Game 3 Recap — The View from Houston...
Have you ever been to a big beer party? The first keg gets iced down all afternoon, the CO2 gets set just right for the tap, and everything comes out perfect and delicious and good. Nothing like that first beer... Yummmm!
But then later in the evening, after things get a bit rowdy and silly, that first keg is tapped out and you get stuck hooking up the backup pony keg — which is warm and bland and the carbonation is on the fritz to boot. By this point of the evening, many people are getting sick of drinking bad yellow beer anyway — but you and a few of your debauched friends continue to power down the inferior product out of duty and force of habit and desire to absorb more alcohol.
Same party, same evening, same beverage — but instead of hitting the spot, that 8th beer is warm, flat swill that tastes like dog urine and leaves your mouth feeling like you have been sucking on damp socks in the morning...
Game 3 against the Lakers marked the point of the party when the frosty, fresh first keg ran out and the flat pony keg swill began to be served. Rocket foam was blown at halftime, with the game virtually tied. A 24-14 drubbing coming out of the break and the Rockets were left barfing in the back seat, pointlessly chucking down glass after glass of lukewarm rat piddle in a vain attempt to recapture that happy Game 1 buzz.
The party's over, Rocket fans. Sorry about that.
Home court advantage has been lost.
The Rockets have been exposed on the offensive end, with wack job Shooting Guards Artest and Wafer unable to match the output of even a streaky and mortal Kobe Bryant. Yao Ming once again vanished in the second half, while PG Aaron Brooks proved singularly ineffective attempting to score the ball against Jordan Farmar (starting his first game of the season in the aftermath of the suspension of hard-checking Defenseman Derek Fisher). With the Lakers stopping Yao with limited doubleteams, PF Luis Scola was carefully covered, taking away the last of the Rockets' significant offensive tools.
In the NBA, defense is not enough. And the Houston offense is not enough.
Let's pay a visit to our friends in Texas to see if they agree with this grim diagnosis, shall we?
(Click through for more stuff...)
Click the headlines to read full stories...
(1)
Lost Their Headway: Artest ejected for second straight game, might be suspended
by Jonathan Feigen, Houston Chronicle
The Los Angeles Lakers' Kobe Bryant stood at midcourt and froze. With every camera lens and every eye on him, he struck a pose and stood there, soaking in the moment and embracing every bit of derision aimed at him.
Bryant had made just two of his previous 12 shots when he nailed a long 3-pointer to end the third quarter, inspiring his mid-court performance art and offering a look at just the sort of play the Rockets could not match.
Bryant and the Lakers could not leave the Rockets behind as they had in Game 2, but they could hit the Rockets with bursts of scoring the Rockets could not match, sending them to a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference semifinals with a 108-94 win Friday night at Toyota Center.
"We threw up a clunker," Rockets forward Shane Battier said. "We just couldn't find ways to score in the third period. They were in control most of the game."
More troubling perhaps than even falling behind in the series, or wasting a night in which the Lakers made just 43.9 percent of their shots with Bryant hitting just 11 of 28, Yao Ming turned his left foot in the second quarter and finished the game limping. * * *
(2)
front page from ClutchFans.com
The Rockets defense finally, for the first time this year, locked down the Lakers inside the arc.
Outside the arc? That was another story. Los Angeles hit 11-20 from downtown and used a big third quarter to take homecourt advantage back with a 108-94 win in the Toyota Center. Turnovers (17 for Houston to 6 for L.A.) killed the Rockets again.
The second quarter was the most symbolic as the Lakers went cold but the Rockets turned it over consistently and trailed by 2 at half when they should have been up by 5-10.
To make matters worse? Yao Ming was visibly limping in the fourth quarter from an ankle injury he suffered in the second. He's going to be doing running tests in the morning to see if he can go in Game 4.
(3)
Playoff Recap: Rockets fail to find their stroke, turn Game 3 over to Lakers 108-94
by Tom Martin, The Dream Shake
* * *
There were about three extremely difficult shots that were made over the course of the contest, and they were all by Kobe Bryant. Otherwise, it was a game of open shots made and open shots missed, opportunities taken and opportunities missed, and, lastly, ugly offense and even uglier offense. Though they did many things well, the Lakers did not win this game. We lost it in every way possible.Kobe scored 33 points on 28 shots — that's fine. Pau Gasol finishes 4/11 for 13 points — even better. As for the other Lakers, there were plenty of solid performances, but nothing remotely memorable. The Lakers were by no means on top of their game, which says a lot about this loss.
In the second and third quarters, how many times did you see a wide-open Rocket miss a shot? How many dunk or layup attempts did we either miss or have blocked? Los Angeles can probably count their examples on one hand. When Houston closed out on shots and played good defense, the Lakers missed. But when we failed to rotate and left players by themselves, like Ariza and Farmar and Odom, the Lakers capitalized. The Rockets can not say the same about their performance.
To me, our fate was decided in the second quarter, when Los Angeles continued to miss shots, and yet we continued to miss our attempts as well. However, had jump shooting been the only deciding factor, we may have had a chance. But our bad habits showed up yet again as we turned the ball over seventeen times. L.A. took advantage and made their offense much easier by running the break. Again, we can't say the same thing about ourselves, as we only forced six turnovers. Unfortunately, the only area of the game in which Houston has been consistent this series is in turnovers. We've had at least 16 each game. And it has to stop. * * *
(4)
by MisterTerrific, posted to The Dream Shake
* * *
Pace is at 91 possessions, probably inflated due to some of the late game fouling. Anyway, this was the kind of game the Rockets thrive in. For reference, our season average was 90 possessions while the Lakers average 94 possessions.Sadly, however, this wasn't the Rockets' game. If you saw this, you didn't need statistical analysis to tell you that our shooting was horrible, nearing Rafer Alston levels. The turnovers weren't helping either, as nearly 1/4th of the possessions ended up being coughed up and returned to the Lakers. In a game as slow as this, these possessions could mean being down 14 or being down 2 and having a chance to possibly take the game back. * * *
Bullet points:
* Hot start on offense in the first was fool's gold.
* Turnovers hurt.
* Ron Artest's shooting hurt.
* Same with Von.
* What happened to Luis?
* Same with Aaron.
* Defend the 3 better.
* Defense on Kobe was still good. * * *
(5)
No Layups: Game 3 Recap
by Raheel Ramzanali and David Nuno, 1560-AM, Houston
Raheel Ramzanali and David Nuno of Houston's 1560 The Game break down Game 3 between the Rockets and Lakers. Coach Adelman, Yao, Ron Artest and Phil Jackson make cameos to help the guys break it down.
** ADDENDA **
(6)
An Opportunity Wasted: Rockets trail, 2-1; worry about Yao, Artest
Jonathan Feigen, Houston Chronicle/Chron.com
The Rockets did not just lose a game.
They lost an opportunity.
We'll see by the end of the day on Saturday how much else they lost.
For now, this was a chance that got away. They got the sort of game they wanted. Through three quarters, it was low scoring, and only with a late run and a 34-point fourth quarter did the Lakers get to their customary 108 points.
The Rockets held the Lakers to 43.9 percent shooting and Kobe Bryant to 11-of-28 shooting.
Yao Ming did an outstanding job defensively on Pau Gasol and put together a solid 19 points with 14 rebounds. Luis Scola and Carl Landry were solid in the same game, something that does not happen often. They even had Von Wafer sprinting his way back to the bench, high-fiving teammates when he was taken out of the game, as exuberant when coming out of the game as a gymnast waiting for her scores.
This was the sort of game they wanted, the sort they can win, the sort they will have to win to have a chance in the series.
They lost anyway, because there is no way to beat the Lakers with the offense they had on Friday. * * *
(7)
Game 3 Recap: Some quick points
by Brody, Rockets Buzz
The Lakers maintained control throughout, but not until the final minutes did I ever give up on the Rockets. Here's why:
The Rockets shooting was awful, so bad that I figured there was no way it could get any worse. In the 3rd quarter, when it looked like the rims would need replacing, the Rockets were 1-13 on jumpshots — but the Lakers still remained within reach.
Ron Artest will receive most of the blame for their poor performance, as he should — going 10-23 from the field including 1-12 on jumpshots in the first 47 minutes will send some heat your way — but Von Wafer's play was equally despicable.
Not only was Wafer 2-10 shooting and a liability on defense, but he also completely disrupted the offense. The Rockets badly needed penetration, but to open passing lanes for Yao and the other forwards. Wafer's play was so selfish that even Jeff Van Gundy — who is notoriously oblivious to everything — noticed and commented. * * *
There's still a chance the Rockets can win this series. The Rockets defense is based on forcing teams into jumpshots and tonight the Lakers made the tough ones just often enough to stymie each of the Rockets runs. Case in point was Kobe's three at the end of the 3rd quarter.
The Rockets don't steal the ball, they rarely get blocks, instead they rely on patience and effort. Kobe missed his shots, but the rest of the Lakers picked up where he left off. Shane Battier didn't change the way he guarded Kobe, in fact the Rockets didn't change anything at all.
That's why I'm optimistic they'll win Game 4. * * *
(8)
by Solid, posted to ClutchFans.com
The Rockets relative lack of talent compared to the Lakers was on display tonight. Silly, stupid unforced turnovers and horrific guard play was their undoing.
Artest shot 30% and though Yao may be struggling with an injury he was no ball of fire tonight. He looked really slow the entire game. The Rockets just don't have all the pieces to complete at this level. But the fantasy of the pitbull Rockets was good while it lasted. More like poodles tonight.
The Rockets must play way, way over their heads to win against the really good teams. I am proud they did in the Portland series and in game one of this one. However, according to statistical probability and league history, this series is over.
(9)
by Respect Roc, posted to ClutchFans.com
I think if we expect to be given credit for how well we played, we should also give credit to our opponents when they play well. The Lakers came out executing almost everything they planned well, in particular putting pressure on our perimeter defenders by hitting their 3s. They had 11 3s tonight compared to a total of 8 for the 1st 2 games.
They also defended us well, forcing some turnovers and, at the same time, limiting their own turnovers by playing in a more controlled manner. They only had 6 turnovers tonight compared to 13 and 11 in the first 2 games.
Kobe didn't shoot as well as he did the previous 2 games, hitting 11 of 28 (39.3%) from the field, although he did shoot some heart-wrenching 3s (4 of 6 tonight compared to 3 of 10 in the first 2 games), including a crazy one at the 3rd quarter buzzer. For the record, he shot 14/31 (45.2%) and 16/27 (59.3%) from the field in the first 2 games.
The Rockets did at least one thing they planned to do well, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds tonight which was more than the total of the first 2 games (6 plus 12). In fact, for the first time in 3 games, we outrebounded them - and by quite an impressive margin (56 to 43).
We dropped our efficiency and intensity offensively, shooting only 41.7% from the field (we were 47.8% and 45.9% in the first 2 games). As everyone witnessed, we had too many turnovers particularly unforced ones when we tried to rush things instead of being patient - although with 17 tonight, that was only 1 more than the 1st game and 2 less than the 2nd.
Yao missed some shots he normally would have gotten, probably making Artest feel that he had to try to pick up the slack since the rest were also having a poor offensive night, particularly Wafer and Brooks. That led to Ron taking 23 shots from the field but getting the same total (25) as the previous game when he took only 14 shots. The Lakers didn't really defend Yao any differently from the 2nd game, so his low offensive efficiency would have to be put down as just a poor shooting night, exacerbated perhaps by the injury to his left foot/leg.
Overall, we played rather poorly by our recent standards whilst the Lakers did manage to succeed in their adjustments, particularly their perimeter shooting and reduced unforced errors. Still, we were only behind 84-90 at one stage in the 4th quarter which, at least, showed the resilience we've all along demonstrated. The sad thing was that with the Lakers shooting only 43.9% from the field, this game was really one which got away. Without taking anything away from our opponents, it's probably fair to say that in the final analysis, we lost this one more than them actually winning it.
The Bottom Line:
1. WHAT THE HELL WAS THAT?!?!?!?
2. Lakers were not hitting on all cylinders but still won handily. This is not a good sign.
3. Turnovers were the difference for the Rockets. Defensive teams don't have a huge margin of error in that department. The Rockets must take care of the ball much better if they are going to win this series.
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Some claim that Houston just shot poorly
And that is true.
But when I look down the line, I don’t see where Houston can consistently get their offense from. Seems like their best lineup is with Lowry and Brooks, because they can create and disrupt the Lakers defense off the dribble. Other than those two, who creates? Artest has some handy moves, but he just looks erratic. Battier does not have the handles. Yao needs the ball fed to him. Landry and Hayes are hustle guys, but they too don’t have the ball handling skills necessary to break down a defense. Scola is a post player.
They play well when they play as a team and move the ball around, but when no one is making shots, they don’t have that steadying force that can make things happen.
Houston wins with fanatical energy, rucking for offensive rebounds and scoring putbacks, and making use of Yao -- either to score in close (single teams) or to kick out for open 3s (double teams).
Somewhere along the line (Game 6 of the Blazer series, actually), the offense became “Ronny Ghetto is a Superstar.”
That worked fine in the first game of the Laker series.
Game 2: not so much.
Game 3: Houston is disjointed, completely out of their offense.
They will need to fix this in game 4, or this is gonna be a 4-1 Laker wipe-out.
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
I see you are slowly coming over to the dark side ...
After Game 1, it was the Lakers who were in trouble.
After Game 3, it is now Houston who is in trouble.
It’s a bit premature, but that “what me, worry?” attitude of the Lakers after Game 1 is not looking so crazy after all. But hindsight will give us perfect vision when the series is done.
It's all about probabilities...
Going down 0-1 at home becomes a 40-60 chance of winning or something.
At 1-1, it was a coin flip.
At 2-1, it is more like 60-40 Lakers favor — and big Mo is on their side…
Rockets have to win 3 out of 4, with 2 of those 4 on the road.
They are in deep trouble…
(BTW: It is a pretty common view in Blazerland that I have already gone over to the Dark Side, ha ha!)
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
yeah
there was a lot of overreacting around here after the Game 1 loss.
I still don’t buy into the “40-60” or “60-40” probabilities. This isn’t a poker game. This isn’t ace-king against two queens. (or more accurately, ace-jack vs. king-queen.) It’s a seven-game basketball series, and over a seven-game basketball series, the better team generally prevails. I believe that team is the Los Angeles Lakers. Everything else is just pseudo statistics.
My name isn't really Iggy.
with all respect to mr. timbo of course
My name isn't really Iggy.
There are all sorts of ways to look at the sports world. I see things in terms of probabilities.
There are always random events that throw off the most careful “planning.” In the NFL, this takes the form of fumbles and turnovers. In the NBA, it can be as simple as whether a few open 3s drop or fall…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
...fumbles and INTERCEPTIONS...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
...drop or CLANK OUT...
God, I want editability of the comments section…
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal
I have always looked at sports, poker, pretty much anything else this way.
It’s made up of some combination of skill, effort/focus, and luck. B-Ball might be 40% skill, 40% focus/effort, and 20% luck. Poker is probably more like 50% skill, 15% effort/focus, and 35% luck. Other sports, games, life, stock market, etc. seem to follow the same pattern. I think the larger the sample (longer the series) the more that skill, focus, and effort overcome luck. Think of a Poker game. If you are a good player and play for 20 minutes, you may win or lose, but it will be based mostly on luck. If you play for 20 hours, you may win or lose, but it will be based mostly on skill/effort/focus.
The interesting thing is that for the most part (especially in b-ball) skill is a constant, and luck is an uncontrollable variable, which means that effort/focus is the only area that can be controlled from game to game. Yet so many people (mostly fans) focus on the skill and luck (refereeing, good shots made vs. missed, etc).
Any that is how I look at it.
"Don't I know you from somewhere"?. "Nah, that ain't me, I'm from Buffalo" - Axel Foley
It not pseudo statistics, it's just different assumptions
The stats Timbo is referencing only what has happened in the past.
1) Teams that have lost Game 1 have gone on to lose the series 80 percent of the time
is very different than saying
2) The chances of a team losing a series after losing Game 1 are 80 percent.
The leap from statement 1 to statement 2 is making the assumption that the current situation is not much different than all the situations in the past. Which isn’t actually a bad assumption, but it’s not exactly right, either.
For example you could also base your assumptions on the belief that the Lakers are like the Blazers, in which case before the series started the chances of the Lakers losing the series after losing Game 1 would be pretty high, as it seemed to follow the pattern of the Houston series. But that would be a bad assumption.
You can make all types of assumptions and create odds based on whatever you want.
However when people usually reference the “historical odds” they’re using the assumption that the past is pretty much like the present.
And the “odds” at Vegas are based on the experience and assumptions of the bookmakers, who also use various historical statistical models to produce their expectations.
But no one really knows the underlying parameters, or there would be no “odds” as it would be a certainty.
"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson
ghetto ronny + von waffles = epic fail
artest can be great if he doesn’t try to do things outside of his ability at times like in game 3. same goes with von. mark jackson said it best; “when von get the ball you won’t know what hes going to do, but you sure as hell know what he won’t do; pass.”
The Lakers can play game 4...
…with a lot less pressure now (hopefully that will be an asset and not an excuse to take it easy). And ALL the pressure will be on the rockets. If the Lakers have say an 8-point lead with about 3 mins play I think panic may start to settle on the Rockets bench. This thing should be over if LA wins tomorrow.
Does anyone know how Yao is doing? I really like Yao and hope he can continue in the series.
0 = The number of Super Bowls the Eagles have won.
All I've seen is that he will be undergoing a precautionary CAT scan today (Saturday) and they expect he will play Sunday...
"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal






















