Credits 5/28/09

As these conference finals games come down to the wire virtually every night, the same question is on the mind of every player, coach and fan: Who will come up big in crunch time?

    Many insist that Kobe Bryant is the best closer in the game, and LeBron James has provided the most memorable late-game moment of the playoffs thus far with his buzzer-beater in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. But most of the mainstream discussion about who comes up big in the clutch and who doesn’t is based on opinion and what we remember from watching a few games, not on any sort of statistics. Until now.

    After studying the data, I’ve come up with a formula that takes into account an NBA player’s statistics and combines them into a single number that summarizes his overall crunch-time performance. The numbers take into account both regular-season and postseason performance in 2008-09, but in order to be rated, a player had to have played a minimum of 50 crunch-time minutes in the regular season (a requirement that 201 players met this season).

    Like 82games.com, which provided the data, I defined "crunch time" as when the score was within five points with five or less minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime.

    To derive the overall rating, I used a statistical method that weights a player’s basic statistics (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, field-goal percentage, etc.) according to how they correlate with a team’s scoring margin while he is on the court. Basically, the rating counts a player’s "good" statistics (points, rebounds, etc.) positively and a player’s "bad" statistics (turnovers, missed shots, etc.) negatively, then adjusts for minutes played to get a single plus/minus rating (which I set to a scale of per 40 minutes). In advanced NBA statistics circles, this is known as a statistical plus-minus formula.

    Now on to the part that really matters: the results.

    2008-09 Crunch-Time Rating Leaders (through May 27)
    Player Rating Crunch-time stats (per 40 minutes)
    1. LeBron James, CLE +20.0 47.0 pts, 11.1 reb, 10.6 ast, 54.0 FG pct
    2. Chris Paul, NO +11.4 37.3 pts, 8.7 ast, 3.6 stl, 90.0 FT pct
    3. Kevin Garnett, BOS +10.6 64.7 FG pct, 11.3 reb, 3.3 blk
    4. Dwyane Wade, MIA +10.4 41.0 pts, 7.8 ast, 4.1 blk, 2.5 stl
    5. Carmelo Anthony, DEN +9.2 40.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 51.7 FG pct, 56.2 3-pt FG pct
    6. Eddie House, BOS +9.1 25.8 pts, 54.4 FG pct, 59.9 3-pt FG pct, 0.0 TO
    7. Jason Kidd, DAL +8.6 7.0 reb, 6.7 ast, 3.8 stl, 85.0 FT pct
    8. Brandon Roy, POR +8.4 34.8 pts, 6.7 reb, 89.7 FT pct
    9. Kobe Bryant, LAL +8.2 46.7 pts, 6.4 reb, 42.4 3-pt FG pct, 90.6 FT pct
    10. Trevor Ariza, LAL +7.5 56.5 FG pct, 45.5 3-pt FG pct, 4.2 stl (best in NBA)

    A few observations:

    • Let’s start at the top, where you’ll find the MVP himself, LeBron James. His rating of plus-20.0 was nearly double that of the second-place finisher, Chris Paul (plus-11.4).

    Some might be skeptical, but look at LeBron’s crunch-time averages: 47.0 points (on 54 percent shooting from the field), 11.1 rebounds and 10.6 assists per 40 minutes. And his current rating is actually a bit low for him, as it dropped from plus-23.2 in the regular season — mainly because of his six turnovers in 22 crunch-time minutes this postseason (including five in the crunch time of Game 4 on Tuesday).

    • If LeBron is No. 1 and Chris Paul is No. 2, then where is Kobe Bryant, the player most analysts consider the best finisher in the NBA?

    He’s just ninth in the league, with a crunch-time rating of plus-8.2. Kobe’s averages of 46.7 points (46 percent from the field), 6.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 40 minutes of crunch time don’t match up with those of King James.

    • What might be even more surprising is that joining Kobe near the top of the ratings are two of his teammates, Trevor Ariza (10th in the NBA at plus-7.5) and Pau Gasol (12th at plus-6.5).

    Ariza leads the NBA with an average of 4.2 steals per 40 crunch-time minutes — just ask the Nuggets if you need evidence of his ability to force a turnover in the clutch. And Gasol shoots a ridiculous 65 percent from the field in crunch time. Maybe the Lakers should reconsider their strategy of running their offense through Bryant on every possession late in a close game?

    • The crunch-time ratings also show us which players have stepped up in the clutch this postseason relative to the regular season. The Magic entered the postseason with their best crunch-time performer, Jameer Nelson (plus-4.3), out for the season with an injury. Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard came into the postseason with slightly above-average ratings of plus-1.4 each but have really stepped it up in close games in the playoffs.

    Howard has moved up his overall rating up to plus-2.5 with his 22.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes of crunch time, while Lewis is up to plus-1.8 on the strength of his 5-for-9 shooting from downtown in the clutch, as demonstrated in the conference finals.

    • On the other hand, a big-name performer who has faded from the spotlight this postseason is none other than the Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony. No, I didn’t forget about the game-winning 3-pointer Melo hit in Game 3 of the conference semifinals against the Mavericks. As it turns out, that was one of only five shots out of 14 attempts he has hit in the clutch this postseason, way down from his regular-season percentage of 56.5.

    Anthony has seen his crunch-time rating decline from plus-11.5 at the end of the regular season (third in the NBA) down to plus-9.2 at this point in the postseason. This is not to say that Melo isn’t a good closer or anything of the sort (his rating is still fifth-highest in the NBA), just that his late-game performance in close games has been a bit out of character this postseason.

    While in some cases this "new" crunch-time rating tells was what is already obvious (LeBron James is really, really good), at other times the numbers might reveal something more surprising, such as Brandon Roy’s outperforming Kobe Bryant in the crunch.

    Whether you’re ready to accept that or not, at least the next time you’re involved in a debate about who is the best "closer" in the NBA, you can bring some numbers into the discussion.