FanPost

Adjusted Win Shares


Seeing as how I am banned from BEdge, I will post this here and add some Lakers info at the end.  I had more stuff, but I guess my fanpost was too long because it got cut off so I axed the Fanpost and am remaking it now.

Win shares are one of my favorite forms of a player’s achievements.  The main reason for this is that it actually tries to define good defensive play.  Now, that is tough to do because no matter how much an equation tries to single one person out, teammates will have an affect.  I don’t actually believe that Hedo Turkeyglue is the 12th best defensive player in the NBA like win shares say he is, but no system is perfect and this one gets closer than most.

 

There are two other flaws with NBA win shares in my opinion.  One is that a team’s win shares don’t actually equal a team’s win like they do in baseball.  The second is that it’s not adjusted to playing time.  Yeah, playing more helps your team win more, but typically you want a player’s true productivity when judging how good they are when they are playing.  My example for this is the 2007-2008 Lakers.  They were a good team for most of the season and in the playoff mix.  Then this guy named Pau Gasol came along.  They went 22-5 with him on their team and he racked up an insane 4.9 win shares in that time.  If you just look at win shares, he wasn’t one of the most valuable players, but when you adjust for minutes played he was right with Kobe for the most valuable player on that team.

 

So, I did 2 things with win shares to creates Adjusted Win Shares (AWS), Adjusted Defensive Win Shares (ADWS), and Adjusted Offensive Win Shares (ODWS).

1. I fixed them so that every team’s win shares actually equal every team’s wins.  I believe that the average team was only 3.3 win shares off their actual win total, so this was not a big change.

2. I adjusted Win Shares to be per 30 minutes.  (Just because 30 was a nice round number.)  This did two things.  First, it lowers the total win shares of guys who play 40 minutes a night almost every game.  Second, it helps show the true value of guys who were injured or aren’t getting enough playing time.  (“Does Chris Andersen deserve more minutes or is he just an impressive shot blocker?”  This is the type of question that is answered by adjusting for minutes.

 

Now, I understand that part of being a good NBA player is being able to play 40 minutes a night for 82 games without wearing down, but I also know that a ton of stats are skewed by how many minutes a guy plays and what team he plays on.  OJ Mayo may put up impressive numbers on a bad team, but does he really help his team win more than other guys on his team?  Who knows?

 

I used 820 minutes as a cutoff for the minute adjusted win shares.  That’s 10 minutes a night if you didn’t miss a game or more if you did.  I thought about raising it, but didn’t want to boot role players, guys who were traded to a team halfway through, and guys who were injured for a lot of the year off this list.

 

Finally, the total win shares for a team add up to way more than the team’s actual wins because it is pace adjusted to 30 minutes.  A team that played 15 guys throughout the year cannot obviously play them all 30 minutes a night… that’s 450 minutes per game.  Not even Boston/Chicago games can pull that off.  So the numbers are all inflated, but they are also all to scale with one another so it works out.  The list is 274 players long… so here are the top 20.

 

Team

Player

G

OWSMA

DWSMA

WSMA

Cleveland

LeBron James

81

10.8

5.1

15.9

New Orleans

Chris Paul

78

11.2

4.1

15.4

Los Angeles L

Pau Gasol

81

8.6

3.7

12.2

Orlando

Dwight Howard

79

5.3

6.5

11.9

Miami

Dwyane Wade

79

8.2

3.5

11.6

Los Angeles L

Kobe Bryant

82

7.7

3.6

11.2

Orlando

Jameer Nelson

42

7.2

3.9

11.1

San Antonio

Manu Ginobili

44

5.8

4.9

10.7

Portland

Brandon Roy

78

8.5

2.1

10.6

Houston

Yao Ming

77

5.4

4.8

10.3

San Antonio

Tim Duncan

75

5.0

5.1

10.1

Houston

Carl Landry

69

6.4

3.7

10.1

Los Angeles L

Andrew Bynum

50

5.8

4.2

10.1

Denver

Nene Hilario

77

6.0

4.0

9.9

Denver

Chris Andersen

71

4.7

5.2

9.9

Denver

Chauncey Billups

77

7.7

2.1

9.8

Boston

Kevin Garnett

57

4.2

5.8

9.8

Boston

Leon Powe

70

5.3

4.5

9.7

Boston

Ray Allen

79

6.3

3.1

9.5

Dallas

Dirk Nowitzki

81

6.3

2.9

9.2

 

You’ll notice that not a single player form a losing team is on here.  That’s too bad for them.  Winning games is how you get win shares.  The truly great players don’t usually play for losing teams because they can will themselves to wins.  (Lebron was towards the top of the win shares even when he had ZERO support.)  Another way to put this is that NO team in the NBA is bad enough to totally fail if they have one of the top players.  Would the Kings suck with Lebron on their team?  Yes, but they’d probably be 35 win suck instead of 17 win suck so that Lebron could still rack up his Win Shares.

 

So, nothing on this list is all that shocking.  Some random notes on the top 20:

-Lebron and Paul are a huge jump ahead of everyone else.  The gap between Paul and 3rd place is bigger than the gap between 3rd and 20th.  Impressive.

-5 of the top 6 guys on the list are considered by everyone to be the top 5 players in the NBA.  Gasol is the party crasher in these regards.  Good for him for helping to point out that Lebron/Kobe/Wade/Paul/Howard aren’t actually the only 5 superstars in the league. 

-Nelson and Ginobli are two guys who love my system because they were out half the year.

-Bynum at a 10.1 is pretty scary and makes me fear the Lakers if he can ever stay healthy.

-I’ve argued this with numerous people, so I’m happy to see these results.  Anderson and Nene were as important to Denver’s wins as Billups was.  People who talked like Billups is God because of how he single handedly turned that team around can now shut up.  He helped, but he didn’t do it alone.

-Dirk has led the league in Win Shares 3 times.  Dallas dropping off their win count this year and the fact that Dirk plays insane minutes are why he only comes in at 20 on this list.

-Carl Landry is the man!

 

Now I’m going to feed you more random information than you will know what to do with based on my results.  Keep in mind for all of these that the average WS score is 5.1.

 

OJ Mayo and Raymond Felton play too many minutes.  They are both in the top 5 in the NBA in minutes played and they have win share scores of 2.2 and 3.1 respectively.

 

Guys who played under 1500 minutes that had Adjusted Win Shares of 8 or higher are James Singleton (8.8), Manu Ginobli (10.7), Jameer Nelson (11.1), Kurt Thomas (8.1), Leon Powe (9.7), Andrew Bynum (10.1), Chris Andersen (9.9), Carl Landry (10.1), and Eddie House (8.1).  Almost there is Greg Oden (7.9).

 

Some of these guys didn’t play 1500 due to injuries such as Nelson, Ginobli, Bynum, and Oden (plus fouls.)

Some of the other should really have playing time discussions with their coaches.  (Hi I’m Carl Landry, it turns out I lead to wins!)

 

AGE!  Which age group has the best players?  I broke it up into groups. 

Young Guns        (19-22)-  Ave:  4.3 Leader: Andrew Bynum (10.1)  Loser: Javaris Crittenton (0.0)

Feet are now wet (23-25)-  Ave: 5.6  Leader: Lebron James (15.9) Loser: Royal Ivey (-1.1)

Prime?                 (26-29)-  Ave: 5.0  Leader: Pau Gasol (12.2)  Loser: Deshawn Stevenson (-1.5)

That darn 30        (30-33)-  Ave: 5.3  Leader: Kobe Bryant (11.2)  Loser: Desmond Mason (-0.6)

Old timers              (34+)-  Ave: 5.7   Leader: Shaq (8.6) Loser: Bobby Jackson (1.6)

 

It should be noted that only 16 guys made up the old timers.  If you’re still playing at 34+ you’re probably pretty good (or Bobby Jackson.)

 

 

PER is a good indicator of AWS EXCEPT for guys who are defensive minded.  For example, Ben Wallace’s 12.2 PER is not good at all, but thanks to his 5.3 ADWS he actually has a pretty good AWS.  But in general, the two are similar.  10 of the top 15 guys for PER were also top 15 in AWS.

Finally, here are some Laker stats.

Player MP PER TS% TRB% AST% OWSMA DWSMA WSMA
Pau Gasol 2999 22.2 0.617 14.7 14.8 8.6 3.7 12.2
Kobe Bryant 2960 24.4 0.561 8.2 23.8 7.7 3.6 11.2
Lamar Odom 2316 16.6 0.542 15.5 12.8 3.1 4.7 7.8
Derek Fisher 2441 12.1 0.546 4.4 14.9 3.9 2.8 6.8
Trevor Ariza 1998 15.5 0.544 10 10.4 3.3 4.6 7.9
Andrew Bynum 1446 20 0.598 15.6 7.7 5.8 4.2 10.1
Sasha Vujacic 1293 12.6 0.531 5.9 12.2 3.8 4.0 7.5
Luke Walton 1166 11.3 0.491 8.7 21.1 1.5 3.1 4.6
Vladimir Radmanovic 771 11.6 0.604 8.6 6.9 2.0 3.6 5.3
Jordan Farmar 1192 9.9 0.466 5.5 18.6 -1.5 3.4 1.9
Josh Powell 703 9.9 0.479 14.1 5.6 -1.1 3.3 2.2

 

I added 2 guys who didn't qualify, but still left off the guys with under 200 mintues played.  (They can have insane and worthless numbers.)

 

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Silver Screen and Roll

You must be a member of Silver Screen and Roll to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Screen and Roll. You should read them.

Join Silver Screen and Roll

You must be a member of Silver Screen and Roll to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Silver Screen and Roll. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker