FanPost

Ten and O

Ok, so the media is throwing out that "When the series is tied 1-1, 28 out of 32 of Game 3 winners win the series." What bugs me about this is that this stat doesn't take into account the 1985 2-3-2 format change for the NBA Finals.  So I did some research.

Since 1985, ten times the series has been tied 1-1. In all ten instances, the winner of Game 3 won the series. That's a 10-0 record folks. Here's the results:

1985: Lakers vs. Celtics - Lakers win Game 3 as the home team, and win the series 4-2. The Lakers won Game 2.

1988: Lakers vs. Pistons - Lakers win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-3. The Lakers won Game 2.

1990: Blazers vs. Pistons - Pistons win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-1. Portland won Game 2, but this is the first time that any team, road or home, swept the middle 3 games.

1991: Lakers vs. Bulls - Bulls win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-1. They also won all 3 middle games. The Lakers won Game 1.

1992: Blazers vs. Bulls - Bulls win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-2. The Bulls won Game 1.

1994: Rockets vs. Knicks - Rockets win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-3. The Rockets won Game 1.

1998: Jazz vs. Bulls - Bulls win Game 3 as the home team, and win the series 4-2. The Jazz won Game 1.

2001: Lakers vs. Sixers - Lakers win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-1. The Sixers won Game 1.

2003: Spurs vs. Nets - Spurs win Game 3 as the road team, and win the series 4-2. The Nets won Game  2.

2004: Lakers vs. Pistons - Pistons win Game 3 as the home team, and win the series 4-1. Lakers won Game 2. This is also the first time the home team swept all 3 of the middle games. Miami would do this themselves two years later.

 

So as you can see, in these 10 instances, 7 times the winner was actually the road team. So while the odds and momentum may be stacked against us, we still have this chance. Out of 5 of the 10 instances, the team that won game 1 then won game 3, so winning Game 1 or 2 has no play on momentum for Game 3.

If we really want to look for similarities between this series and ones in the past, we MUST channel 1992's Bulls-Blazers series, and 1994's Rockets-Knicks series.

The bottom line is, if Boston wins tonight, then one of these two numbers is going to fall: 10-0, or 47-0. (And I know you guys know what the latter number means).

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