dwight reciprocates in equal fashion on defense to cover up Murphy's faults.

Ryan Kelly

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Duke (Senior)	12.9	5.3	1.7	45.3	42.2	81.2

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'9.75	6'11.75''	228	6'11.5''	N/A'	N/A'	N/A	N/A	N/A

A similar calculus applies to Kelly, who might be even more athletically challenged than Murphy but brings more diversity in his offensive game. Kelly does all the usual stretch four things as well as having a face-up game, some ballhandling ability, and good awareness as a passer. One just has to refer to Kelly's return from injury against Miami, during which he utterly destroyed a frontline that included the aforementioned Kadji to the tune of 36 points on an incredible 93.4 TS%, including seven made threes and twelve trips to the line. He naturally isn't going to be that good in the pros and one wonders whether the free throw attempts and his ability to finish at the rim translates against better defenders, but in general, Kelly brings more to the table than just his shooting.

Kelly's sufficiently limited defensively that one wonders whether you shouldn't stick him at the five in the NBA from time to time considering how small the league has gone nowadays. Laker fans with memories of the Earl Clark experience there might cringe, but Kelly is a more polished offensive player than Clark was coming out of Louisville, the difference between prospect Kelly and Clark a few years into his career notwithstanding. Regardless, you would take Kelly over Murphy with the hope that the former develops into a more well-rounded offensive player, but Murphy has a much more pronounced strength in his shooting. In the late second round, you might want to err on the side of caution for the guy who has a clear NBA skill.

Grant Jerrett

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
19	Arizona (Freshman)	5.2	3.6	0.5	40.9	40.5	81.8

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'8.75''	6'10.25''	232	7'2''	28.5''	34.0''	11.85	3.51	2

Jerrett is the rare exception for a team in the late second round in that he's exceptionally young for a prospect in that range and one of the few guys available that holds the promise of future upside. One of the top high school players of his class, Jerrett played poorly as a freshman and was never able to really ingratiate himself to the NCAA game. Combine that with the fact that his frame still needs to fill out and he needs to take some walking classes from whatever trainer Andrew Bynum found to improve his gait and you have a project that probably isn't going to be ready to contribute upon coming into the league. You could excuse his college production if his upside was more prominent, but Jerrett's athletic numbers don't really provide such a justification.

What Jerrett does have nailed down is the floor spacing aspect as a big man, nailing a solid percentage of his shots as a spot-up man from behind the arc. If he can have any impact as a rookie in the league, it will be in this aspect, although he'll need heavy seasoning in the D-League before he's ready for the real NBA game. The problem for Jerrett is how one-dimensional his game is, as good as that single skill is -- he was one of the best shooters at the combine and is about as natural of a shooter as you will find for the position -- and he's remarkably limited as a cutter, post man, or pretty much anything that doesn't involve an open jump shot.

This lack of polish extends to the defensive end, as while Jerrett was respectable in straight-up post defense, he has a long way to go before he's ready to check players on the perimeter as part of his responsibilities as a modern day NBA four man. His rebounding was also very poor and while a fully healthy Dwight Howard does offer a enormous presence there, one would also like to see more production from Jerrett in this regard. In all, Jerrett simply isn't going to produce all that much as a rookie, but proper development might yield promising results down the road. The Lakers have been awful at player development recently for basically everyone not named Andrew Bynum, but if they think they can bring Jerrett up to NBA speed, he might be a worthy project to invest into.

Brandon Paul

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Illinois (Senior)	16.7	4.4	2.7	40.0	32.3	73.4

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'2.75''	6'4''	201	6'10.25''	33.5''	39.5''	11.16	3.37	15

The difficulty in parsing Paul's game is discerning how much his statistics suffered under the massive offensive burden he had to shoulder for the Illini this past year. His 29.2 usage rate, only a stone's throw away from the same percentage of possessions Kobe Bryant had to handle for the Lakers last season, makes his so-so 53.7 TS% seem much better in context, although shot selection will be a concern for him at the next level. Needless to say, playing like Kobe and chucking up nearly seven threes a game, a number excessive even for Kobe, at only a 32.3% clip isn't going to fly in the big leagues. All this said, using Paul in isolation and off the dribble isn't entirely unjustified, as he has an explosive first step and sufficient quickness to succeed in that regard.

That might foretell his future in the NBA as a dynamic combo guard who can come off the bench and score in bunches, but Paul does have the potential to shed that label and develop into a more well-rounded player if he improves on his shot selection. All the tools are there for a potentially good NBA player, as Paul's athleticism numbers were solid and he possesses a long frame with that 6'10'' wingspan and strong base -- recall that those reps are more difficult the longer your arms are; for Paul to beat everyone else mentioned here says something of his physical gifts -- to succeed in the league playing above the rim. This also translates into the defensive end, as while Paul's effort waned and waxed in college likely as a result of his offensive load, his length and agility give the means to be an effective player on this end at the next level.

Of course, Paul's possible ascendance if he pans out is limited by the fact that the Lakers have an all-world player at the two guard position that they expect to return next year in some capacity, but the Lakers desperately need a player like Paul to inject some energy into what was a moribund perimeter unit outside of Kobe. Not all guys manage to successfully shed the gunner label and adopt a more measured game in the pros, so success certainly isn't assured for Paul in this aspect or he would be hearing his name being called somewhere in the lottery. There are simply few players available in the area the Lakers are picking in that offer that shot in the arm for the team's perimeter game as Paul does.

James Ennis

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Long Beach State (Senior)	16.0	6.5	2.1	48.3	35.8	85.3

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'5.75''	6'7''	206	6'11.5''	N/A	N/A'	N/A	N/A	N/A

Ennis is another prospect that has all the physical advantages one could want from the wing position, but unlike Paul, he has to acquire the requisite skill set to utilize that athleticism instead of just having to focus it into a more manageable approach. A high leaper who can throw down some nasty dunks, Ennis lacks the ballhandling ability to be a consistent factor outside of transition in this regard and he will have to improve on this in the pros. Thankfully, he does have decent spot-up shooting ability and his overall efficiency numbers as a senior at Long Beach State were very impressive. A solid 83.4% mark at the line also says good things about his shooting ability in general and he should be able to be effective as a role player initially at the next level if both his finishing and shooting translate.

One would think that such a long athlete with considerable explosion would be a terror on the defensive end, however, and Ennis still hasn't put things together in that regard. His awareness and effort will have to improve, especially the latter considering that his defense will potentially be a major calling card of his in the pros should he pan out. It speaks to the notion that Ennis is still more athlete than basketball player, as while his shooting indicates that he does have the potential to expand his skill set, he has a lot of learning to do before settling into a role at the next level. As with Paul though, the Lakers' deficit in wing athleticism is so pronounced that Ennis could noticeably help them, even if his game is nowhere near as polished as Paul's is.

Deshaun Thomas

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
21	Ohio State (Junior)	19.8	5.9	1.3	44.5	34.4	83.4

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'5''	6'7''	220	6'10''	28.5''	32.0''	12.94	3.53	5

Watchers of college ball should be very familiar with Thomas, who has been a big part of Ohio State's recent success. Only Paul and Penn State's D.J. Newbill had a higher usage rate in Big Ten ball than Thomas and he still maintained a solid efficiency with a 55.1 TS%. This is largely due to his ability to score the ball in a myriad of ways, from catch-and-shoot opportunities to putting the ball on the floor and scoring in the post. Whatever role Ohio State needed him to fill on offense, he did so and for the most part, with success. The issue in seeing how this works on the next level is that Thomas' athleticism is lackluster and he didn't exactly play above the rim, an issue in a league that has gotten increasingly athletic on the interior.

This means that to see the best returns from Thomas on offense in the pros, he will have to play as a smaller four, but his poor rebounding numbers and size make that a difficult proposition. Similarly, Thomas posted the worst agility numbers at the combine and he will be severely disadvantaged as a wing. To top it off, Thomas has never been particularly attentive or consistent on the defensive end and that just compounds his physical limitations at either forward spot. This makes it very difficult to foresee Thomas' future in the pros and his fit on an already athletically challenged Laker team is questionable seeing that he would probably have to carve out a place on the wing. He may be a case of an excellent college player who simply didn't have the tools to see the same success in the NBA.

James Southerland

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
23	Syracuse (Senior)	13.3	5.2	1.1	45.0	39.8	78.9

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'7''	6'8''	221	7'1''	29.0''	32.0''	10.90	3.38	5

Southerland projects as the classic three-and-D prospect who can check wing players well and nail a three spotting up from behind the arc, something that basically described what he did at Syracuse. That's pretty much the ceiling for Southerland's game, as while he's mobile and posted a decent lane agility score for a wing, he's limited in terms of explosion and doesn't possess the skill set to be effective in other areas. He did run off screens for midrange shots and cut to the basket once in a while for Syracuse, but for the most part, his college play has pretty firmly stated what kind of player he could be in the pros. The only difficulty is parsing out how Southerland's individuald defense is considering Syracuse's zone, but between his length and decent lateral quickness, he has the tools to be effective at the next level.

Along with a dedicated shooting specialist like Murphy, Southerland would probably represent a desire for a safe pick at 48, which isn't a bad approach given that the Lakers could really benefit from plugging a serviceable player into their wing rotation. One can make arguments for either upside or safety and both paths are littered with suitable numbers of busts to make such a choice entirely context dependent. Either way, Southerland should be a choice that Lakers fans could be fairly happy with.

B.J. Young

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
19	Arkansas (Sophomore)	15.2	3.5	3.4	44.9	22.7	66.9

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'2.25''	6'3.5''	179	6'8.25''	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

The exact opposite applies for Young, who was once a lottery prospect after a torrid freshman season and lost essentially all of that good will by falling to earth in his sophomore year. The biggest culprit was that he simply forgot how to shoot; his .504/.413/.743 averages as a freshman stand in stark contrast to his recent play and his usage rate was roughly the same both years. Perhaps it was a result of his attempt to be more of a distributor as a sophomore, as Young can be safely labeled a combo guard, not having the passing ability to play the point and is a bit on the short side for the two even his wingspan does compensate for that a bit. At least initially, he probably will be coming off the bench as a change-of-pace player.

In that department, however, Young fits the bill in almost every respect. He has great explosiveness and speed and was one of the best transition players in college basketball last year. On the Lakers, he might have to be a one man break, but he can definitely push the pace and thrive in an uptempo system. The loss of his shooting ability hurt him in the halfcourt and his future will largely be tied to how well he recovers he is a creative scorer in isolation or off the pick-and-roll and is very good finishing against contact. As mentioned, his distributing skills perked up as a sophomore, so he could perhaps handle the point in a limited capacity, but most of the time, he's going to be looking for his own shot.

As with most players who handled that kind of offensive burden, Young's defensive effort was inconsistent, but as with Paul, he has the tools to be a solid contributor if his awareness and energy improve. When considering the ceiling of any of the players here, Young's might be the most intriguing since he probably would have gone in the late lottery if he declared last season. Even now, he's only 19 and should he recover his jump shot, he could be a very effective player in the pros. The boom-or-bust factor is a significant factor here, but the Lakers probably should jump over a player with Young's potential late in the second round.

Solomon Hill

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Arizona (Senior)	13.4	5.3	2.7	45.8	39.0	76.6

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'5.5''	6'7''	226	6'9''	29.5''	37.5''	10.77	3.19	14

Hill fits into a similar role as Southerland does at the next level, although he has more promise as an offensive player. Although his ballhandling is so-so, Hill had some success as a slasher and getting to the line at Arizona and he pairs this with solid accuracy as a spot-up shooter from behind the line. His solid athletic numbers at the combine help him a lot in this regard, as he didn't really profile as a leaper in college or that he possessed good lateral quickness. This doesn't mean that he's necessarily going to take on a big offensive role at the next level or become a major contributor, but that he has the tools to be effective in areas outside of spot-up shooting, an activity that just about every rookie will see a lot of time doing should they manage to crack the rotation.

Those numbers might be deceiving as well, seeing that Hill had a hard time trying to contain dribble penetration at Arizona. He performed well within Arizona's team defensive concept, however, and his strong frame and decent size for the wing should help in this regard, although he'll have to make up ground in that area as a rookie. Nevertheless, Hill projects as a fairly solid wing reserve at the next level and while not spectacular, he could possibly be more than just a specialist and bring immediate production..

Nemanja Nedovic

Age	Team (Homeland)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
21	Lietuvos Rytas (Serbia)	9.8	2.5	2.1	36.7	38.1	70.0

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'2.80''	6'4''	195	6'5''	32.5''	41.0''	N/A	3.26	N/A

One of the few international prospects to merit a mention here, Nedovic is a really athletic combo guard, as his 41 inch vertical can attest to. As with most European players, his statistics are rather deceiving as it depends on heavy amounts of context, seeing as the level of competition can widely vary depending on the club. In Nedovic's case, his team Lietuvos Rytas, the same place Jonas Valanciunas called home before coming to the NBA, was part of the Euroleague, the highest level of competition in Europe. As such, Nedovic's performance as a 21 year old is rather impressive and it speaks well of his potential. The primary reason he isn't inching up draft boards is that he still has a lot of developing to do and he doesn't have a clear position. He has great size for the point guard position but doesn't have ideal distributing instincts and is undersized for the two, especially since he doesn't have an outstanding wingspan to compensate for his short stature.

Pretty much every part of Nedovic's game is a work in progress, moreover, as his ballhandling, finishing ability, and shooting all need work, although he has improved on the latter item quite a bit. He would be best as a secondary creator on the wing playing alongside a better distributor, as he does have some skill in the drive-and-kick game as well as going off the pick-and-roll due to his explosive first step. His defense, unfortunately, is also far behind his physical gifts, as he has to acquire better fundamentals and learn how defend on the highest level. Ultimately, Nedovic strikes one as a possible draft-and-stash pick that the Lakers can keep in Europe as he develops. Given their payroll situation and depending who else is on the board, this may be a good move that could pay dividends down the road.

Michael Snaer

Age	College (Year)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%
22	Florida State (Senior)	14.8	4.5	2.5	42.5	38.4	81.7

Height w/o shoes	Height w/shoes	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical (no-step)	Vertical (max)	Lane agility	3/4 court sprint	Bench press
6'3.5''	6'4.5''	201	6'8''	32.0''	37.0''	10.92	3.20	10

Last in our list, Snaer might be the most polished defensive prospect of all the above players, combining solid quickness, instincts, good wingspan for the two guard position, and experience in a heavy defense-first environment at Florida State. His offensive game hasn't quite picked up to that defensive reputation, as he's a so-so ballhandler who struggles inside the arc finishing at the basket and converting against active defense off the dribble. A mediocre college PER of 18.37 underlies what has been an underwhelming offensive portfolio for him, even if one considers how much of Florida State's offense he had to run on his lonesome.

He is, however, a good spot-up shooter from behind the arc and this has been a consistent strength of his throughout his career. Whether he can develop elsewhere is an open question, especially at the two guard spot, but he comes into the league with two NBA ready skills that can translate at the next level. His limitations offensively might be irksome considering that the Lakers need creators in that department, but getting a three-and-D guy who can be plugged into the wing rotation is rarely a bad thing either.

And there we have it. There are other prospects available at this range that the Lakers could have their eye on, of course, and the board could certainly change between now and draft day for various reasons. The goal here was to illustrate the kind of prospects the Lakers could target and put some names out there for discussion. While the team has historically been rather cost adverse in using the draft, this could change for that very reason next season since the team might prefer paying a second rounder a tiny salary in lieu of signing someone to fill a slot in the wing rotation. The goal in general is to increase the team's athleticism, overall dynamism, and ability to space the floor, but when it really comes down to it, the Lakers will probably be happy with a player that manages to stick on the team.

If we were to hazard a guess at this juncture, either Brandon Paul, B.J. Young, or Erik Murphy would be the likely choices, whether for perimeter athleticism or shooting from the four spot respectively. Still, pretty much any of the above players could fill a role on the team should they pan out. The challenge for the Lakers will be working against their recent draft history and finally coming out of the fray with the diamond in the rough that they desperately need in a summer with very limited resources available towards improving the team.

Follow this author on Twitter @brosales12.

For Dwight Howard, the myth of the "extra year" might be real

2013-05-22T19:30:18Z

Dwight Howard isn't going to walk away from an extra $30 million dollars.

Some idiot ... or some genius

There are few things that frustrate me more than the above quote as it pertains to free agency in the NBA. It is the biggest canard in sports, the idea that the "home" team (i.e. the team that owns a player's Bird rights) in any free agency situation has a HUGE advantage in obtaining the signature of a franchise free agent. Dwight Howard's involvement in the quote is immaterial; somebody, somewhere, will make the same argument about Chris Paul. It's the same argument people made about LeBron James, and the argument will get dusted off any time a free agent becomes available who is worth more than the maximum contract they are allowed to sign under the rules of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement. There's just one problem ... under normal circumstances, the argument is absolute bullshit.

If Dwight Howard decides to walk away from the Los Angeles Lakers this off-season, he will not be walking away from $30 million dollars. Yes, the Lakers can offer Dwight Howard a contract worth $119 million dollars. Every other team in the league can only offer Dwight Howard a contract worth $87 million dollars. So yes, if Dwight Howard walks away from the Lakers, his contract will be $31.4 million less than it could have been. But, the calculation of this net figure which makes it seem like the home team in free agency has such a compelling advantage is based on the length of the contract. The home team in free agency is allowed to offer a player a fifth year on his contract, and the rest of the league can only offer a four year deal. A whole extra year in a max deal is worth a whole lot of money (especially since the year in question is the last year). So what's the problem? Why is the statement above about leaving $30 million on the table so terribly misinformed?

Because that extra year doesn't just go away if a player signs somewhere else. The player doesn't die. He isn't forced to take a year off. That's what makes the $30 million number so ridiculous. The player does not lose $30 million, the player simply has to enter free agency again one year earlier than he otherwise would have if he stayed with the same team. And it just so happens that franchise players tend to stay franchise players, which means that, under most circumstances, the player's next free agent deal is likely to be a new max contract. Add in the first year of the player's new deal, and that $30 million number disappears. If you have a choice between two grocery stores, and you need dog food that one of the stores doesn't have, do you save $20 by not shopping at the store that has the dog food? Not unless you plan on starving your dog.

No, the real difference between the deal that Howard could obtain from the Lakers versus what he could get from any other team with the cap space to offer him a max contract is based entirely off of the difference in allowable raises in per year income. A "Bird rights" contract can include yearly raises of 7.5%; all other contracts are limited to yearly raises of 4.5%. The interest gets compounded over the course of the contract, so over the course of a deal, the difference is about $6.8 million. That's not nothing, but it isn't very much in comparison to the large dollar amounts being thrown around with these contracts in general. For those of you averse to "the maths", here's a handy little table that breaks down the comparison.

Bird Rights	Salary	Raise %	Raise Total	Non-Bird	Salary	Raise %	Raise Total
Current	19,536,360				19,536,360
Year 1	20,513,178	7.5	1,538,488	Year 1	20,513,178	4.5	923,093
Year 2	22,051,666	7.5	1,653,875	Year 2	21,436,271	4.5	964,632
Year 3	23,705,541	7.5	1,777,916	Year 3	22,400,903	4.5	1,008,041
Year 4	25,483,457	7.5	1,911,259	Year 4	23,408,944
Year 5	27,394,716			Year 5	24,579,391*
Total	119,148,559			Total	112,338,687

*Assumes player receives new max deal, worth 105% of his previous year's salary.

I'm not a multi-millionaire star athlete, but if I already stood to make $110 million dollars over the next five years, I wouldn't let a scant $7 million stand in my way of choosing to play where I wanted to without considering the money. Under normal circumstances, the additional funds Los Angeles are able to offer Dwight Howard should not be their primary selling point.

Then again, Dwight Howard may not be operating under normal circumstances. Dwight is just a year removed from major back surgery, and he spent much of the season operating as a shell of his previous physical dominance. By year's end, he looked much, much better, but even end-of-season Dwight was not the three time Defensive Player Of The Year monster we thought we would have. Dwight had, statistically, his worst season since his rookie campaign. His PER didn't crack 20. He failed to manage his career average in rebounding % in every month except March (and he followed March with a dismal April which featured his worst rebounding % of the season, albeit with small sample size). On the whole, the Dwight Howard of 2012-2013 does not merit a max contract. The Dwight Howard of 2013 was not a franchise player. And nobody, except possibly Dwight himself, knows whether the Dwight Howard of 2014 will be more like the 2013 version or an earlier vintage.

It seems clear to me that Howard was never 100% last year, even at the very end. That he never fully recovered from back surgery, even after more than a year, is not indicative that he never could, but it is a mild concern. The concern is exacerbated by the fact that Dwight relies on his athleticism far more than he does anything else. We're not talking about Tim Duncan here. Dwight Howard is ... not particularly skilled, especially on the offensive end of the ball. So, if he never recovers 100% of his previous athleticism, every little bit lost will cost him double. Howard may be much better next year than he was for most of this past season, but he may also never be the same dominant force that made his impending free agency as important as LeBron's. We won't know for sure until that future arrives, no matter what uniform Dwight decides he wants to wear.

Of course, what we know and don't know doesn't matter very much. What Dwight Howard knows, or doesn't know, is what is important. If Dwight has absolute confidence that his recovery is proceeding according to plan, that there will be no ill effects on his game by the time next season rolls around, then the myth of the fifth year won't have much of an impact on his free agency decision. If, however, he is uncertain about just how much of his game he will be able to recover, or worse, he knows that he'll never be the same player he once was, then that fifth year becomes mighty important. Right now, Dwight Howard is considered a franchise player on reputation alone. The next time he hits free agency, he will be either 31 or 32 years old, and his reputation as a player will have been re-written many times over. If Dwight has concerns that he might not be considered a franchise player in 4 years, then the five year contract might be too good for him to pass up, because he really will be walking away from $30 million dollars by not taking it.

Therein lies the problem for the Lakers. From the outside looking in, it would appear that Dwight didn't particularly enjoy his year in Los Angeles. Between the frustrations of his and the team's performances, the perceived friction between him and certain teammates and coaches, and the magnifying glass that is the LA sports media, it's easy to come to the conclusion that he might be happier elsewhere. Of course, there are plenty of great reasons why he'd want to stay in purple and gold: LA remains a cultural and environmental treasure compared to Dwight's other options, and the Lakers have a rich history and commitment to winning at all costs that should appeal to any superstar. The Lakers will be dominant again at some point in time, whether Dwight Howard is involved or not. That kind of confidence in a franchise's commitment could be worth its weight in gold. The Lakers will offer Dwight a max deal, because he has shown enough to make us believe that he could be a player worthy of that contract. But make no mistake, there is risk for the Lakers in offering Dwight such a deal. If, at some point last season, Dwight reached the peak of what he will be in the future, then his contract will be a significant anchor by the time a 4th or 5th year rolls around.

Dwight Howard should do what is best for Dwight Howard. That might be signing in Houston, where the team looks more ready to compete immediately and the spotlight shines a little less brightly. That might be going home to Atlanta. Or it may mean staying put, because you really can't live in a nicer place than Southern California, and the Lakers offer Dwight a chance at the kind of legacy you can't get anywhere else. Or, it may mean taking the money grab, signing the most lucrative contract he possibly can, because he knows or suspects that he may not have the option to do so the next time his contract comes up for negotiation. Two of those options end up with Dwight back on the Lakers for the next five years, but only one of those options is desired.

It is for that reason that the possibility of Dwight Howard leaving Los Angeles in free agency elicits no response from me besides a shrug of the shoulders. Dwight leaving would be a blow, but one from which the Lakers could very quickly recover with gobs of cap space in 2014 and (probably) a high draft pick in next year's lottery. That is hardly the worst case scenario.

The best possible outcome for the Lakers is for Dwight Howard to re-sign with the team. The worst possible outcome for the Lakers is for Dwight Howard to re-sign with the team. Should Howard remain a Laker, only he will know which situation is which for a long time to come.

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For Dwight Howard, the myth of the "extra year" might be real