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Lakers-Nugs Game 4: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

Had Gertrude Stein been a hoops fan, and if she had lived to watch it, Game Four of the Western Conference Finals would have reminded her greatly of Oakland. There was, in last night's game - as she famously observed of her hometown - no there there. Not only did it fail to change either the dynamics of the series or its likely outcome, but it provided no information about either the Lakers or Nuggets that we didn't possess beforehand. It was an epistomologically useless event, a three-hour exercise in advertising and ticket sales that needed to happen only to appease the arithmetic logic that says every best-of-seven series must contain a fourth game.

Thanks to the geniuses at Who Wins, we already knew that NBA teams positioned as were the Lakers last night, up 2-to-1 in a best-of-seven having played the first two games at home, lost Game Four more often than not, but nonetheless went on to win the series almost 90% of the time. In other words, the Lakers' loss last night was both to be expected and probably irrelevant. And exactly how they went about losing was neither, I argue, surprising nor cause for alarm.

If you're reading this, you already know the two determinative factors in the game. One was the Nuggets' huge advantage in free-throw attempts. I'll touch on that briefly below, and you have heard and will continue to hear plenty from my colleagues about it. The other biggie was the Nuggets' offensive rebounding: they collected 39% of their own misses. That stat, while no doubt galling to Laker fans, is not something the Nuggets will be able to repeat at Staples.

The Lakers didn't feel like working on the boards last night. It was an effort issue, and we know it was an effort issue because we have solid baseline knowledge of what kind of rebounding teams both they and the Nuggets are. The Nugs were the 15th best offensive rebounding team in the NBA this year - stone cold mediocre. In the first two rounds of the playoffs, they rebounded only 26% of their misses. Against the Lakers in the regular season, they rebounded only 22% of their misses. This playoff series features the same schemes and same personnel as the regular season, so there's no reason, if the teams are playing with roughly equal verve and energy, Denver's offensive rebounding rate should come anywhere close to 40%. Put the Lakers in front of a friendly crowd and in a game they're motivated to win, and that number will plummet.

Look, winning NBA games on the road is hard. If you're weary and MEHnervated from an epic victory two nights prior, it's all the harder. And if your very talented opponent needs the game more than you do by orders of magnitude, you decide that maybe it's not worth working to get position if it means yet another elbow to your already-sore midsection. Sure, I'd have loved for the Lakers to crank up yet another massive effort last night to put this series on lockdown once and for all, but I wasn't on pins and needles thinking it might happen. Don't know about you, but I've long since stopped waiting for these guys to transform into the relentless killing machines of May 2001.

And you know what? That's OK. It doesn't make this year's Lakers bad people, or a disappointment to our nation's children. It just makes them human.

We've all heard stories about hardscrabble, common-man heroes who held down two jobs for 50 years and never missed a day of work. That's awesome - they're awesome - but most of us aren't like that. Most of us on most days, we go to work and exert ourselves enough to get the job done. On some days, we really crank it up and take names when circumstances call for it. And then there are days when the juice just isn't there. When we're half-assing ourselves through the day and hoping no one important notices. When we're struggling just to survive long enough to get home and flop on the couch with a revitalizing tumbler of Woodford Reserve.

So the Lakers... they were thinking about the couch and the bourbon last night. It's not ideal, but it's kinda the way we're all wired. I'm not going to devote a lot of neural capacity to worrying about it.

The full Game Four numbers are next. Go pour yourself some Woodford over ice, then join me for a look. Gertrude would approve.

Star-divide

Game Four allotted 92 possessions to each of the participating squads. This would be a breakneck pace for Cleveland and Orlando but is a skosh on the pokey side for a game involving the Nuggets and Lakers. That's what happens when you force hardly any turnovers and allow offensive rebounds by the bushel. Your opponent's possessions just... never... end.....

 

TO Rate FTA/FGA FT% EFG% TS% Off Reb Rate Def Reb% PPP
Los Angeles 11% 0.43 69 47 52 23% 61% 1.10
Denver 7% 0.57 76 48 56 39% 77% 1.30

 

Let's talk about those free throws. Officiating is rarely my subject matter of choice, but I know it's on everyone's minds, so let's open up to each other and delve into our feelings.

Yes, 0.57 free throw attempts per FGA is an extraordinarily high ratio. And yes, I shared your displeasure with many of the touch calls that sent Nuggets to the line, over and over, last night. But allow me to point out a few considerations that might help to ease your blood pressure on this topic.

First, as often as the Nugs traipsed to the stripe in Game Four, the Lakers did so even more often in Game Three, posting an FTA/FGA ratio of 0.63. Also, for the series - scroll down to the bottom for the composite numbers through four games - Denver has an FTA rate only slightly higher than L.A.'s. And during the regular season, the Nuggets had the best FTA rate of any team in the league - by a pretty substantial margin, no less. So it's not as if they're excelling at something that's out of character for them.

And for those Laker fans starting to light up torches and sharpen pitchforks over the officiating in Game Four, bear in mind that there's every possibility that the free-throw disparity swings in the other direction when the teams return to Staples. As I intimated when you last heard from me, the nice thing about responding to bad officiating, when it goes against your team, with stoic grace is that when the next game rolls around and your team is the beneficiary of some iffy calls, you don't have to defend or apologize for them.

So yes, I most certainly feel your pain. But there's peace of mind to be gained from thinking of whistles as Acts of God. Sometimes your team's the tornado, sometimes it's the uninsured double wide about to drop-kicked across the plains.

Climbing down from the team level to some individual player numbers.... Danger! Unexploded stat bombs!

 

  • J.R. Smith had a fine game - 24 points on 20 shooting possessions (SPs) - but the way the ABC crew were going on about him, you'd have thought he ripped off some crazy, 80% True Shooting performance. When you take into account his three turnovers, it's clear that his night didn't merit praise of such effusiveness. I'm very OK with Denver trying to win two more games by routing 20% of its offense through him.
  • Luke Walton, now scoreless in the last two games (albeit having used only four SPs), continues to do nothing on offense, but am I crazy or did he actually look decent guarding Carmelo? No one's going to confuse him with Alvin Robertson, and I realize that Melo was hurt, but Luke appeared to hold his own surprisingly well.
  • Mike Breen: I know you have a lot of airtime to fill, but please think twice before saying things such as, in regard to Sasha Vujacic, "He's been cold, but he's the type of shooter who just needs one make to get himself going." (I'm paraphrasing, but he did say something very close to that.) Sasha's at 36% True Shooting for the playoffs and has made more than two FGs only twice in 16 postseason games. Clearly, one made field goal does not get him going. To the contrary: it seduces him into still more off-balance jacks, to the near-violent irritation of every Laker fan watching.
  • This is kind of amazing: in the playoffs so far, Sasha has attempted 81 field goals.... and only two free throws. I suspect he's closing in on some kind of record achievement in the field of free-throw-line aversion.
  • Andrew Bynum (14 points on nine SPs, five rebounds and no turnovers) looks just fine to me. Are we finally over the psychodrama surrounding this kid? Can we be, please? Phil, just give him 32 minutes a game and let's all get on with our lives.
  • Anthony Carter (two whole points!) actually scored for the first time in the series. Everyone, please remain calm. Our nation's leaders are preparing a response to this shocking development.

 

Series numbers through four games, ahoy! And come back again after Game Five. Please... it's never the same without you.

 

Poss./G TO% FTA/FGA FT% EFG% TS% Off Reb% Def Reb% PPP
Denver 94 12 0.47 76 48 55 31 71 1.13
L.A. 94 15 0.43 73 48 54 29 69 1.09

 

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Comments

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"Sasha has attempted 81 field goals.... and only two free throws."

And wasn’t one of them a technical foul shot? Which he missed?

And what do you make of George Karl’s, “If you watch the game without looking at the scoreboard, we look like the better team?” Is there any statistical merit to this?

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 26, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah Karl is right with that comment.

Look at the series numbers, the nugs are playing better than our Lakers at this point. I mentioned it yesterday, but they’ve been controlling the flow of the games, the tempo, everything. Except for a couple of exceptional quarters by Kobe, we’d be swept…

I’m a nay sayer, so sorry if I offend, but I think the Lakers are done. I’m pretty certain that Melo won’t have another poor game after the last two, and the scrub brigade of Nene, Martin, and the “birdman” will again look like super heroes next to our lackluster rebounding and defensive shifts. Add in Smith with some confidence and Billup’s uncannily easy ability to get into the paint and I’ve got a very worried feeling.

Again, just a nay sayer here, it’s still 2-2 and we’ve got Kobe… I sure hope someone besides Pau shows up!

by 99bc99 on May 26, 2009 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Gils, if one just looks at the aggregate series numbers – the bottom table in the post – without context, then yes, there’s support for the proposition that on the whole, Denver has played better. The more interesting question to me is whether there’s anything predictive in that notion. I tend to think that there isn’t – in part because we’re talking about only four games’ worth of data, relative to the 82-game season that tells us that the Lakers are the better team, and in part because I believe that the Lakers were a bit checked out in Game Four, and therefore I discount the Game Four numbers a bit.

Once I mentally net out these various effects, I return to where I was at the beginning of this series, believing that because these two teams are so evenly matched, give the edge to the team with the home court advantage.

by DexterFishmore on May 26, 2009 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

I give the edge to the team whose bench can make a &$%#@$% shot!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, need my meds.

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on May 26, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Halftime

Cavs end the half on a 23-7 scramble…
They’re up 58-50 and LeBron only had to score 17…
Mo has 12…
Gibson hit two 3s…
Nobody has more than 2 fouls…

MAYBE THERE’S HOPE YET!

by WaveOcean on May 26, 2009 6:47 PM PDT reply actions  

cavs looking great so far, hope they can keep it up. nice to see mo and gibson and others step up. lebron needs as much help as he can get to keep the magic at bay.

by kumquatsrus on May 26, 2009 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well if the league wants the Cavs in the finals..............the sure aren't showing it.

No Cavs bias in the reffing so far. Getting scary now.

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on May 26, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm, interesting

…and your point would be?

by G.A.-43 on May 26, 2009 8:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

somebody answer this...

Is it time to accept that the Lakers of these playoffs are not the same team that won 65 games in the regular season? Is time to acknowledge that we are not as good as we were earlier in the season?

by chaucer on May 26, 2009 7:20 PM PDT reply actions  

That time will exist only after they lose two in a row

Until that happens, this is exactly the Laker team from the regular season. As it turns out, they don’t play teams of Denver’s quality all the time during the regular season, so they can beat lesser teams without 100% effort.

by C.A. Clark on May 26, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Here is my answer.

The only difference I see is in the shooting percentage of our bench. If our bench shoots around 45% so far in these playoffs we are killing it. Period. All we heard all year long was that the strength of our team was DEPTH. Well if your bench can’t make a shot, you have no depth. Other than that I don’t really see much of a difference.

Let’s be honest they’re all shooting like crap. Yeah defenses are better, but they’re just missing everything. Add Fisher in there and it gets much worse. It seems simple, but sometimes that is the right answer.

As an example the bench is shooting 34.35% in the entire playoffs (16 games). That’s pathetic. They averaged 44.2% in the regular season. Given the bench takes 18.6 shots per game (6.8 from three point range) they are down 4.3 points per game. Think we could use those extra points? Again this doesn’t even count Fisher.

For the record I didn’t use Bynum or Odom as part of the bench as they have interchanged starting roles. My bench was: Vujacic, Farmar, Brown, Mbenga, Powell, and Walton.

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on May 26, 2009 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

You've got to be kidding me....

Lebron gets the call…………but Howard doesn’t???

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on May 26, 2009 8:21 PM PDT reply actions  

actually No...........I am rooting for Cleveland. I have finals tickets and I want to see that matchup bad.

Kinda makes you wonder how bad that call really was huh?

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on May 26, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

Cavs lose.. Wow I really thought they were going to get this one

by intuitive on May 26, 2009 8:50 PM PDT reply actions  

This is hopeless

The Cavs can’t play a team that survives by throwing up a lot of threes and hitting them.
The Cavs can’t play a series where every player can hit a jump shot any time.
The Cavs can’t play a game based on luck.

by WaveOcean on May 26, 2009 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

i didn’t…i’m glad the magic won.

by chaucer on May 26, 2009 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

The thin line of winning and losing

Cav’s could already be swept
The could also be up 3-1

Similar in the Lakers series, Lakers could be up 3-1 or even swept already

Nick Adenhart - 1986 - 2009 R.I.P.

by swiss mcgee on May 26, 2009 9:21 PM PDT reply actions  

yeah, really tough loss, that loose ball delonte touched after that magic miss heading out of bounds with the cavs up 1 with 6 seconds left cost them the game at the end. turnovers and missed fts didn’t help though toward the end. don’t give up hope yet. cavs could be the 9th team to win a series down with a 3-1 deficit. just gotta try to win gm5 at home and get dwight teed up for a suspension on gm6 would help alot, lol.

by kumquatsrus on May 26, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

We need to go back to running our triangle offense. In the games we’ve lost it hasn’t been there.

by intuitive on May 26, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions  

Regular season

means absolutely nothing

when the playoffs begins, your record is 0-0

this is why the spurs were a championship team

they always had this attitude about themselves (i hate the spurs by the way)

you cant say the lakers are a better team just becuase they won sixty something games

when theyre apparently getting manhandled to the boards and in the paint

by andrew33 on May 26, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions  

that said (not a lakers fan)

lakers should never play luke again

and should give pau alot more touches and shots

NOT BYNUM

paus an awesome scorer and passer

run your offense through pau not kobe

kobe can carry the team at the end of the game

by andrew33 on May 26, 2009 11:11 PM PDT reply actions  

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