Lakers-Magic Game 4: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown
In Game Four, Derek Fisher had a Robert Horry kind of night. This is a more complicated notion than you might think and, as hoops compliments go, is both enormous and enormously qualified. It invokes a sense of role player yin-and-yang that manifests equally in long stretches of ineffectual play, on the one hand, and historic, era-defining big shots, on the other. It describes a performance that screams out for big-picture context and perspective.
History remembers Horry primarily for the long threes he hit to change the course of many a playoff series. Those of us with doctorates in Advanced Horrysian Studies, however, know that this is but part of his tale, as in spite of his postseason heroics, he was among the more infuriating players to have on one's team. The fourth-quarter daggers were great, but they were often preceded by thirtysome minutes of GM-worthy underproduction. For the first 85 possessions of a game, Horry would wander the court without presence or direction, notching maybe three points and two boards and leading an angry Laker nation to ask the musical question, Why the hell is this guy playing?
But then, the answer, in the form of the shots that we all remember. The daggers that, yes, changed NBA history and rearranged how we look back on seasons and entire careers. I dig seeing the clips of Horry's classic bombs, but I also remember thinking, That win would have been a lot easier if he hadn't waited until the last second to do something useful.
Fisher's Game Four performance shares the same contours. Not the classic Horry fecklessness, of course; Fish is one of the all-time, try-hard badasses and one of the rare athletes who actually earns the overused adjective gritty. But let's be honest with each other: how many of us groaned irritably at his first five three-point misses and, through the TV, demanded his benchitude? And the thing is, we weren't necessarily wrong to do so, strange as it sounds. Up until there were four seconds left in regulation, Fish wasn't that great, and his not-that-greatness was a reason, one among many, the Lakers needed a historic comeback.
This isn't meant to disparage Fish's performance in Game Four; honestly, it's not. (Making three-pointers, after all, is actually difficult, especially against the Orlando Magic in their gym.) I mean only to observe that we as sports fans tend to focus overmuch on sequence. Whatever happened last seems most important, even though baskets made in the fourth quarter don't count any more than those made in the second. There were hundreds of tiny moments and interactions that led to Fish's bombs, so as we lavish praise for the shots that will likely lead to a Laker championship, let's not forget love for those who kept the Lakers in it until Fish could find the range.
For Pau Gasol, for instance, whose defense turned Rashard Lewis into a 6'9" version of J.J. Redick. For Luke Walton, unassumingly finding his role and his game after a season in the wilderness. For Trevor Ariza, who ripped third-quarter holes in the Orlando D and did some unsung work on the glass. For Otis Smith, who somehow saw fit to trade Ariza to the Lakers for - ahem - Maurice Evans and Brian Cook. And for Nick Anderson, who still carries with him the gypsy curse that makes the Orlando Magic miss free throws in the NBA Finals.
The Game Four numbers await you after the jump. Tick tock, Clarice....
Thursday night, including the overtime period, was a 95-possession affair, which prorates to 86 possessions per 48 minutes of play. Anyone up for a 15-second shot clock?
| TO Rate | FTA/FGA | FT% | EFG% | TS% | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | PPP | |
| Los Angeles | 8% | 0.22 | 75 | 46 | 50 | 23 | 74 | 1.04 |
| Orlando | 20% | 0.50 | 60 | 47 | 50 | 26 | 77 | 0.96 |
Want to know a stat I absolutely hate? Points off turnovers. It's an utterly useless metric that to my annoyance continues to appear in the conventional boxscore. I suspect that it's a carry-over from football, in which a turnover can set up good field position and an easy score. In today's NBA, however, teams really don't fast-break off turnovers that much - see, e.g., the pace numbers for this entire series - and as a result, there's hardly any relation between the occurrence a turnover and what subsequently happens at the other end. The value of the turnover is almost entirely defensive, in that you end your opponents' possession without their having attempted a shot.
Anyhow, the Magic turned the ball over on a fifth of their Game Four possessions, and at this point I feel comfortable in saying: they are the worst passing team I've ever seen advance deeply into the NBA playoffs. They're just a hot nasty mess. Dwight Howard might be, like, the third-best passer on the team. Stan Van Gundy should try him at the point.
The wide-angle view of this series is looking pretty bleak for Orlando. Over four games, these two teams have played out 367 possessions, divided almost equally between Staples and Amway, and the Lakers are outscoring the Magic by 0.09 points per. (See composite series-to-date numbers below.) All available evidence tells us that Orlando just isn't good enough to beat the Lakers three straight times. If all three remaining games were in Orlando, L.A. would still be favored to take at least one of them. With two of the three to be played in the 213, there's really no reason, outside of the anything-can-happen unknowability of the future, to think that this series isn't effectively over.
Until it's official, though, I'll keep dropping the stat bombs like you're begging me to do it.
- The Magic backcourt was back to its usual capering on Thursday: aside from Frenchman Mickael (why isn't it Michel?) Pietrus, who scored 15 on 11 shooting possessions, Orlando guards were ghastly. Our good friends Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Jameer Nelson and Redick scored 23 points on 42% True Shooting. Reached for comment, Pietrus announced plans to commence a general strike to secure improved working conditions, meaning teammates who can shoot.
- How bad is Anthony Johnson that he can't get a minute of playing time in this group? At least he got mentioned in my column, which I'm told is just as exciting as appearing in the NBA Finals.
- Howard and Hedo Turkoglu together missed 13 free throws, thereby voiding the warranty on the Amway Arena rims. Nobody dunk too hard, as repairs are all out-of-pocket from now on.
- Sashawatch 2009! This needs its own theme music. Four minutes played, oh-for-2 shooting. He hasn't scored since May.
- Pau has turned the ball over only four times in 170 minutes played this series. Dwight Howard turned the ball over four times while you were reading this sentence. BURN.
(As promised, composite series numbers are below.)
Savor Game Five, my peoples! It could be the last time we get to watch this maddening, magnificent edition of the Lakers.
| Poss/48 Mins | TO Rate | FTA/FGA | FT% | EFG% | TS% | Off Reb% | Def Reb% | PPP | |
| Orlando | 87 | 16% | 0.42 | 70 | 48 | 53 | 24 | 73 | 1.01 |
| Los Angeles | 87 | 11% | 0.27 | 76 | 50 | 54 | 27 | 76 | 1.10 |
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Comments
Tim Duncan said it best ...
I’ll tell you the deal with Rob[ert Horry], Rob just hangs out the entire game. He does it all season long, he doesn’t do anything. He doesn’t feel like playing. He shows up sometimes, and then you put him in the fourth quarter in a big game, whether it be regular season or the playoffs, and he’s like, “Okay, it’s time to play now. I’ve been hanging out the entire season, it’s time to play now.” And he just turns it on.
I thought Sasha played his best game of the series in game four.
No stupid fouls, no turnovers.
He drew the defense on a drive and got Pau a semi-open elbow jumper.
The two shots he missed were both rhythm threes that were just a bit long, but otherwise on the mark. He passed up a three with a guy running at him to get it to Farmar, who missed, but it was still the smart play.
His man beat him on one Magic possession, that I can recall, when Redick nailed a jumper, but other than that, he did OK defensively.
Compared to the way he’s played previously in the playoffs—rushing his threes, taking pull up two point jumpers off the dribble in traffic, committing stupid fouls, throwing the ball away—he definitely played better in game four.
sasha’s had a horrible year. one might be inclined to say, “unload the guy.” however, he did have a good season the previous year. perhaps giving him a shot at redemption would only be fair, although i would not be the least disappointed if the lakers got rid of him this off-season.
I don't know if the Lakers can unload him.
He’ll be in the second year of a three year deal at ~5mil per. Given the way he’s played, the amount he’s owed and the state of the economy, I don’t see many teams being willing to take his contract until after next season.
The Lakers might be able to offload him during the 2010-11 season, when his expiring contract could appeal to teams looking to make room for a free agent. Thing is, that kind of misses the 2010 free agent bonanza, so it’s unclear how many teams will be looking to create cap space.
Bottom line, the Lakers are likely stuck with him.
I think he’ll improve though. A lot of the problems he’s had on the court this year are mental, and that’s something that experience, maturity and good coaching can help a player overcome. He needs to be more patient, shoot only good shots (make or miss, as long as they’re good shots, it will all even out), read the defense better and slightly curtail his enthusiasm on the defensive end, so he stops picking up the dumb fouls. He needs to stop this nonsense of taking shots while moving, be it off the dribble or curling off a screen. He should only shoot when his feet are set as he receives the ball.
FTA/FGA
Dex, besides the obvious arithmetic, what does FTA/FGA tell us about the game or team?
by Jello Is Jiggling on Jun 13, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions
Good Question
It’s the preferred way of capturing the rate at which a team is drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line. If you simply compare aggregate team free-throw attempts, or even try something more sophisticated like FTAs per possession, the data gets noisy because it doesn’t account for turnovers and offensive rebounds.
For instance, a team might not be getting to the line much simply because it’s turning the ball over a lot. In other words, its possessions are ending before it even gets a look at the basket.
Alternatively, a team could be getting a ton of looks, and therefore getting to the line a number of times, because it’s collecting a lot of offensive boards.
By looking at FTA/FGA, we can remove these contaminations from the data to see how efficiently a team is using its “looks at the basket” to get to the line.
by DexterFishmore on Jun 13, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Horry does nothing?
What kind of Horry expert are you? Yes for the spurs, he was old and just riding out the season, but with the Lakers you think it did nothing? I have one word for you, intangibles. Horry was a smart player, he played great position defense, poked balls free on a regular basis, was a good passer, (except from out of bounds), and he hit the 3-ball when it mattered. Your idea of what a basketball player is supposed to do is all wrong if you think Horry did nothing until he hit a big shot. They wouldn’t even be in a position to win with his big shot if he hadn’t done the little things to help the Lakers get to where they were in the game.
Nuf said.
the truth is horry was not that good of a player. he had one or two pretty good seasons in houston, but after that it was all downhill. he’s lucky to have been on so many championship teams. i don’t like lazy players. the guy had no heart (recall, yawning in a game).
Who had better numbers?
Who had better numbers Rick Fox, Brian Shaw, Ron Harper, AC Green, or Robert Horry? Are you saying he was overpaid? Overrated? He did his job, he was a role player. The Truth is that the Lakers won 3 championships in a row with Robert Horry.
robert horry
I do tend to agree that Robert Horry may be just a little overrated. Some of those shots he made were really open looks that any good shooter should make. He did unquestionably have certain intangibles that made him a great player. That being said though nobody just ends up having that many championships without being a great player. His basketball IQ was extremely high and theres a reason why he was always in the right place at the right time.
by collegetuner on Jun 14, 2009 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions

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