Top 8 West Predictions: 2009-2010
by Justin N. on Aug 24, 2009 10:43 PM PDT
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PrintWell! It looks like most of the roster tinkering for the summer is done...so here I am to throw out my predictions for the upcoming season! I am very excited about this season starting as it should be VERY entertaining. There are a LOT of good teams with mixes of young athleticism and veteran savvy...and then there are a LOT of bad teams with no shot at the playoffs. I better get these pretty close then, eh? If you're interested, here's what I predicted for the 2008-2009 season: http://wowriot.gameriot.com/blogs/Basketblog/Basketblog-Returns-Top-8-EastWest-Predictions-for-08-09. For tonight, I'm just going to do the West. Please post your predictions after you read!
The West
The West is interesting. Lots of changes were made along with many "upgrades", but can we honestly say any team got better? Okay, maybe Dallas and Portland...but LA? They won the title and they changed their roster, so impossible to say. San Antonio? Jefferson is an upgrade, but their key players are only getting older. New Orleans? They traded an alley-oop machine for another alley-oop machine who supposedly can play better defense, but they still have offensive woes. Here's the way I think the West will pan out
The Contender(s)
The defending champs lost a key piece in Trevor Ariza, but acquired another key piece in Ron Artest. They also retained Lamar Odom, the best player in the league not to make an all-star team / nba team / win sixth man of the year. The only thing that can slow this team down is health issues. Will players like Bynum, Farmar, and Vujacic stay healthy long enough to become consistent contributing factors? The Lakers showed last season that even injuries can't hold them back as they easily won the top seed by over 5+ games. Part of this is due to their weak division, which doesn't seem to be getting any stronger next year. Ron Artest is a question mark, but I'm going to go out on a limb (not a very long one, mind you) and say that he'll fit in well in LA and will accept his "roleplayer" role.
The Heel-Nippers
2. Portland Trailblazers
Portland is one of those teams that I think will do better in this season than they did last season. It's a scary thought for Laker fans. Even though they didn't get Hedo, Lamar, or Millsap, they still landed a big free agent in Andre Miller. If there's one thing Andre will bring to this team, it's a degree of consistency. This team's depth is off the charts now and they will be a more seasoned team ready to battle on the road this season. Oden's health is a question of course, but one can only assume it's GOT to be better than it has been. They will need him to power their defense, which also gets better with Miller in my opinion.
Richard Jefferson is a great pick-up. The Spurs will, once again, find a way to get it done in 2009-2010. Even though they will tank a few games, the Spurs will remain competitive throughout the season because they will play well on the road and are well-coached. Look for Poppovich to get the most out of his roleplayers like he always does. Their frontline is old, but they still have one of the most explosive and underrated point guards in the league and that has to count for something when you put him on a team with Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan.
Dallas is another team that I look at and can't help but think will do better next season. Mainly because they underperformed last season, but I think Shawn Marion can bring a lot to the team. He obviously plays his best when he's on a contender, and Dallas very well could be with his contributions. With Kidd and Nowitzki, Dallas has sort of a mini-big three kind of thing going on. They're still a step behind SA, Portland, and LA though and will be until they've proven they can get it done as a team.
The opposite of the Mavericks here. I look at Denver and I can't help but think that they can only do worse next season. I look at them like the 2008-2009 New Orleans hornets. They had their run, performed way better than everyone thought they would, then they lost some key depth in the offseason and came back lacking the same fire and team chemistry that got them to the top. A big x factor here is Carmelo. If he continues his amazing play from the playoffs in 2009, these guys might go as high as #2 or #3. Not having Kleiza and Dahntay is going to hurt though, unless the Nuggets can make something happen early in the season.
The Ankle-Biters
6. New Orleans
New Orleans is going to be better than they were last year. Okafor is a pretty good fit for them, but he doesn't bring much more offensively than Chandler did. Will Byron Scott find a way to get this team flowing offensively, or will Chris Paul need to average 45+ minutes a game? Look for these guys to have some shaky spots, but ultimately come together when it really counts and earn some tough wins against good competition, something they struggled with last year.
7. Utah Jazz
Utah is going to have some major chemistry issues next season. Boozer needs to be shipped out asap, but can they get anything good for him before the trade deadline? If not, is he going to play well and is the team going to accept him knowing he really wants out of there? D.Will is my favorite point guard in the league, but his team needs a major overhaul at this point. They'll be healthier than they were last season, but they won't be that much better overall. Why do I give them a better seed you ask? Well, it has more to do with the West not getting a whole lot better in the top 9 or 10 teams like I stated earlier.
The Maybe-Not(s)
Yep! A lot of people think this: No Yao, no playoffs for the Rockets who also lost Ron Artest to free agency over the summer. The Rockets, however, are still a strong and solid group of roleplayers that are well coached and will play with a huge chip on their shoulders this season. If you recall, when the Rockets trounced the Lakers twice in the playoffs, it wasn't because of Yao Ming or Ron Artest but rather guys like Aaron Brooks,Carl Landry, and Shane Battier. A big factor in them making the playoffs will be Trevor Ariza's play and I personally going to think he's going to continue right where he left off from the playoffs. Sure, the three point % won't be there, but the production, defensive intenisty, and hustle will be. Also, the key thing that separates the Rockets from the rest of the lottery in the West is this: DEFENSE.
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That sounds about right. Although I would swap Denver and Portland. Also, I think the Clips, Phoenix, or OKC have about an equal shot at 8th.
Haters beware: Kobe's drive for 5 starts now!-SLAM Magazine
yep I agree with olf and robi s
Portland and Denver should be flopped I have the Clips barely grabbing the 8 spot
Logic behind Denver/Portland?
With 0 homerism in this post
Last year wins
Denver: 54
Portland: 54
Relevant Additions
Denver: No one
Portland: Andre Miller
Relevant Losses
Denver: Kleiza
Portland: Frye/Rodriguez
Point differential
Denver: +3.4
Portland: +5.3
Every category here except for the first favors Portland. Also, Portland has it’s entire starting lineup improving this year. Roy/LMA/Oden/Batum are all getting 1 year closer to their prime. Miller should replace Blake. Denver sees their best players either already in their prime, or on the tail end/leaving their prime.
I haven’t really seen a logical argument for having Denver as a top 4 team in the West yet. Care to enlighten me?
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
its just a feeling. Until Portland shows me it can win on the road its not gonna get any props from me.
I think Denver is gonna get a huge boost in confidence from pushing the lakers to the edge last year. I think Carmelo finally understands what he has to do for his team to be good. Last year was the first time I saw him really assert himself when it mattered most, while in previous playoff matchups he just shrank away and let the lakers bend the nuggets over. I would hardly call carmelo leaving his prime. In fact i would say he hasnt even gotten into his prime, considering for most players, their prime comes at 27-30 where they have the right mix of knowledge and skill. That being said, JR smith showed some great improvement last year too. Billups you could say is leaving his prime, but he is only a year out, its not like he is Robert parish out there.
Now when you look at Portland, none of their guys have reached their prime. At 25, they are still climbing the curve to the top, sure they are close to hitting their primes, but theyre still not quite there. There is still alot of improvement in them to come within the next few years. That’s not to say I think Portland is a bad team. They are probably number 2 on the list of western teams i’d least like to play in the playoffs. But they are still young and unti; they have some big wins under there belt, they got no love from me.
In Kobe we trust!
Roger that
Just an FYI. Denver won 1 more road game than Portland last year :-)
If you do think Carmelo is coming into his own then I can see putting Denver up there… I just can’t see it competeing with Oden, Roy, LMA, Rudy, Batum all getting a year better + adding Miller. We’ll see though.
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
haha wow, you’ve mellowed out. I was expecting you to go on a rampage with stats and the everything but the kitchen sink.
yes, im aware denver wasnt much better, but they also didnt have Billups in training camp, so their was still an adjustment period. But yes, the main source of my hunch is expecting a growth in Carmelo Anthony. I’m going to go out even futher on the limb and say this upcoming year he puts up the best numbers he’s ever had,
I definately could be wrong about Denver, but its just a hunch I have.
In Kobe we trust!
Haven't mellowed at all
I’ve never minded discenting opinion if there is logic or evidence behind it. The other argument you can make for Denver is Portland’s B2B schedule. Last year it was something insane like a +12 and this year it’s a -5. That alone probably gives the Blazers 3 more losses if they play identical to how they did last year, meaning Portland has further to climb.
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
I think for Dallas to get the 3 seed...
Just about all the moves they made in the offseason have to work perfectly. That’s unlikely imo.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
i think you’re forgetting that josh howard was injured pretty consistently throughout the season. He is a big part of their game in Dallas. If he is back healthy their team will be up there. Howard, Nowistki, Kidd, terry, marion… they got the talent and depth.
but i would agree its the biggest reach i have on there.
In Kobe we trust!
Looks pretty good
1. Yeah
2-3: Spurs/Blazers should fight for this, with injuries probably deciding the winner
4-5: Ignoring my post above, Mavericks/Denver should fight for these, depending on how the Marion experiment works. (The question above should be Denver being above Portland.)
6-7: Looks good. Jazz are always a sleeper if they stay healthy, but lol at that happening.
8: Houston won’t be as bad as people think… but I think they do drop below the Suns.
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
The way I look at Portland vs. Houston:
Both teams are sort of in shambles right now, but at least Houston plays good defense. The Suns defense is going to be atrocious next season with absolutely no middle presence in the half court (Amare or Shaq…obvious choice defensively) and no perimeter stoppers at all. I think this is going to allow the Rockets to win much more consistently, especially on the road.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Word
And it could happen too. If Vegas does what I expect then Houston will be an obvious “over” bet this year. Just not sure if they’ll win the 44-45 games they probably need to beat out the Suns. They will have a reliable defense, but when Scola and Brooks aren’t hitting… they will have 5-6 minute scoring droughts as well.
Kind of interesting that polar opposites will likely be competing for the 8 spot this year.
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
errr...
yeah, meant Phoenix vs. Houston
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
houston has 0 offense. and without yao they dont have the depth to do what they did versus the lakers for 82 games.
Its a matter of whether the rockets can prevent teams from scoring more than them
or
whether the suns can outscore teams more often.
I’ll take my chances on the suns, they still have nash, stoudamire, and richardson vs. battier, scola, ariza
In Kobe we trust!
I'm curious to see if PHX will play better defense than the warriors this year.
Ya know, the 3rd best offensive team that were no where near the playoffs.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Warriors only had the 9th most efficient offense
They were just number 1 in the NBA in pace rating. Their defensive rating was 28 FWIW.
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
yes i have the clipps making the playoffs
1. Lakers (who else)
2. Spurs (they have have 1 0r 2 runs left)
3. Portland ( i give them the 3 seed bc denver lost some big pieces)
4. Denver ( if melo keeps it up they will be good bu tnot as good)
5. Dallas (i have mixed feelings about them, they could end up as high as the 3 i feel. i just have to see them play a couple games to see their chemistry)
6. Jazz (lets see if boozer isnt a distraction)
7. Houston ( all defense, no offense)
8. Clippers (if they stay healthy and hearing that davis is re-energized and motivated i think they could end up making some noise come playoff time. they have too much talent not to make it)
i would put suns in the mix for the 8 seed but nash and amare to me is not enough
What causes the Hornets to to fall off the face of the Earth?
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
People are expecting soooo much from the Clippers...
…sure they can only do better than last year…but a playoff team? No. There are still 9 legit teams in the West and 10 if you count OKC.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
I think the Thunder hype is sillier than the Clipper hype
Yes, after their 3-29 start they went a not completely terrible 20-30. Give them that for the entire season and they win 32 games. Not too awful. They also drafted a decent rookie. So logic says that getting older plus adding a contribute now type rookie will bump them up to 38-40 wins. (Still not enough for a playoff spot.)
There is still one big question mark though. Can Durant ever learn to play defense? The single best stretch of the season last year for OKC was with Durant out. They went 5-1, with a loss at NO. Now wins @Memphis, Dallas, Washington, 76ers, and @Sacramento aren’t spectacular, but they are wins. Also, the game Durant went down was @Dallas. When Durant left the game 7 minutes in, OKC was down by 6. They ended up losing by 2 in OT.
I’m not calling Durant bad… but does he really help his team? He seems to be the best example of that road map theory that someone posted a week or so back. When everything runs through him, it might hurt all of the others. And there is his defense…
OKC had given up 100+ in 12/13 games before Durant went down (LOL at Portland scoring 93…)
With Durant down they gave up 100+ in 1/6 games. Yeah…
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
agreed. Durant nor Griffiin are not gonna turn into the next MJ and Karl Malone next year. They are good, but really in one year have sucha a drastic turnaround for their teams.
Nash is too good, and Stoudamire is in a contract year. Also gentry will have a whole training camp to figure out his players and game plans rather than do it mid season. Everyone is forgetting that the Suns traded 2 integral pieces to their team, changed philosophies TWICE, had injuries to nash and stoudamire, and injected Shaq into their offense all in ONE season!
I dont think any team could go through that much turmoil and still come out remotely close to getting into the playoffs.
In Kobe we trust!
I think Phoenix & the Warriors will do better than the Rockets.
The Rockets have great defense, but it’s not enough to make up for their severe lack in offense. Unless T-mac or Yao comes back healthy midway through the season or one of their role players has a sudden growth spurt, I can’t see it happening for them.
Yao is out for year
T-Mac says he will be back halfway through at 100%. Not sure how he can know this, but so he says! If T-Mac is back they are almost guranteed a first round playoff spot (to lose with.)
Poster for next year? I'm thinking My Little Pony.
1. Lakers
2. Spurs
3. Mavericks
4. Blazers
5. Nuggets
6. Hornets
7. Jazz
8. Clippers.
This is how it’s going to be. Phoenix won’t do anything, the Rockets won’t do anything.
Meh
Eighth spot is up for grabs. It’s too difficult to make any sort of prediction at this point. All of the teams that conceivably could nab it have problems that could derail them from the start.
Houston still has the personnel to boast a top ten defense next year, but who on earth is going to score? Brooks is perhaps the only starter who can create his own shot by virtue of sheer speed, Scola can score in the post or from midrange, but isn’t a go-to guy in these circumstances with no Yao to create openings for him, and Landry may have to become a dependable 30+ minute scorer (his per-minute averages are fantastic), as everyone else is either a dedicated defensive specialist with no offensive game (Dorsey, Hayes), solely catch-and-shoot/three-point/corner shooters (Battier, Barry, Budinger), or effective only in transition or moving off the ball (Ariza, Lowry). I can definitely see them making the playoffs by virtue of how good of a defensive team they can still be and whether they really buy into Adelman’s offense, but it’s a stretch.
On paper, the Clippers have the most talented team (starting Davis-Gordon-Thorton-Griffin-Kaman, with Camby and Smith as superb subs and Telfair, Butler, and Jordan as passable backups; Sessions could be headed here also), but naturally, they’re the Clippers, could have a sub-30 win season and none of us would bat an eyelash, everyone could fall prey to some malady some time during the year, especially with the injury histories of a lot of the Clippers’ main players, and Dunleavy hasn’t proven that he can make this team more than the sum of its parts (although to his credit, his track record as a GM is pretty decent). Far too difficult to make any sort of prediction at this point. They could come out against us on opening day with the same malaise that dominated last year (especially Baron), or turn over a new leaf with Griffin leading the way.
The primary thing going for Phoenix is that their offense is still going to be awesome next season. Even last year, with the failed Porter experiment, the injury to Stoudemire, Lopez and Dragic drastically underachieving, and the midseason change of heart, Phoenix still posted the highest offensive efficiency in the league. That same core is still there (Nash, Hill, Stoudemire), Richardson could be the game-changer Phoenix thought they were trading for after a training camp under Gentry, Lopez and Dragic have nowhere to go but up, Shaq isn’t clogging the middle, and Clark was a great pickup for their draft position. Only question is whether their defense will be up to snuff enough for them to win enough games to get into the playoffs for what likely will be a first-round exit.
Per Zaig, I’m beginning to sour on the OKC love. Yes, they have a ton of great, young prospects. Yes, they’re definitely going to be good in the future and Presti should be praised (although he has to roll the dice on someone next summer to be a game-changer for this team). However, the key is 1) they’re really, really young 2) they were 29th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency last year 3) improvement from within isn’t going to be enough to catapult them into the playoffs. They do have a few things going in their favor though. First, is that Westbrook and Sefolosha are defensive stoppers-in-the-making, something that is only going to improve next year; Durant seems primed to simply blow up next season and is only going to become more and more of a terror as his body fills out; and to repeat myself, they have a ridiculous amount of young talent (Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Green, Mullens, Ibaka, White) that could realize their potential or fall flat. The last point is primarily why I think they’re not making that drastic of an increase last year. They would need everyone to blow up for a chance at the playoffs, and that means posting an above-average league defense (their future road to fame) and having an offense more than the train wreck it was last year. Given that both extremes (playoffs and a repeat of last year) are unlikely, we’re probably going to see a fair improvement, forget we considered OKC a playoff team after a while, and look forward to their future.
Past these teams, no one is getting close to the playoffs. Golden State has the talent, but unless some gears click in Nelly’s head, they’re stuck. Minnesota, Memphis, and Sacramento are all going to be downright awful.
To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
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