Eastern Conference Finals: Who Do You Want?
I come to you today not as a semi-objective analyst or an elite member of the grassroots media, but as a fan — heart on my sleeve, the longing for a championship that will cure all ills trumping all other considerations. For a moment it is not objectivity that rules here, or even truth, but emotion, desire, and need. Come along with me, on this roller coaster ride of emotions and championship aspirations that are all part of rooting for Kobe Bryant's Lakers.
Tuesday night, I spent three hours in a CPR course that should have taken an hour and a half at the absolute most. It was excruciatingly slow and pointless, and it caused me to miss my dinner and most of my evening plans. I was pissed off.
The wife and I headed to our favorite bar in a nearby small Kansas town (all of our in-town bars are filled with smoke, which doesn't suit either of us). We arrived in time to catch most of the fourth quarter of Game 4 between the Magic and the Cavaliers. The bar was only meant to be open for another 20 minutes, but the bartender graciously let us stick around until the end of the game.
What followed, for me, was 45 minutes to an hour of internal anguish over the question of which team I should be rooting for. On the surface, it's very simple; three factors were at play:
- The longer the Eastern Conference Finals goes, the better; I don't want the Magic sitting at home, preparing for the Lakers while the Western Conference slugfest continues.
- The Lakers match up better against the Cavaliers, and as such, the Cavs would seem to be a preferable Finals matchup (more thoughts on this issue below, which is far more complicated than it appears at first)
- Dwight Howard is my favorite non-Laker, and I LOVE the Magic. At the same time, I can't deny that I take a certain amount of pleasure in seeing the Cavs fall back to reality, especially when it's the Magic delivering the reality check.
Click on through to read more about the complexities of my inner struggle regarding the Eastern Conference Finals...
This was a classic head versus heart situation. My head told me that I had every reason to want a Cleveland win, at least in Game 4, and probably overall as well. The matchup issues Orlando poses should be obvious to everyone watching by now. The Cavs and their fans could tell you all about it. But the scary thought is that the Magic provide a similar matchup nightmare for the Lakers. I feel confident about a Lakers championship over the Cavaliers; the Magic, on the other hand, make me nervous.
But my heart just loves Orlando, and has a serious distaste for Cleveland. Part of it, for Orlando, is the style of game they play. It's exciting! It's also the kind of game that supposedly doesn't work in the playoffs. I can't remember the last time when such an unconventional team was so close to competing in the Finals, and the idea that the team whose style isn't suited to the postseason could dominate the playoffs and win a championship has a certain appeal to it.
Meanwhile, I simply love Dwight Howard. He's a beast, a freak of nature. At the same time, he's also a thoroughly enjoyable human being. He represents the hope that truly dominant NBA superstars could be self-aware, and yet not arrogant; intense, and yet not unlikable; competitive, and yet not assholes; dominant, and yet capable of having fun and letting it show. He is a comedian in his own right, a big kid who refuses to grow up in all the right ways. Most of all, he is genuine and without pretention. Kobe Bryant's public image at times seems cold and calculating, a bit too well-spoken (personally, I love that about him, but it irks some poeple). LeBron James is self-entitled and unabashedly arrogant, and one big, always-on self-promotion; you're not looking at a human being, you're looking at a living, breathing, 24/7 marketing campaign. Dwight Howard? He's just who he is. And who he is just happens to be a truly likable person.
Then, of course, there is my distaste for Cleveland and, in a round about way, LeBron James. To be fair to James, this is less about him than it is about the media and the fans. In fact, I'll repeat that, so that I'm clear: I don't have a problem with LeBron James; I have a problem with the media and fans that give him more credit than he has yet earned. That buzzer beater in Game 2? That was the second game-winning shot of his entire career, the first of the playoffs. Kobe Bryant does that in his sleep, and he has done it in the Finals. Everybody is in such a hurry to annoint LeBron the King, even before he has won anything, but as Kobe has shown us in these conference finals, that appears to have been a bit premature.
How I View LeBronThis may surprise you — if you’ve read some of my past work, you may have gotten the opposite impression — but I’m a big fan of LeBron James. How can I not be? Much like Kobe Bryant, I can’t help but respect the rare combination of incredible talent and the work ethic to match. After all, those areas of life in which I am the most naturally talented also tend to be the ones in which I put forth the least effort, tempted instead to "get by" on talent alone. That refusal to simply be satisfied with unthinkable natural talent is why I hold so much respect for Kobe, and that is also the type of person that Kobe tends to have high regard for.
LeBron James is such a player, and as such, it would be hypocritical and just plain irrational for me not to have a great amount of respect and awe for him, for the same reasons.
But I also believe that credit should only be given where it is due. To give a person credit for something that they have not actually achieved is, in fact, a disservice to that person — it devalues what they have actually achieved, and renders our professed respect for them insincere.
Unfortunately, this is what we have tended to do with LeBron James. Knowing that he is the future, and seeing his vast potential, which we know he has the work ethic to fulfill, we get ahead of ourselves, giving him credit for things he has not yet accomplished. It is not fair to those, like Kobe Bryant, who have put in the effort and achieved those things. It is not fair to those, like Dwyane Wade, who don’t get the same special treatment based on as-yet-unrealized potential. And most of all, it is not fair to LeBron James, who deserves to be given respect for what he has accomplished, not for some unrealistic, airbrushed perception of who we want him to be.
This, quite simply, is what I strive to do: To give credit where it is due, at all times, but to expect that a person should earn his reputation, not have it handed to him. Only then will it be of any value.
I've made my position on LeBron James clear in the past. It's not that I don't respect him; I think he's a tremendous player, I respect and fear him, and I'm convinced that he will retire as one of the best to ever play the game. I'm just a bit more realistic about his progress, not expecting him to have mastered everything at the young age of 24. (See the extended quote to the right for more.)
My distaste for LeBron and his team has more to do with the media than the players themselves. I'm tired of the constant onslaught, the short memories and revisionist history, the double standard which praises LeBron for the exact same things that Kobe has been endlessly criticized for. The way the media all but proclaimed the Cavs to be the inevitable eventual NBA champions after they ran roughshod over two of the weakest teams in the playoffs, while the Lakers struggled against some truly impressive competition, only increased my distaste for the entire situation.
So it is that I can't help but enjoy seeing LeBron and the Cavs struggle against the first legitimate competition they have faced. It's not an attitude of spitefulness; it's simply a sigh of relief that comes from being vindicated. The untouchable Cavaliers have been brought down to earth; now they can share in our sufferings, and the media can write a harsh word or two about them, for a change, instead of always about my Lakers.
So it is that I was tormented on Tuesday night, torn between between my head, which told me rationally that a Cleveland win is better for my Lakers in every way, and my heart, which was uncontrollable in the quiet pleasure it took in seeing the Cavs struggle as my Lakers have, and in the satisfaction of feeling vindicated based on previous analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of LeBron James and his Cavaliers.
In the end, my heart won, overpowering my head and forcing me to root for Superman and the Magic. Needless to say, Dwight Howard and Crew lifted my spirits, easily erasing from memory the three miserable hours that had started my night off on the wrong foot.
Nonetheless, the inner struggle remains – and believe it or not, it is even more complicated than I have yet explained.
Consider this: So far, I've discussed which team would be a better matchup for the Lakers in the Finals. But I haven't accounted for two decidedly less pleasant ideas: the possibility that the Lakers might not make it to the Finals, and the other possibility that they might make it there and lose.
Surely you see where I'm going. Should the Lakers and Cavs both lose – especially if they both lose to the Magic – the only significant change in the current status quo will be the official arrival of Dwight Howard to the big stage. Kobe Bryant vs. LeBron James? Not much changes. But if the Lakers lose, and the Cavaliers go on to win? Nothing could be worse.
It's not that such an event would shake my faith in my team, or my favorite player, nor would it have much of an effect on my position in the Kobe vs. LeBron debate. The issue here has less to do with reality than perception. If LeBron wins and Kobe does not, the discussion will be considered closed, and Lakers fans will never hear the end of it. Quite frankly, I don't have the energy for that.
Worst of all would be the possibility of LeBron winning and Kobe losing in a matchup between their two teams in the Finals. If the Lakers lose to Denver, and the Cavs beat Orlando and then go on to win the championship, it will be bad enough. But if the Cavs actually beat the Lakers in the Finals, life as a Lakers fan, and a Kobe Bryant fan, will be difficult.
Of course, the flip side is also true. If LeBron loses to the Magic, and the Lakers beat them, the "Who is better?" discussion will be placed on hold indefinitely – likely until LeBron actually does win a championship. But if LeBron and the Cavs come back to beat the Magic, only to be defeated by Kobe and the Lakers in the Finals? Glory of glory! Many of the remaining negative attitudes towards Kobe will shift dramatically, he will get the credit he deserves, and the LeBron James holdouts will bite their tongues. Until LeBron wins at least one, his proponents won't have a leg to stand on. From this perspective, and with faith in my team and its floor leader, there can be nothing more apetizing (at least now that the Celtics are out) than the Cavs getting to the Finals so that the Lakers can beat them there.
This issue is compounded, once again, by my love for Dwight Howard and the Magic. The idea of the Lakers not winning the championship this year makes me nauseous. But if the Lakers must lose, I can think of no player and team that I would prefer they lose to than Dwight Howard and his Magic. Such an outcome would be difficult, but after the initial shock of a second straight Finals loss, the consolation prize would be my second-hand joy at the Magic's success.
You see my dilemma? Late in the fourth quarter, I turned to my wife and put the question to her: Is the potential reward of beating LeBron and the Cavs in the Finals worth the potential risk of them beating Kobe and the Lakers?
That is the question. And having outlined my dilemma, I put it to you. Of course, we don't actually have any say in the outcome. As my wife so pragmatically put it, "It doesn't matter, because there's really nothing you can do about it." She's right of course – but we're sports fans! This is what we do! So while I understand that que sera sera, I still want to know what you think, what you're hoping for, as a Lakers fan – and why.
And of course, be sure to tune in here for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.
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Comments
All i want is a seven game series
I want the lakers to have the rest advantage. the lakers need to get a bit healthier.
If i had to choose a team tho, ill take the lebrons.
La has the lebrons number.
magic would be a 6 game series 4 the lakeshow.
Magic pose problems for the Lakeshow
Take the Magic starting 5 and you can see the problems that the Lakers will be in trouble facing. Like who will be guarding and not falling asleep on the often camping Rashard Lewis and will Gasol/Bynum/Odom team be able to slow Dwight’s production in the paint? Will the Lakers have the depth to slow the deep Magic bench? I have a feeling if the Lakers get down and try to hang with the deadly 3-shooting Magic then it will be a quick-draw that the Lakers will lose and the Magic could close the series early.
Assuming both teams make it out of their Conference series’ alive
When we play the game like we're suppossed to play it, it is pretty easy. Making the extra pass, making the simple play, it's not about between your legs, behind your back, and all of that, it's just about scoring the bucket.
-Karl Malone
by Hawks5JoshSmith on May 28, 2009 4:42 PM PDT reply actions
is rashard lewis going to
defend pau or bynum??
He may score but he will be in a to of foul troulbe on the other end of the floor.
LIke in their 2 games this year?
Some people swear they down as can be
Turns out those same Homies Sit down to pee
by I blocked Patrick Chewing on May 28, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions
The Lakers beat Cleveland both times this season and lost to Orlando both times
And if I recall correctly LA had its lineups intact in all of those games except the last Cleveland win. I can’t see how that situation changes that much from the regular season, both teams have played about the same in playoffs.
Bork bork bork!
no bynum in orlando
he changes things it forces rshard lewis to play defense in the paint.
Orl would have to pick who is rashard going to gaurd pau or bynum?
Either way he is going to be in foul trouble gaurding 1 of those guys.
Both Orlando win's were close
Lakers could’ve won both games
A potential game winning Sasha three rattled out with 3 seconds left in Orlando
The game at Staples involved the Lakers having a decent lead for most of the first 3 quarters, then Jameer Nelson got hot and hit three 3 balls late to put them over the top.
Nick Adenhart - 1986 - 2009 R.I.P.
The Two Choices....
are Home Court against a team that the Lakers lost twice to and who also gets three straight games at home after the first two. What if they take one of the first two in LA which is a big possibility. The second choice is no home court advantage against a team in which the Lakers beat twice already. Based on that I would take Cleveland.
The biggest issues with Orlando is that they have more mismatches in Orlando’s favor and the Lakers do not have one single player who can match up and at least contest against Howard because if they double team which they will have to do then that opens up the three point line.
The X factor will be Bynum or at least to put Mbenga in there to just foul Howard and send him to the line. Either way I would not double team Howard at all.
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on May 28, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions
guys, so i've been thinking about this...
does this series remind anyone else of the 2004 finals with our beloved lakers? the underdog comes out and surprised the home team in game one, the the home team makes a miracle shot to get a victory in game two (Kobe’s tying three to force OT), and then if the orlando can close out tonight, it will be almost an exact blueprint with the underdog sweeping the rest of the series.
just a random thought i had.
I can't imagine how painful that series must have been for you guys
Watching Kobe and Shaq have big games but nobody else provides much help and the Detroit Pistons suffocating the Lakers with unrelenting defense.
That game 2 three pointer by Bryant was the one bright spot in an otherwise gloomy series.
Orlando because I freakin' love that team
Well, I’m a big Orlando fan so… what better finals than to see my Purple and Gold and Blue and White going at it right?
Well I couldn't vote because I have like 8 variables. (maybe exaggerating)
I think the Lakers matchup with the Cavs better. I really want to see the Cavs/Lakers finals just for all the excitement it will bring. I really want Kobe to win a championship and Finals MVP with Lebron standing there watching (crying?). I too want to end the Kobe/Lebron debate once and for all. However I would much rather lose to Orlando than Cleveland.
Next problem. I have tickets to all of the finals games. I have to sell them. I know what a horrible fan, but I have no choice. These tickets will pay most of my bills for like 2 months. When I first got my season tickets it was as a fan only. Now with the fu*%#ng economy I have no choice but to sell most of them. I am only keeping them each year because I want to have them when times turn around and because I can make a slight profit each year selling them. OK on to my point. Against Cleveland I can probably sell them for more money, but there are only 3 home games. Against Orlando there are 4 home games. However against Cleveland there is a much better likelihood of all 3 home games being played because of the 2-3-2 format.
Like I said, I have way too many variables here. I have absolutely no idea who to root for. (except the Lakers of course)
Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny
That's quite the economic breakdown
But you know what they say about the best laid plans of mice and men…
Magic, hands down...here's why:
1) Like I say before all new matchups: What happens in the regular season stays in the regular season. 0-2 against the magic is insignificant, as is 2-0 against the Cavs.
2) The magic are the least toughest team left in the playoffs. They’re pretty soft when you move past Dwight Howard. This would be good for the Lakers, as we’ve been tested and turned into a pretty tough team by Houston and now Denver. They are mentally tough, but so are all teams in the finals.
3) If the Cavs were to win, they’d be coming in with a degree of confidence easily capable of overcoming our “matchup advantage”.
4) Remember that matchup advantage we were supposed to have over Denver and Houston? Yeah…
5) Homecourt advantage in the finals means so much. It’d be much easier to steal one of games 3, 4 or 5 vs the magic than games 1 or 2 or 6 or 7 vs the Cavs.
6) Lebron is a much harder match-up for the Lakers than all of the Magic combined. Bynum will be the best center Howard will encounter in the playoffs. Expect Bynum to get some legit burn. I dunno about all these match-up issues everyone is talking about. Gasol is just as bad of a matchup for Lewis as he is for Gasol. Rafer Alston isn’t the all-star caliber point guard the Lakers are used to dealing with (Mo. Williams IS). What does that leave? Hedo-Turk? Please.
7) The fact that you posted this before we’ve closed out the series is downright terrifying Josh.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
also...
I like Bynum on Howard 1 on 1. Make him work. Stay on the 3-point shooters. The Magic are much more likely to beat you that way then letting Howard get 30. Biggest deal against the Magic will of course be rebounding. Can’t let Howard get 7+ offensive boards a game.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Point 7
Fair enough, though in fairness to me, my post does account for that fact. It’s not about who I want the Lakers to face – it’s about who I want to win the East.
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I guess but
Home court means less against the Magic than against other teams. They’re an excellent road team and Hedo for one actually plays better on the road than at home.
Ya but...
they’re losing that lead just as quick. Why isn’t anyone bashing them about their poor play yet the Lakers are dogged every time they drop a game?
Are you serious?
To keep your job in the media, you are never allowed to talk bad about Lebron. He’s the chosen one after all.
22 point lead down to 1 at halftime
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My head is trying REALLY HARD to get me to root for the Cavs
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I chose none of the above
because I just want the Lakers in the Finals no matter who we play
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
Off topic question. What does "points in the paint" mean???
I would have assumed that a layup or dunk would be “points in the paint”. I bring this up because last night at the 6:18 mark of 4th quarter Linus Kleiza comes right down the middle and makes a layup. Then at the 5:15 mark (1 minute later) ESPN puts up the following graphic. “Denver has not scored in paint since 5:11 left in the 3rd quarter”. Are they crazy or do I not understand “points in the paint”?
Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny
I remember reading it somewhere… I’m about 97% sure that free throws do count as points in the paint
Technically..
if you’re standing inthe paint while shooting a free throw then it’s a violation. Just sayin’
I'm going to doubt that before checking
"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson
by Gils_Keloids on May 28, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
i think that it should be magic goin on cause i just dont like lebron. like u said josh, i respect him, but he’s a very arrogant guy. and thanks for putting that thing about dwade up. he doesnt get any respect. he’s def my fav player but he’s the 2nd best player in the nba to kobe. u have to be the best closer to be the best player, and that honor go’s to kobe. dwade is a sick closer too. lebron, obviously, is not.
Wow
Shaq won three titles in the 21st century. Howard if you’re talking overall, but he hasn’t won a crackerjack prize yet. We all see how childish Shaq is, and how quickly he’s declined. But Shaq during the 3-peat years was more dominant a force than Dwight Howard can dream of.
I think it’s just a sad reflection on the state of big men today, that a man with 1 true offensive move is being considered one of the best of the century.
He's not polished, but "1 true offensive move" is not giving Superman enough credit
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I don't think that Shaq can ever be as dominant
without his size. I concur the man was crazy in his prime, but all he did was throw it in and had some athletic ability. Dwight is the ultimate hybrid of power and speed, thus giving him a slight upper hand.
RIP Nick Adenhart 4/9/09
by vlad IS my man on May 28, 2009 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I think that's absolute crazy talk
You can’t separate a player from his size, especially a big man. There are bound to be a fair amount of people in this world with Shaq’s size (like say at least 10-20), but none of them had Shaq’s athleticism. Howard is a better athlete in the sense that he can jump higher and probably run faster too. But Shaq in his prime was as good an athlete as you can see over 7 feet tall.
And saying all he did was throw it in is pretty ludicrous in comparison to Dwight Howard. Shaq’s offensive arsenal puts Dwight to shame. That’ll probably change some day, but Dwight’s offensive game right now doesn’t even match what Bynum is capable of.
Agreed
I’m not a big fan of Shaq’s, but he actually had a very impressive offensive arsenal, and when he chose to, he could sure defend. When he was in shape, he was nimble, quick as a cat, and could move like no guy his size ever should be able to.
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I found Shaq's game pretty hideous actually
Although he was far more effective than Pau, from a pure enjoyment point of view, I’ll take Pau’s finesse over Shaq’s power any time. But his athleticism in his prime is undeniable, and as his career progressed, he became a pretty skilled offensive player.
Then again, when he was Howard’s age, I think he pretty much had the same array of moves.
I vote neither, but unfortunately that's not an option
Obviously we were swept by the Magic in the regular season and while this might not mean anything, they still present a nightmare match-up for almost any team in the league. I think that they pose less of a problem for the Lakers than the Cavs, but if I were PJ it’s not an assignment I would look forward to. 2 players over 6’9’’ who can shoot the three is very hard to defend, and Howard will draw endless fouls on Bynum/Gasol.
So we want to play the Cavs, right? NO. A team like the Cavs would kill a streaky team like the Lakers with the kind of consistency they displayed in the first 2 rounds. Plus, I shudder to think of what kind of performance LeBron would put up when faced head to head with Kobe since he seems so hell-bent on outdueling him from afar (no I don’t think it will be like the regular season once the bright lights of the finals are turned on).
Of course, all of this is moot if the Lakers play like there is something on the line, which I think they will. Whoever they face they will probably be the underdogs, and the Lakers seem to love proving naysayers wrong. So in conclusion, I don’t like either of these teams matched-up against the Lakers, but I think that the Lakers will win the title regardless (yes, I realize that this post made me sound slightly crazy…thanks for reading)
One last thing, since I didn’t really answer the question. Gun to my head, I would rather take my chances with the Magic
Quicken Loans Arena is vewy vewy quiet ...
You could hear a pin drop in there.
C’mon Cavs fans, it’s only a one point game!
"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson
What has gotten into Mickael Pietrus?
He’s been making some crazy three pointers!
"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson
by Gils_Keloids on May 28, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah let's get him
And Chauncey Billups at the point
"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson
by Gils_Keloids on May 28, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's not stop there!
I bet we could build a cloning machine and get the 1987 Magic Johnson, the 1988 James Worthy, and the 1980 Kareem!
Hell! While we are at it
I’ll take the 2009 (Begining of the season) Andrew Bynum.
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on May 28, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions
He wasn’t that great in the beginning of the season, i’d probably take the Drew during the duration of the 2 weeks before he went down.
Gils... at least wait until Game 6 or 7 to root for the Magic!
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THIS IS FAR FROM OVER
Well, after falling into a 3-1 deficit and losing two games they shouldn’t have lost, the Cavs still have a chance to do something extraordinary.
They’ll have to win at DisneyWorld, where they’ve proven they can play at, to force a game 7 back in Cleveland, where anything is possible.
Especially with the world’s greatest player on the floor.
Still, it would have been nice to be 3-2 right now, or even better, done with this damn Magic team.
it’s amazing though, cause all 4 teams playing right now are def. capable of winning a championship, no team is completely dominating the other. its just about who executes better and who wants it the most.
I'm sure you'll settle for LeBron...
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You never know what can happen
Game 6 should be pretty crazy.
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
lakers have to overcome their personality disorder to close out on the road and cavs have to find a way to gut out a win in the magic kingdom. lets c if lbj can out magic the magic again.
Very true
We haven’t been able to close out on the road and the Cavs haven’t won in Orlando this series.
More fun basketball or stressfull basketball for us Laker fans
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
No, we haven't
Game 5 against Utah was in LA, as was Game 7 against Houston.
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Orlando kinda let CLE off of the hook...
In the last few minutes of the game taking those outside shots.
Well, we're waiting....
They made every one of those shots in game 4. Orlando never lets Cleveland off the hook. They just weren’t as lucky tonight as they’ve been in the last 4 games.
It isn't luck
This is Orlando’s game. They hit those shots. The fact that they didn’t fall tonight is the aberration, not the other way around.
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They took those shots too fast...
And they should have tried to score more in the paint the last few minutes, especially when they grabbed the lead.
Well, we're waiting....
You live by the three then you die by the three
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
Actually, there's decent evidence that suggests that, since the 3 is the most efficient shot on the floor, you live by the three... that's all.
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Well if you start taking a bunch of them late in a close game and don't hit any of them, then....
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
There's a difference between making that your bread and butter throughout, and just going to it late
There’s decent evidence that says the former works. The latter is just a prayer.
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I know there is a difference
I am just saying that sooner or later teams can go cold from beyond the arc.
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
Yeah, but it's a question of whether that's your game or not
For Orlando, that’s their game. Taking lots of threes late in the game is no different from what they did early in the game, and in the middle. For the Lakers, it’s not usually their game. So when they try to start chucking 3s at the end, it’s more of a prayer than anything.
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Lebron in the triangle? ...
As opposed to running the Lebron offense in CLE?
Well, we're waiting....
No Reggie Miller just said “If Lebron was put on the Lakers with their talent they would never lose”
riiiiiiiiiight
Yeah and then Gasol, Lamar and etc, start missing shots and they will ask where's Lebron team
I don’t believe that if you switch players one will make a greater impact, out of the triangle Lebron will be able to make plays, I’ll give him that but the post is critical and Lebron doesn’t yet have a consistant post game and his jump shot will be needed out of that triangle offense which Lebron is still working on so I don’t believe they will win every game. Thats just giving Lebron WAY TOO MUCH credit. And I hate these what if questions and the guessing game questions because we will never know and you can’t really say for sure replacing a player will be better then the other, it’s just dumb to me because you are stressing points that actually will never happen and is your opinion.
LeBron and Kobe together?
What would that be like?
http://myfunnypics.org/d/1337-1/Kobe+Bryant+and+Lebron+James+in+this+funny+photo.jpg
The apprentice kneels before the master....lol
GO BRONCOS IN 2009 AND BEYOND!!
Lakers lead Nuggets 3-2
Actually, I was thinking more along the lines of this
“Oh James, stop it…”
“But you’re so sexy!”
(If this comment gets deleted, I totally understand.)
Coulda....shoulda....woulda....
In hindsight anything is possible. I’m sure Cleveland could be up right now in the series. But! If it wasn’t for Lebron’s miracle three pointer, the Cavs would of been swept. Actually, in hindsight that is more of a possibility than any other scenario that any Cleveland fan wants to point out.
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on May 28, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions
About Kobe’s “lack of leadership and friendliness to teammates” and Lebron’s GREAT amazing leadership….
In the real world, a good supervisor is rarely a likeable, loveable supervisor. In fact, there is usually a healthy level of intimidation that comes along with being the leader.
It's also just not accurate
Anyone who actually watched the game last night saw that.
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Hey Josh, that insider piece you wanted is here.
As these conference finals games come down to the wire virtually every night, the same question is on the mind of every player, coach and fan: Who will come up big in crunch time?
Many insist that Kobe Bryant is the best closer in the game, and LeBron James has provided the most memorable late-game moment of the playoffs thus far with his buzzer-beater in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. But most of the mainstream discussion about who comes up big in the clutch and who doesn’t is based on opinion and what we remember from watching a few games, not on any sort of statistics. Until now.
After studying the data, I’ve come up with a formula that takes into account an NBA player’s statistics and combines them into a single number that summarizes his overall crunch-time performance. The numbers take into account both regular-season and postseason performance in 2008-09, but in order to be rated, a player had to have played a minimum of 50 crunch-time minutes in the regular season (a requirement that 201 players met this season).
Like 82games.com, which provided the data, I defined “crunch time” as when the score was within five points with five or less minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime.
To derive the overall rating, I used a statistical method that weights a player’s basic statistics (points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, field-goal percentage, etc.) according to how they correlate with a team’s scoring margin while he is on the court. Basically, the rating counts a player’s “good” statistics (points, rebounds, etc.) positively and a player’s “bad” statistics (turnovers, missed shots, etc.) negatively, then adjusts for minutes played to get a single plus/minus rating (which I set to a scale of per 40 minutes). In advanced NBA statistics circles, this is known as a statistical plus-minus formula.
Now on to the part that really matters: the results.
2008-09 Crunch-Time Rating Leaders (through May 27)
Player Rating Crunch-time stats (per 40 minutes)
1. LeBron James, CLE +20.0 47.0 pts, 11.1 reb, 10.6 ast, 54.0 FG pct
2. Chris Paul, NO +11.4 37.3 pts, 8.7 ast, 3.6 stl, 90.0 FT pct
3. Kevin Garnett, BOS +10.6 64.7 FG pct, 11.3 reb, 3.3 blk
4. Dwyane Wade, MIA +10.4 41.0 pts, 7.8 ast, 4.1 blk, 2.5 stl
5. Carmelo Anthony, DEN +9.2 40.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 51.7 FG pct, 56.2 3-pt FG pct
6. Eddie House, BOS +9.1 25.8 pts, 54.4 FG pct, 59.9 3-pt FG pct, 0.0 TO
7. Jason Kidd, DAL +8.6 7.0 reb, 6.7 ast, 3.8 stl, 85.0 FT pct
8. Brandon Roy, POR +8.4 34.8 pts, 6.7 reb, 89.7 FT pct
9. Kobe Bryant, LAL +8.2 46.7 pts, 6.4 reb, 42.4 3-pt FG pct, 90.6 FT pct
10. Trevor Ariza, LAL +7.5 56.5 FG pct, 45.5 3-pt FG pct, 4.2 stl (best in NBA)A few observations:
• Let’s start at the top, where you’ll find the MVP himself, LeBron James. His rating of plus-20.0 was nearly double that of the second-place finisher, Chris Paul (plus-11.4).
Some might be skeptical, but look at LeBron’s crunch-time averages: 47.0 points (on 54 percent shooting from the field), 11.1 rebounds and 10.6 assists per 40 minutes. And his current rating is actually a bit low for him, as it dropped from plus-23.2 in the regular season — mainly because of his six turnovers in 22 crunch-time minutes this postseason (including five in the crunch time of Game 4 on Tuesday).
• If LeBron is No. 1 and Chris Paul is No. 2, then where is Kobe Bryant, the player most analysts consider the best finisher in the NBA?
He’s just ninth in the league, with a crunch-time rating of plus-8.2. Kobe’s averages of 46.7 points (46 percent from the field), 6.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per 40 minutes of crunch time don’t match up with those of King James.
• What might be even more surprising is that joining Kobe near the top of the ratings are two of his teammates, Trevor Ariza (10th in the NBA at plus-7.5) and Pau Gasol (12th at plus-6.5).
Ariza leads the NBA with an average of 4.2 steals per 40 crunch-time minutes — just ask the Nuggets if you need evidence of his ability to force a turnover in the clutch. And Gasol shoots a ridiculous 65 percent from the field in crunch time. Maybe the Lakers should reconsider their strategy of running their offense through Bryant on every possession late in a close game?
• The crunch-time ratings also show us which players have stepped up in the clutch this postseason relative to the regular season. The Magic entered the postseason with their best crunch-time performer, Jameer Nelson (plus-4.3), out for the season with an injury. Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard came into the postseason with slightly above-average ratings of plus-1.4 each but have really stepped it up in close games in the playoffs.
Howard has moved up his overall rating up to plus-2.5 with his 22.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per 40 minutes of crunch time, while Lewis is up to plus-1.8 on the strength of his 5-for-9 shooting from downtown in the clutch, as demonstrated in the conference finals.
• On the other hand, a big-name performer who has faded from the spotlight this postseason is none other than the Nuggets’ Carmelo Anthony. No, I didn’t forget about the game-winning 3-pointer Melo hit in Game 3 of the conference semifinals against the Mavericks. As it turns out, that was one of only five shots out of 14 attempts he has hit in the clutch this postseason, way down from his regular-season percentage of 56.5.
Anthony has seen his crunch-time rating decline from plus-11.5 at the end of the regular season (third in the NBA) down to plus-9.2 at this point in the postseason. This is not to say that Melo isn’t a good closer or anything of the sort (his rating is still fifth-highest in the NBA), just that his late-game performance in close games has been a bit out of character this postseason.
While in some cases this “new” crunch-time rating tells was what is already obvious (LeBron James is really, really good), at other times the numbers might reveal something more surprising, such as Brandon Roy’s outperforming Kobe Bryant in the crunch.
Whether you’re ready to accept that or not, at least the next time you’re involved in a debate about who is the best “closer” in the NBA, you can bring some numbers into the discussion.
So when a player surpasses...
Lebron in this statistical breakdown, do they become the new King?
Well, we're waiting....
the nba, where being told by statisticians...
to disbelieve your lying eyes in favor of their woefully incomplete formulas happens
I read an article like this...
…and it reminds me how useless stats are in this type of situations.
Kobe is discussed as the best closer because he IS. It’s about what you see, not about what the numbers say. Jason Kidd? Kevin Garnett? These guys are notorious for being losers when it matters most throughout their careers.
If you watch the Lakers all season and honestly believe that the team would be better off running the offense through Gasol in the crunch time when it matters most…you’re an idiot. I don’t give a flying shit what the stats say.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Again we find...
CAUSATION vs. CORRELATION.
Pau and Trevor are AS GOOD as they are in the crunch time BECAUSE OF KOBE MF’in BRYANT. IT’S OBVIOUS.
They will tell you that now. They will tell you that 5 years from now. They will tell you that when they are interviewed when Kobe is inducted into the HoF. They will tell you that at Kobe’s funeral and they will tell that to their grandchildren’s children.
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Exactly
Even during the Olympics Lebron pointed out that people don’t like Kobe because he doesn’t meet the standards or fit the mold of what everyone else wants him to be.
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on May 28, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I want the Magic, because the Crabs are tedious.
The end of game 5 clearly illustrates why everyone should want the Magic in the finals. Who the hell wants to watch Lebron barrel into the paint and get bailed out by the refs over and over? (when he’s not chucking up garbage from the perimeter) Not only is that boring, but as Laker fans it will be irksome in the extreme. We’ll be focused on the refs the whole series. (And that’s without mentioning Floppy McFlopsalot Varejao.)
The Magic will make for a fantastic series. They’re exciting. They’re not big floppers. They’ll be a huge challenge for the Lakers, in all the right ways.
Read the rules – call teams by their names, or you'll get banned. Thanks!
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by Josh Tucker on May 28, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions
You mean the Crabs? or.........floppy mcflopsalot?
Cause floppy mcflopsalot is damn funny and belongs in the vernacular. Could be used to describe any habitual flopper. I’m just sayin’.
Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny
So far, we haven't put any rules on player names
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by Josh Tucker on May 28, 2009 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions
As the resident expert on all matters proper (or aesthetic)
I have no problem with it as a one time joke. Just don’t call him that every single time, because then it just gets old.
Here's my take and I agree with what was written also
I want to see the Cavs lose just so they(the media) can get off the Lebron is better train.
I do believe Orlando will be a tough matchup for the Lakers because of Howard and the Lakers 0-2 record against them in the regular season.
The Cavs would be the perfect matchup and a easy matchup, in an easy Lakers win to a championship because Cavs have NO inside presence to combat Gasol and Bynum.
However going against the Magic might be the first round where the Lakers will have the PG advantage because Alston is too small and Fisher can post him up something Lakers did when Alston was in Houston.
Also after watching the Cavs win game 5 I just realized how tough it would be for the Lakers to close out Denver in Denver, Lakers will need everyone’s “A” GAME.
Even with the mismatch problems Magic do have, Lakers will have home court a big plus because if Magic play Lakers the way they play the Cavs at home, getting in big HOLES early I don’t see the Lakers letting up and allowing Orlando to come back to win the game.
SO I would take Lakers in 7 over Magic because I just can’t imagine seeing the Lakers get to the Finals again and losing.
I think I'll be a part of the minority and and keep rooting for the Nuggets ...
I hope they make the finals and I just want a Game 6 win.
It is fun to look into the future, but for me I don’t know who I’d want the Nuggets to play … I just want a win tomorrow night!!!
Too much to ask for?
Pickaxe & Roll.com: 5,280 reasons to be a Nuggets fan
Yeah Nate thats definitly TOO MUCH TO ASK especially writing in a Lakers Blog
I want the Lakers to win and close your Nuggets out and give them no hope for game 7 so I’m expecting a tight game and hopefully Lakers can finish this in 6, but good luck.
Good luck as well! Hoping for another great game!
Pickaxe & Roll.com: 5,280 reasons to be a Nuggets fan
by Nate Timmons on May 29, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I believe you ARE the minority
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by Josh Tucker on May 28, 2009 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I figured as much! ha ha ... best of luck tonight everyone.
Pickaxe & Roll.com: 5,280 reasons to be a Nuggets fan
by Nate Timmons on May 29, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
And to you as well
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by Josh Tucker on May 29, 2009 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Best of Luck?
It’s great that we’re all (more or less) being encouraged to act as mature, respectful adults on this site… something that I greatly appreciate, as it seems like the opponents’ blogs are filled with little more than childish haters who can think of nothing more to say than “Lakers Suck”… but when is this wishing each other luck thing going to stop? As a Nuggets fan, do you really want the Lakers to have “good luck” tonight against your team? As a Laker fan, do you really want the Nuggets to have “good luck” against your team? Really? We should all hope for a well-officiated team, where both of our teams are allowed to play (within reason, because the Nuggets tend to let their thug flag fly when they’re simply “allowed to play”), and the best team wins… but, at the end of the day, it is my sincerest hope that the Nuggets will lose, so the last thing that I want them to have is good luck.
by G.A.-43 on May 29, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I think everyone here understands that we really don't want the other team to have ANY luck whatsoever
And given that understanding, which I think goes without saying, it’s common courtesy to wish your opponent well. And around here, common courtesy is valued. It’s a sign of respect. It shows you understand that they hope for a win as much as you do, and are as devastated by a loss as you are.
To me, those things are every bit as valuable as a Lakers win. Without the one, the other is pure gluttony, and utterly meaningless.
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I chose none
because I don’t want the Lakers in the finals. Period.
MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.
If you read the second to last sentence, it was a poll directed at Lakers fans... just sayin'...
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So… Kobe and LeBron meet in the Finals. LeBron plays amazing basketball, get his stats, and the Cavs still lose because no one else steps up. How does that settle the debate? The context, the teams they play in, are completely different. That’s a factor that will be used (and it should be used) if the Cavs lose.
It won’t solve anything. People love to argue over the Internet.
Straight from the No-Stat Zone to your computer!
Dunkin' Cheerleaders

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