Kobe Shoots Too Much - Killing our Offense?

"Kobe shoots too much"

"Kobe is selfish"

blah blah blah.

I wrote a comment response to an article written on sbnation saying the same thing. The writer (Who is a Sacramento kings fan - that's not bias..) says Lakers Offensive Efficiency falls when Kobe shoots more.

That might be true sometimes, but that doesn't mean one causes the other. Big difference in correlation and causation (sorry nerding out there). There are tons of these articles and my response is always the same. So I thought I'd post it here and see what you (hello laker fans) think. I basically posted the comment I wrote below.

------------------------ Comment Below

I read a lot of articles that try to create a "causation" argument that when kobe shoots more, lakers play more poorly. I would argue it is often the other way around.

I've watched tons of lakers games and have always noticed this:

Team shoot poorly or playing bad = kobe ends up shooting a lot more

Team is hot, playing awesome = kobe doesn't shoot as much

- (yesterday cav's game is the perfect example - 2 field goal attempts in first half - he didn't see the need to score since everyone else was playing well)


When team plays bad, they are more likely to lose, kobe tends to react by trying to will his team to win:


When the team plays bad, lakers are less likely to win. That's just how it works. In situations where the team is down or playing bad, kobe starts to take over the game more, trying to will the team to win and get some momentum for the team. He is able to sometimes, sometimes he is not. But fact remains -when everyone is playing bad, the team is more likely to lose. So kobe ends up shooting more when the team is playing poorly - that is one of the biggest reasons there is a correlation.


When team plays great, they are more likely to win, kobe doesn't see the need to shoot in high volume:


Same the other way. When lakers are playing well and the team is shooting well - kobe ends up shooting less. Kobe's drive is to win, not score 50 points in a game (we've witnessed before if he wants to he can). If lakers are clicking on all cylinders, kobe doesn't shoot as much. Yesterday he only took 2 shots in the first half because there really wasn't a need. Ended up with 10 attempts in the entire game). Everyone was shooting well. Now if the entire team is doing well, of course they are more likely to win a game. Thus another correlation between less shots and winning games. But one didn't necessarily cause the other.


When team plays great and go up by a lot, they are more likely to win, kobe plays less minutes, results in less shots:


Also consider that when lakers as a team plays well and are up by a lot kobe plays lot less minutes, sometimes not playing at all in the fourth. So of course he will take less shots. In this case BECAUSE lakers are going to win anyway, kobe ends up with less shots.


Correlation is NOT Causation:


basically - lot of factors come into play - we can't just look at rough correlation and assume causation. Kobe has done too much sometimes, but to look at high level stats and make sweeping general declarations really bugts me

What are your thoughts on this?

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