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Lakers-Magic Game 2: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

This is going to be on the test, class, so please listen carefully: the Orlando Magic were the best defensive team in the NBA this year.

What? Don't look at me like that. Honestly, they were. Possession for possession over the course of the season, they were the most difficult team to score against.

That statement tends to generate more than its share of error messages among the audience. Many reject it in spite of its empirical validity. Present it to a roomful of even reasonably knowledgeable NBA fans, and you can almost see the cognitive dissonance take hold. I regard this phenomenon - the inability or refusal to accept the Magic as an elite defensive unit - as having two latent causes, both arising from flawed but deeply rooted analytical biases about the sport of basketball that many of us carry around.

The first is the tendency of many commentators and fans to measure defensive performance on a per-game, rather than per-possession, basis. In terms of points allowed per game, Orlando was seventh best in the league this year - not bad, certainly, but not such a gaudy ranking as to bring the Magic D to the attention of Breen and Van Gundy. What separates Orlando from the six teams ranked above them, however, is simply pace. Each of those teams was in the bottom half of the league in average possessions per game, whereas the Magic were in the top 12. Those six teams weren't actually better at keeping points off the board; they just played more slowly and thus held down the number of opportunities both they and their opponents had to score. This concept of tempo-adjustment hasn't yet entered mainstream NBA discourse, and as a result Orlando's defensive excellence is being obscured by a cloud of inferior data.

The second reason the Magic D is not so widely praised is considerably less wonky: when we watch the Magic play, they just don't look like the great defenses of yore. Aesthetically I mean. We as longtime NBA observors attach certain visual associations to top-quality defensive play. The Kevin Garnett scream and MEAN FACE. The Bruce Bowen hip-check. The Bad Boy Pistons' considerable willingness to risk criminal prosecution by inflicting violence in the lane. The Magic don't bring it like that.

No, their defensive style is of the disciplined and businesslike variety. Maybe they don't yowl and make ridiculous Gatorade commercials, but they rotate and stay on their assignments. They have the self-control not to gamble or bite on shot fakes. They foul less than anyone. They have deceptive size and length available for deployment. They have Dwight Howard to deter casual approaches to the rim. And they rebound - honey, do they ever rebound. A huge part of good D is ending your opponent's possession after one missed shot, and the Magic do that better than almost every team out there.

All of which is my long-ass way of saying that nights like Sunday - when the Laker scoring machine spit parts and made strange noises and could barely scrape together a point per possession - those nights are going to happen against these guys. They really are that good. It's not like they arrived in the NBA Finals and decided to start sucking. The Lakers can handle it, of course, but remember the second and third quarters of Game One? That was more the exception than the rule. LA Times columnists may have decided that a single game defines an entire series, but our readers here at SS&R know better. The three games in Orlando - and I personally will be very surprised if there are only two - are likely to be more struggle than not.

The full Game Two numbers are after the jump. Thankfully Orlando doesn't have a guard who can make a shot right now, otherwise these would look a hell of a lot worse.

Star-divide

There were a cool 100 possessions per team last night. Give it up for round numbers and easy math!

TO Rate FTA/FGA FT% EFG% TS% Off Reb% Def Reb%   PPP  
Orlando 20% 0.34 74 48 53 24 90 0.96
Los Angeles    12% 0.36 86 49 56 10 76 1.01

 

In Game Two the Laker and Magic offenses were each terrible at one thing. In the case of the Lakers, they rebounded only one out of every 10 missed shots - an absurdly, unacceptably low offensive rebounding rate. Their previous playoff low was 20%, a mark "achieved" in Game One of the Utah series and Game Four of the Houston series. So... yeah. Fifty percent worse than the previous low. Nice work, fellas.

The Magic, for their part, turned the ball over on one out of every five possessions - likewise a playoff worst for them. Over a third of their turnovers were committed by Howard, who has a terrible habit of bringing the ball down low when he's in the post. Terrible for Magic fans, that is. The Laker perimeter defenders (Kobe BryantTrevor Ariza and Derek Fisher) are collapsing on him and swiping the ball free when he does so.

The thing is, for the game the Magic had a total of 92 shooting possessions to the Lakers' 91, meaning Orlando's turnovers and L.A.'s failure on the offensive glass almost exactly offset each other. It also means that the outcome was decided by how efficiently each team converted those shooting possessions - in other words, by the True Shooting percentages in the table above, which are separated by a mere three points.

Orlando's shooting was obviously not a repeat of the Game One slopfest, but it was just bad enough to cost them the game. Six missed free throws by the Magic - two on four attempts, uncharacteristically, by Jameer Nelson - loomed large in a game this tight, especially with the Lakers nailing upwards of 85% of their freebies. And from the field, the Magic guards are dragging their entire offense to the ocean floor.

Check out the shooting numbers for the Magic's backcourt quintet through the first two games of the series:

    2-Pt         3-Pt         FT        SPs      Points   Points/SP True Shooting %
Alston    3-9 0-8 4-4 19 10 0.53 27
Lee 3-9 1-4 0-0 13 9 0.69 35
Nelson 4-9 0-3 2-4 14 10 0.71 36
Pietrus 3-10 3-6 1-3 17 16 0.94 46
Redick      1-4 2-7 0-0 11 8 0.73 36
Group 14-41 6-28 7-11 74 53 0.72 36

 

Reached for comment, John Starks described this shooting performance as "OH HAYLE NO!"

Moving on, please enjoy the following additional stat-rodesiacs, guaranteed to get your lady or gent in the mood....

  • Sasha Vujacic: only five minutes played. This is progress, people! He still managed to miss his only field goal attempt.
  • Weird stat of the series so far: in the second quarter of Game Two, Howard and Kobe Bryant combined for only one shooting possession.
  • Trevor Ariza (0.65 points per SP) hasn't found his stroke yet in this series, but his D on Hedo Turkoglu last night? Va-va-va-voom.
  • Kobe averaged 1.08 points per SP in Game One and 1.07 in Game Two. This is very much in line with his efficiency against Houston (1.07) but about 11% off his efficiency in the Denver series (1.21).
  • I remain amazed at what an efficient offensive weapon Pau Gasol is. Behold his points per SP across the last 10 games:

Game Points Per SP
Game Six vs. Houston   0.93
Game Seven vs. Houston   1.11
Game One vs. Denver 1.18
Game Two vs. Denver 1.31
Game Three vs. Denver 1.25
Game Four vs. Denver 1.50
Gave Five vs. Denver 1.40
Game Six vs. Denver 1.54
Game One vs. Orlando 1.33
Game Two vs. Orlando 1.26

Kind of a clunker in the sixth game of the Houston series, but then it's badassery all the way down. The talk before each Laker game is whether the opponent will choose to double Kobe, which is understandable enough. At what point, though, do you start gameplanning around Pau and hope that Kobe just has an off-night shooting the ball? Pau is good enough that this isn't a ridiculous question.

The combined team stats through Game Two are below. Bon appetit!

Poss/48 Mins  TO Rate   FTA/FGA      FT%       EFG%      TS%    Off Reb% Def Reb%    PPP   
Orlando 88 15 0.36 73 42 47 24 76 0.92
Los Angeles    88 11 0.28 85 49 54 24 76 1.08

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Comments

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At what point, though, do you start gameplanning around Pau and hope that Kobe just has an off-night shooting the ball?

Should be now.

This is the ultimate compliment to Kobe, because you are saying you can’t control him by using special strategies. Just play honest defense, and if Kobe beats you, Kobe beats you. The special strategies may be more effective in shutting the other players down, and you may be wasting your resources trying to slow Kobe down.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 1:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Bill Simmons pisses me off.

He is so biased against the Lakers, yet I enjoy reading his stuff anyways because he’s a great writer.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

by Justin N. on Jun 8, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions  

I know!

No mention at all of Dwight Howard sticking his hand through the rim to block Gasol’s shot, or any of the questionable calls on Bynum. Of course every call went to the Lakers according to Billy.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

He did the 4th quarter only for the most part...

…but it was still really one sided. Called attention to every no call the refs gave Trevor for his aggressive defense on Turk, but at the same time paid no mind to the equally aggressive D Turk played on Kobe down the stretch. Also, no attention brought to the botched out of bounds call when Turk stripped Kobe.

ESPN should really tell its writers to quit writing about the NBA refs. It only cheapens the sport, which can’t be good for their traffic and ratings.

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

by Justin N. on Jun 8, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's like a cheerleader for the Anti-Lakers fans

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Out of bounds play?

The ball didn’t go out of bounds on the second-to-last play of regulation, did it? Just looked like Turkoglu got a hold of it and called time out. His hand is outstretched to call a timeout.

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

It may have been in overtime

The one where Turkoglu slapped the ball out of Kobe’s hands and the ball went out of bounds baseline, and the referee said the ball hit Kobe’s thigh last.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh yes, that play

That one may or may not have been off Kobe, couldn’t tell from the replay. But the referee definitely didn’t see it right—he called it off of Kobe’s thigh, and it clearly didn’t touch the thigh.

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Game of two halves

I was out at an event in the first half, came home and watched the second half, which I judged to be called, on balance, in favor of the Lakers. Then I went back and watched the first half, which looked to be judged in favor of the Magic.

Folks, Simmons is who we thought he was. Nothing to see here, move along.

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's grasping at straws.

He wants so badly for the Lakers to get beat that he’s doing what many casual fans do when they don’t get the result they desire: bitch about the refs.

by illcowboy on Jun 8, 2009 11:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Goaltending by Pau?

Last time I checked, putting your hand in the net or on the rim while a shot is being taken is goaltending. Courtney Lee missed the layup straight-up, but Pau’s hand clearly gets tangled in the net and hooks on the rim for a second (rattling the rim ever so slightly) on that last second lob. That, my friends, is goaltending. Too bad NBA refs swallow their whistles during the last seconds of games. I was shocked that they even did when Kobe got blocked by Hedo and tried to flop to get a call.

by SteelonIce on Jun 8, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions  

That, my friends, is not goaltending--not automatically, anyway

You didn’t check very carefully, I don’t think. :)

Howard’s “block” of Pau is a black-letter goaltend, per Rule 11.I.g (contact with the ball made by a hand through the basket ring). Pau never touched the ball on the last play of regulation, so the relevant rule is Rule 11.I.h, which requires vibration of the backboard/ring/net so as to cause an “unnatural bounce” of the ball. It’s a judgment call, but in my opinion, the replay does not show enough movement to qualify as causing an unnatural bounce.

The only real justification for Kobe’s gripe on the second-to-last play of regulation is a tap on the elbow by Rashard Lewis. Not much contact there, and I think it’s a good non-call.

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Mr Tung is correct for $500

Touching the rim does not automatically result in goaltending.

NBA Rulebook 2008-09. Today was the last time I checked.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

By the way

Good stuff at Wages of Wins.

I don’t buy the individual statistical analysis there, though. The team analysis is much more reliable.

I always think of the team as a big apple or cheese pie, and that trying to split out individual contributions is like trying to pull apart an gooey pie. It’s a big mess.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Strangely enough

I have a post on my blog about individual stats, especially as it applies to superstars. This one is about PER, but it could probably be applied to WP48, or indeed any aggregate stat.

http://thenullhypodermic.blogspot.com/2009/06/superstars-and-per.html

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good stuff

I linked to it in my Daily Tidbits post.

Agreed on all points, but I think the source problem with basketball “statistics” today is the statistics themselves. They don’t describe the individual contributions accurately and are much too “chunky”. First there is the problem of allocation. For example a whole rebound or point must be given to one player. However, we know that in some cases a point or rebound may be a result of the interaction of two, sometimes even five, players, and that’s not even considering the type of defense being played!

The stats themselves are not descriptive enough. A point? What kind of point? A layup, a contested jumper, open jumper, off the dribble?

Basketball is made up of such complex interactions, you can see why it’s easier to make a model for teams than it is for the contributions of individual players.

I could go more in-depth, but I don’t want to. Smiley face. I will hold to my assertion that the day someone develops a statistic model to evaluate individual soccer players is the day I will believe it can be done for basketball.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's certainly part of the problem...

…but the point of my post, which is not really about Hollinger’s PER specifically, is that even if you did have exactly the base stats you wanted, reducing a player’s stats to a single aggregate value invariably introduces the biases of the aggregate stat designer. There’s really no way around that.

That being said, people would love to have a better set of primitive statistics. Ideally, one would have an annotated game log, with everything XML-ized (or some such) so that you could apply computer processing to any question you had. Obviously, that would be a lot of work, but it’s possible Mechanical Turk could play a role.

by BrianTung on Jun 8, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right, I went sideways there, even though I agreed with your point

And I loved that you point out how because it deals with numbers, people are wont to say it’s “objective” or that the statistics are incontrovertible “facts”.

The worst is when you are accused of being “scared” of the numbers, or not understanding them, so that’s why you don’t believe their interpretations. It’s precisely because I do understand the numbers that I see their limitations and subjectivity.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

That did not affect his shot, so it's not a goaltend

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

clean block!

cmon stop your whining, perfect rejection by dwight, lol.

by kumquatsrus on Jun 8, 2009 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Crocodile Dundee

“You call that a goal tend? That’s not a goal tend. This is a goal tend”

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 8, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now THAT is good defense

by intuitive on Jun 8, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

There were bad calls on both sides.. I mean, i dont think pau goaltended – I think Lee missed a pretty hard shot.. Everyone saying that he choked is bogus – it was a inbound lob pass from 30 feet that he had to catch midair and shoot over a 7 footer. There is no conspiracy.. The Magic lost a game they could have won. They lost the game due to poor freethrow shooting and horrifying guard shooting, bad passing and turnovers. Rafer alson cannot hit the broad side of a barn, and Jameer has played 2 games in 4 months. Unfortunately for the magic – they needed good guard play in this series for a chance to win. After 4 months off, Jameer is a different player than the all-star he was earlier in the season.. Personally, I dont think he should be out there – as it has disrupted team chemistry – obviously. Johnson is a capable backup guard, and really gave the magic a spark off the bench… Alton was playing pretty well all through the playoffs as well. Im thinking both guards that played well are feeling a little discombobulated – and for Gundy to experiment during the playoffs on one of the most critical positions of this series is STUPID. The combo of johnson and alson outplayed the Cavs guards who are pretty good.

Guard play is/was essential for the magic to win this series – and right now, the Magic have no guards that are playing up to even D-league standards. . If and when they come alive, which is somewhat doubtful, this may turn into a series. With as poorly as the guards played in game 2, it SHOULD have been a laker blowout again… Orlando’s D and Lewis’ O kept them in the game.

by i2ambler on Jun 9, 2009 8:14 AM PDT reply actions  

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