FanPost

Predicting Potential Free-Agency Scenarios

It's the eve of the 2015 NBA free agency season. The Lakers, for the first time in a long time, are set to be major players this summer. Unless the Lakers completely strike out, I don't see the Lakers rolling the cap space into next summer. So we're looking at them spending at least $10-$15M in long-term money this summer.

Below, I've thought of some scenarios of how Mitch & co. might go. Some are super sexy and border unrealistic, while some are more tame. Before we delve into the scenarios, let's break down what positions the Lakers need to desperately fill this summer.

Darius from Forum Blue & Gold had a great breakdown of guys we should chase as well.

Positions of Need

1) Star and/or promising young talent - This is pretty obvious, but Lakers landing a star, even if they don't fit, is on top of the list.

2) Center - After star talent, Lakers need to fill the void at the 5 badly. After passing up on Okafor, LA needs to find a ~7 foot dude that can play at least 25 minutes a night. Preferably one that'll protect the rim/paint.

3) SF or a 3 & D wing - We need a guy that will play at least 25MPG at the SF position, and one that's preferably a "3&D" wing. If the dude is too small to play the 3 full-time, we'll still take him because we need shooting and defense on the wing. Can never have enough of those guys.

4) Backup Point - We do have D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson, but those two are young (and are they really point guards?). Having a mentor is not a bad idea at all - Nash (apparently) did help Clarkson a ton last year. If the guy can even play 10-15 MPG, that'd be a nice win as well.

5) Backup veteran wing - While Anthony Brown is old for a rookie, he's still a rookie. And who knows, we might be trading Nick Young this year. And Kobe Bryant might be taking rest days. So having a 4th wing option (after Kobe/Young/Brown) is not a bad idea.

The Scenarios

Below are the 10 scenarios I can see happening. I'll list them from most optimistic to least (while staying semi-realistic). I'll also give the odds of it happening. Before I begin, it's important to note that the Lakers have about ~$23 million to work with. So working with that restraint here.

1) Lakers Are Back Scenario

Lakers sign LaMarcus Aldridge to a 30% max deal ($19M starting salary). With only $4.2M remaining, the Lakers go after Kosta Koufos ($3.0M). With the remaining amount, Lakers sign Dorell Wright and fill out the roster with Andre Miller (for vet's min).

-Lakers get their star (for whatever reason LMA wants to come...), Koufos gets a starting gig in the NBA (which could set himself up nicely for 2016, assuming a Ed Davis-esque contract here), and fill out the rest with supporting vet players.

Odds: 20% (low b/c I don't see why LMA comes to LA)

2) Clippers Get Screwed Over

Lakers sign DeAndre Jordan ($19M). They fill out the rest of the roster with Omri Casspi, Jameer Nelson, and Rasual Butler.

-Lakers sign DeAndre Jordan away from the Clippers. That not only gets a star here but also fills the void at center. So with the rest, the Lakers throws rental money 1-year dudes to fill out the roster and retool fully in 2016.

Odds: 7% (I don't see why DAJ is willing to switch jerseys here)

3) Youth movement

Lakers brass decides to fully commit to the youth movement. So they throw the max (~$15M) at Tobias Harris and land him. With the rest they throw another offer sheet at K.J. McDaniels. Houston being busy with RFA Beverly and their quest for Love/Aldridge, decide to pass up on matching that ~$6M offer for KJ (McDaniels is eligible for the Arenas Provision, so LA might use that tactic) To fill the void at center, Lakers offer the Ed Davis contract to Bismack Biyombo (except they get a team option for the following year). And round the roster with Shane Larkin (reclamation project on the minimum).

-LA fills needs at SF and backup point guard. They also get the potential young 3&D wing and defensive center.

Odds: 5% (This would be a major paradigm shift for LA to go through this route)

4) Young But Not Too Young Movement

Greg Monroe signs for the max (~$15M). LA signs Al-Farouq Aminu for $6M. With the rest LA brings in Ish Smith & Luke Babbitt to fill out the roster.

Odds: 25% (Monroe has interest in NY, and Aminu is bound to get interest from teams that have shooting but lack defense).

5) Plan Fill Out The Roster

Lakers sign Danny Green to a $13.5M/year contract. With $6.5M, they re-sign Ed Davis. With the rest, LA brings in CJ Watson to solidify the backup PG position. Round out the roster by bringing in Derrick Williams as a reclamation project at SF.

-Lakers look to just add quality players and try to land the stars next year.

Odds: 35% (Would add quality to the team, but not necessarily anything major)

6) Plan B

Robin Lopez signs for $13M. Arron Afflalo comes back home for $8.5M. With only ~$1.5M left, LA brings in Jose Barea to solidify the backup PG spot. Tayshaun Prince is brought in to fill out the SF void.

Odds: 45% (LA has a great chance of attaining RoLo. And LA has to be appealing to Afflalo as long as $ is right)

7) Plan B 2.0

DeMarre Carroll signs for $12M. Lakers bring in Kosta Koufos for $6.5M. With $4.5M left, LA brings in Jameer Nelson on a 1 year deal with a 2nd year TO for $4M. LA fills out the rest by bringing in Alonzo Gee for depth at the G/F position.

Odds: 50% (No reason why LA can't nail Carroll and Koufos, especially since they'll have $5M left over, which they can use to overpay either.)

8) Plan B 3.0

Wes Matthews is brought in for $11M/year. Robin Lopez signs for $12M/year. They fill the roster out with Aaron Brooks and Richard Jefferson on veteran minimum contracts.

-LA gets a little lucky here but is able to squeeze both Blazers in that fill 2 major needs.

Odds: 20% (LA can easily nab either Wes or Robin, but both makes it a little tough. But not impossible)

9) Plan C

Tyson Chandler is signed to a 2 year, $25M deal ($12M first year). Marco Belinelli is brought in to add some veteran leadership and shooting for $5M. LA brings in Mo Williams for a $5M, 1 year deal. Caron Butler returns to LA on a veteran's minimum contract.

Odds: 35% (I think LA nabs a more quality free agent than Chandler, but they could miss out as well and be forced to settle for older guys here)

10) Plan WTF

Kyle Singler is "stolen" away from OKC for ~$5M/year. Alexey Shved is brought in as backup point/SG. Jeff Withey is our starting center. Jeffrey Taylor is brought in as a pseudo-reclamation project/depth guy.

-LA rolls cap space into 2016 by not committing a lot of money this summer.

Odds: 15% (I don't see LA rolling over ~80% of their cap space to next year. But not impossible that they decide to stealth tank again by rolling their cap $ to next year)

Overall thoughts/predictions

I'm just hoping LA fills out 1 need this summer so they can focus on other areas of need next year. Landing a star, defensive center, or a 3&D wing guy would be huge this summer.

I see them landing either Koufos or Robin Lopez.

I can see them also landing one of Danny Green, DeMarre Carroll or Arron Afflalo.

And I expect them to bring on a veteran backup PG, preferably Andre Miller (or Jameer Nelson).

And lastly, I hope they take on a reclamation project (IE- Derrick Williams) or fill the backup wing position with a veteran again (Tayshaun Prince).

Go Lakers!