Sunday Nostradamus: Predicting the 2011 Playoffs

Ahhh...late August!  It's that time of the year when your beach body tan is at peak form, you can look forward to a few weekends removed from entertaining relatives ("No, there are no sharks in that ocean Uncle Jim"), and a fresh new season of Keeping up with the "Odashians" is right around the corner.  Oh, and I guess NBA teams by this point have typically all but finalized the integral parts of their rosters...or something.

Of course, there are still some big fish aimlessly floating in the proverbial sea, but now is the time when we can cook up our initial predictions for the upcoming NBA season.

Before I lay out my predictions let me establish some context.  When forecasting a team's seed I don't take into account schedule specifications.  One team having a significantly high or low number of back-to-backs isn't going to be accounted for here.  I also don't specifically predict any injuries, but at the same time I do not operate under the belief that every team will be 100% healthy.  I may use comparative analysis on a particular team in forecasting how they will do this season.  For example, I believe that Portland will be healthier this season than they were last, and similarly Oklahoma City will not be quite as healthy as they were in 2010.  Other than that this is all just a bunch of mumbo voodoo jumbo.

For legal purposes, I must stress that I do not claim to be or in anyway be associated with Nostradamus or any other well-respected philosophical prophets.  This may or may not include Miss Cleo.

The East

8. Charlotte Bobcats

- The Bobcats, at best, managed to tread water this off-season.  They got smaller when they exchanged Tyson Chandler for Eric Dampier, but it's hard to say that will end up a bad move given Chandler's terrible production this past season.  Nevertheless, being small isn't something that's going to help you as a team, especially when you pride yourself on your defense.  A big question here is how Shaun Livingston does after having played only a combined 48 games over the past two seasons for a variety of nba teams.  Also, how will their star player, Gerald Wallace, remain healthy?  Last season he put up a career high 76 games played.  Will he be able to sustain that with his balls-to-the-wall play style that earned him the nickname "Crash"?  Luckily for the Bobcats their still leaps ahead of the likes of Indiana, Detroit, and Washington when it comes to the Eastern Conference so they should be able to sneak into the playoffs.

7. New York Knicks

- The Knicks are back, baby!!  Out of all the losers that crawled from the remains of "The Decision", New York probably had the most successful off-season.  Not only did they lock up Amare who showed us in the WCF that he still has some legitimate game, but they also traded for Anthony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf, giving them some legitimate front court depth.  They will also have Raymond Felton operating the floor at the point, a big upgrade over last year's Chris Duhon.  Amare's health will always be a question, but I think it's safe to assume that he will be more or less healthy for at least 65 to 70 games this season.  He'll put up huge numbers with his old coach and help lead his team to the playoffs where they will of course be swept in the first round.

6. Milwaukee Bucks

- Another treading water type situation here.  Milwaukee will probably be very similar to the team that they were last year.  They have some some great developing talent in Brandon Jennings and Ersan Ilyasova as well as a legitimate post-scorer in Bogut.  While they made some nice movies in the off season like picking up Chris Douglas-Roberts, they also made some that I don't like at all like acquiring Corey Magette.  Still, they remain a step above the bottom of the East and a few rungs below the top.

5. Atlanta Hawks

- Atlanta's biggest off season move thus far was locking up their star player Joe Johnson for way more money than he's actually worth.  Atlanta will remain a good team, but they still won't be contenders this year.  It's hard for me to see what direction this team is going in and I'm sure they will produce some exciting playoff basketball again this year led by 0.60 PPP average quarters.  For you non stat-heads, that's  a horrible number of points per possession.

4. Boston Celtics

- Nothing to see here folks.  Just the defending Eastern Conference champions biding their time and doing whatever they can to stay healthy in preparation of the playoffs. Boston's got quite a frontline now that they added Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal, however Perkins will likely miss at least half the season.  They'll be sure that they have some semblance of home-court advantage come playoff time, but these guys are definitely looking at the bigger picture.

3. Chicago Bulls

- A pretty substantial jump for these young guns, but it's very doable given their off season moves.  Not only did they add a legitimate all-star in Carlos Boozer, but they picked up some great ex-Jazz roleplayers in Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer.  Chicago is now one of the most complete teams in the Eastern Conference, the only questions they have are that of their inexperience and lack of size upfront.  Boozer can score and rebound, but he just can't defend legit bigs at all.  Noah does a bit of a better job, but still isn't a true center when it comes to matching up with the likes of Dwight Howard and/or Andrew Bynum.

2. Orlando Magic

- The Magic actually got worse in terms of the roster in my opinion this off season, basically opting for Quentin Richardson over Matt Barnes.  Richardson brings them more shooting which they so desperately covet, but Barnes brought them a toughness that they are still lacking which will truly manifest come playoff time.  Expect a nice regular season record out of them though with Dwight Howard controlling the paint while the likes of Lewis, Pietrus, Redick, and Nelson wreak havoc from downtown.

1. Miami Heat

- What, you were expecting someone else?  The Heat have a roster built for complete regular season dominance.  Their main concerns at this point are still legitimate:  They still don't have much of an interior presence.  But these kind of things can be masked to great extent in the regular season because game-to-game adjustments are almost non existant.  Expect the big three to be brilliant and Lebron James to continue his streak of regular season ownage, earning his new team the top seed in the East and likely overall in the NBA.

The West

8. Houston Rockets

- It's hard for me to assume that Yao will have a relatively healthy season.  Nevertheless, I think Houston is going to be a playoff team this year.  In part this is due to what I believe will be a serious drop off from Phoenix.  Even without a 100% Yao, Houston made enough splash this Summer to jump back into the playoffs.  Jettisoning Ariza in light of the surprise that was Chase Budinger was probably a good move, especially because it set them up with some tremendous back-court depth.  Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Courtney Lee?  Sign me up.  They still have serious front court issues, however, if Yao doesn't stay healthy.  Maybe Brad Miller can hit Kareem or Hakeem up this off season for some post move advice.  Or maybe both.  Can you say, Hareem?


7. San Antonio Spurs

- The Spurs will still have their big three and that automatically puts them in playoff berth.  I'd expect Tony Parker and Manu to both be healthier this year as well and have more productive seasons.  Aside from the big three, the Spurs have a lot of rookie talent which Gregg Popovich is known for extracting better than anyone else.  A big wildcard is Tiago Splitter of Brazil, who we'll get a good look at hopefully in the upcoming World Championship games.

6. Denver Nuggets

- The Nuggets exited the playoffs in about the worst way possible, getting humiliated by the lower seeded Utah Jazz (who in turn, got humiliated by the eventual champion Lakers).  It's hard to imagine them bouncing back well from last season in light of all the potential chemistry issues we've seen develop this off season.  Carmelo wants out and that is a huge, huge deal.  Can Chauncey right the ship?  Perhaps.  Perhaps not.  George Karl's health is also a huge question mark going into next season.  Either way, I'm not exactly losing sleep over the thought of these guys taking a dip in the standings.

5. Oklahoma City Thunder

- There's quite a buzz going around about the Thunder, but I'm not completely sold.  Sure I think they are now a legitimate playoff team that is going to continue to improve, but they're not quite ready to be "second best in the West".  People point to how big of a challenge the Thunder gave the Lakers in the opening round of the playoffs, but I could point right back at the Houston - LAL series from two years ago (which houston followed up by not making the playoffs at all).  The reality was that the Lakers underestimated the Thunder and only reluctantly made adjustments late in the series (Kobe wasn't on westbrook till games 5 and 6).  Also, the Thunder enjoyed some great fortune in terms of health last season.  This isn't entirely out of the ordinary -- they are a very young team.  Still, it is likely that they won't have the injury free season that they did last year.  Serge Ibaka was already injured in this years Summer League.  Regardless, the Thunder will improve on their last year's record, just maybe not as much as some people think.

4. Utah Jazz

- Losing Boozer was forseeable, but the Jazz got about as good of a replacement as they could with Al Jefferson.  The Jazz still however have some pretty substantial depth issues, especially in the front court.  Right now they only have 13 players on their roster and that includes Sundiata Gaines as well as free agent Fesenko (one of our personal favorite's here at SSnR).  Still, Deron Williams is the absolute man and will continue to be so next season.

3. Dallas Mavericks

- Some more treading water for Dallas.  Adding Chandler into the mix makes them bigger which is important in the West.  They'll likely show better chemistry as the year goes on as well than what they did in the playoffs last season, but they'll be beat out for the two seed by...

2. Portland Trailblazers

- The Blazers have a stellar team on paper.  Backcourt depth with Roy, Miller, Fernandez and/or Bayless,   front court depth with Aldridge, Oden, Pryzbilla, and Camby, and some decent wing threats in Batum and Matthews.  The big assumption I'm making here is that they'll be healthier than they have been the past couple seasons.  Nevertheless, the Blazers still managed the 6 seed last year even though Roy, Oden, and Pryzbilla missed huge chunks of time.  Look for them to come out strong this year and continue to dominate if their health holds up.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

- Do I need to even explain this one?  Can't wait for the season to start!
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That's about it!  What are your thoughts on how things will shake-out next season when all is said and done?