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Lakers-Nugs Game 1: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

You might not realize this about me, but I'm a fast learner. I've got a couple junior-high "gifted and talented" classes on my resume, plus I once needed only an afternoon to solve one whole side of a Rubik's Cube, plus parts of another. What can I say? It's cortical skills like mine that are keeping America great and making her economy better than it's ever been ever.

So it should come as little surprise to anyone that only four quarters into the Western Conference Finals, I've got the Denver Nuggets' offseason all figured out. Their road to greatness has revealed itself to me, and I'm going to share it with you here, free of charge. No need to thank me, Mark Warkentien. Just keep me in mind next year when you're collecting your second straight NBA Executive of the Year Award.

Your new master plan goes like this:

 

  1. Find a guard who isn't terrible to play alongside Chauncey Billups.
  2. ??????
  3. PROFIT.

 

Assuming use of a conventional lineup, there are 96 minutes of playing time per game to be divvied up among a team's guards. In last night's Game One, Billups used 41 of those minutes and played splendidly, as he always seems to do against the Lakers. The remaining 55 minutes were sopped up by the unholy trio of J.R. Smith, Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones, who befouled Staples Center with the following aggregate line:

 

FGM-FGA FTM-FTA Points Turnovers Fouls
2-14 3-8 9 7 10

 

Collectively, these guys burned 23 possessions to generate nine points, and threw in eight defensive fouls for good measure. It's a testament to how well the Nuggies played at the other four positions that they managed to absorb this disaster and still lose by only two. I kinda doubt their teammates will be inviting Messrs. Smith, Carter and Jones to join them at the Golden Gopher Wednesday night.

The full Game One numbers, almost as much fun as the premiere episode of Glee, await after the jump....

Star-divide

There were 96 possessions per team tonight. During the regular season, the Nuggets averaged 97.0 possessions per game, the Lakers 96.9. The four previous games between these teams this year averaged 97 possessions per. I sense a theme.

TO Rate FTA/FGA FT% EFG% TS% Off Reb Rate Def Reb Rate PPP
Denver 16% 0.47 66 54 58 23% 62% 1.07
L.A. 17% 0.27 83 47 52 38% 77% 1.09

You guys should be proud of me, as it took me only a dozen or so posts to figure out how to cram everything into a table. Told you I was a fast learner! Anyone unclear on the column headings should click here.

Two prominent trends from the regular-season series carried over into Game One. The first concerns the Lakers' shooting against Denver: it continues to be bad. Last night, moreover, it was bad in a weird and interesting way, in that L.A. managed to shoot worse on two-point FGAs (40%) than on three-point FGAs (44%). This, as you might imagine, is highly unusual and doesn't speak well of the ability of the Laker frontline to get clean looks against Denver's fly-swatting maestros.

The other recurring trend involves the Lakers' rebounding, which continues to be phenomenal. In all five games against the Nuggets this year, the Lakers have rebounded at least a third of their own misses; in none of the five games has Denver done the same. Pau Gasol didn't treat us to a classic Gasollian scoring performance, but those 14 boards of his (including six offensive) were crucial to the victory.

The free-throw numbers from Game One were skewed in countervailing directions. The Nugs got to the line far more frequently than did the Lakers, but they missed more than one out of every three attempts. Neither team's fans should be too excited or concerned in this regard, as the stats are likely to regress to more reasonable levels in coming games. On the one hand, the Lakers will definitely get more calls. On the other hand, Billups and Smith won't combine to miss seven FTAs again.

A few additional statlets for your off-day consideration:

 

  • Speaking of things that won't continue, how about Carmelo Anthony and his 83% True Shooting? On 23 shooting possessions, no less, and with only three turnovers. Just magnificent. Denver fans won't want to hear this, but their team wasted what's likely to be Melo's best game of the series.
  • Sasha Vujacic is now at 36% True Shooting for the playoffs, and I'm really not sure why he's still getting 15 minutes of run each game.  FREE ADAM MORRISON.*
  • Kobe could be on the verge of a monstrous series. 59% True Shooting on a third of the Lakers' possessions, and these weren't those crazy difficult, Battier's-hand-in-your-face shots either. He was finding lanes, making space for clear looks and getting to the stripe. His line tonight wasn't flukey.
  • Also: only one Mamba turnover. To go along with four assists and six rebounds (three offensive). Ridiculous. Enough to justify two whole bullet-points for himself.

(* = I do not actually wish to free Adam Morrison.)

 

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Comments

Display:

Insightful AND Hilarious

16...15...14...13...12...11...10...9...8...
Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on May 20, 2009 1:09 PM PDT reply actions  

Kobe's TS%

Usually, True Shooting Percentage is calculated using a statistical estimate of what percentage of a player’s free throws come from and-1 and thre-point attempts, using league-wide historical data. As we have Kobe’s actual numbers from last night’s game, such an estimate is not necessary, allowing us to calculate his actual TS% more accurately.

If I’ve done my math right, that means he actually had a TS% of 59.7% last night, which rounds up to 60%. Stellar night for him — even better when you consider he actually missed a few gimmes that he’ll likely make in the future. That’s how ill-equipped Denver is to deal with him.

16...15...14...13...12...11...10...9...8...
Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on May 20, 2009 1:36 PM PDT reply actions  

Yep, that's correct.

When you’re tracking play-by-play data, you can move away from the baseline TS formula and get more precise. That’s what I’m doing when I refer to “shooting possessions.” For instance, last night Kobe had 40 points on 33 SPs, and Carmelo had 39 points on 23 SPs. When I refer directly to True Shooting, I always use the formula estimate, just to maintain consistency with how the stat is being calculated by other writers.

Off-topic: not sure if you heard, but we got a nice mention on The Basketball Jones today.

by DexterFishmore on May 20, 2009 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, it probably makes sense to stick with the same formula, because we really have no frame of reference for actual TS%. Still, both numbers show how easy Kobe has it against Denver, especially considering he missed a couple gimme layups last night.

I did not hear that. Checking it out now. Over at BDL, Skeets usually does a “Net Reaction” post after games, where he quotes various blogs and news outlets on the previous day’s games. We were the lead quote on that today.

16...15...14...13...12...11...10...9...8...
Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on May 20, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I love Anthony Carter and Dahntay Jones.

Kobe should have a huge series.

The Lakers are 11-1 against the Nuggets in the past 2 years.

by wondahbap on May 20, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I understand wanting JR Smith to come off of the bench as a spark plug

But is Dahntay Jones really the best that they can do for a starting guard? And to think that the best part of his game is defense?!? I’m already starting to get Smush flashbacks. Please, somebody make them stop…

by Sideout11 on May 20, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

But starting Smith

just means Kobe will score on him and possibly put him in foul trouble. Plus, Kobe may defend him, and then what? They need his points.

Dahntay isn’t a scorer anyway, so no matter who defends him, you aren’t losing anything offensively, and defensively, the 3-headed monster of Jones/Carter,Smith matters not.

If they try Kenyon, we’ll have flashbacks of Kobe eating Ron Artest up, and then LO will have an easy time.

The Nuggets regarding Kobe:
 

The Lakers are 11-1 against the Nuggets in the past 2 years.

by wondahbap on May 20, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

dexter,

Great job. I’m enjoying your posts more and more.

You, Josh, and Timbo remind me (unknowingly) everyday why I just stick to links.

The Lakers are 11-1 against the Nuggets in the past 2 years.

by wondahbap on May 20, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions  

Yep

Thanks for making this a unique and valuable site!

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 20, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

DexterFishmore ...

pslakerfan mentioned these “tempo free boxscores” and I added a link to it over on Pickaxe … great stuff here. I like it!

Pickaxe & Roll.com: 5,280 reasons to be a Nuggets fan

by Nate Timmons on May 20, 2009 3:31 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks Dex

for showing me in very plain and obvious terms how god-awful our trio of 2s was last night. And here I was pissed enough about AC’s turnover near the end. JR has to come alive because, like you said, Melo isn’t going to continue to score over 80% of the time he attempts to. He was insane last night …. and they still fricken lost.

MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.

by Bob in Boulder on May 20, 2009 3:51 PM PDT reply actions  

PS:

What movie or show is the Profit thing from? I vaguely remember it …

MHH: Shagging Dater one contributor at a time.

by Bob in Boulder on May 20, 2009 3:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Funny but true

Game 1 could of been better by the Lakers as a whole but Lakers still have clear advantages over Denver. Denver isn’t gonna get any taller anytime this series to correct their rebounding issues and unfortunatly Battier isn’t up for grabs to help Denver out with Kobe and most importantly Denver has more players who the Lakers can double team off of and ignore because they aren’ offensive threats so there goes Denvers season.

by BrittneyM on May 20, 2009 4:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Got this off of Pick Axe and Roll

Lakers are 112-0 when Kobe dunks and is fouled at the same time. So if you see Kobe dunk and is fouled, your team is in serious trouble.

by intuitive on May 20, 2009 6:30 PM PDT reply actions  

G.A.T.E.!!

16...15...14...13...12...11...10...9...8...
Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on May 20, 2009 11:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Let it be known that I...

…called out this might be a career defining series for Kobe. I’ll dig up the comment I made after the series is over if I’m right :)

by Justin N. on May 21, 2009 12:05 AM PDT reply actions  

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