Lakers-Rox Game 4: Tempo-Free Boxscore Breakdown

by DexterFishmore on May 10, 2009 11:43 PM PDT Comment 18 comments

Anyone have a calculator they're not using?

There are times when numbers fail us. Occasions when the usefulness of statistics is overwhelmed by the very event that produced them. Sometimes, events take such a toll on the human spirit that only direct, first-person observation can do justice to the horror, and any attempt to quantify risks trivializing what came to pass.

On a completely unrelated note, how about the ol' purple and gold today!

Look, I dutifully ran the Game Four numbers through my spreadsheets because that's my raison d'etre in these parts, and here at SS&R we bring our lunchpails to work every day. Unlike, ahem, some basketball teams who shall remain nameless. (*cough* Lakers! *cough*) But to be honest, the stats from today's game are less illuminating than was the experience of watching pretty much any two-minute stretch of play from the first three quarters. As my colleagues have elsewhere described in detail, the performance by the Lakers in Game Four amounted to a wholesale organizational failure that merits every disparaging adjective we can think of.

But please, do join me after the jump in appraising the wreckage from angles numerical. I had to churn through this mess, so it's only fair that I drag you down with me....

Before I dive into the usual run of tempo-adjusted numbers, let me blow your mind with this: of the Lakers' 76 field goal attempts today, a mere 12 were launched from within the paint. Only 16%. That would be a horrifically small percentage even if the opposing team had - oh, I don't know - a 7'6" shotblocking menace guarding the rim. Against a diminished Rockets' front line that runs about 6'8" on average, it's downright reprehensible, an abject failure of game-planning and execution.

If you need to step away to kick some furniture right now, I completely understand. Go ahead - I'll wait.

. . . . .

Feel better? Me neither, but on to the usual business anyway. There were 86 possessions per team tonight, the fewest of any game between the Lakers and Rockets this season, no doubt because there wasn't much reason for the losing team to bother fouling intentionally at the end. Those 86 possessions blessed us with the following:

Turnover rate: Lakers - 13%, Rockets - 13%.
FTA/FGA: Lakers - 0.24, Rockets - 0.25.
Free throw shooting: Lakers - 61%, Rockets - 85%.
Effective field goal percentage: Lakers - 50%, Rockets - 51%.
True shooting percentage: Lakers - 52%, Rockets - 56%.
Offensive rebounding rate: Lakers - 20%, Rockets - 30%.
Defensive rebounding rate: Lakers - 70%, Rockets - 80%.
Points per possession: Lakers - 1.01, Rockets - 1.15.

Ha! Nice try, numbers, but you're not fooling anyone. We all know this pig got a generous slathering of lipstick in the fourth, by which point the outcome had long been fait accompli. Would that I'd printed out the third-quarter boxscore, which would have better captured the unspeakable fug.

I can tell you that after three quarters, the Lakers were averaging 0.84 points per possession, to the Rockets' 1.30. Had that kept up for the 22 possessions actually played in the fourth, the final score would have been Rockets - 112, Lakers - 72.

Let that extrapolation sink in for a moment. It's really the best way I can attempt to quantify what we saw today.

A couple player-level stat bombs to help round out the misery:

As we all basically knew it would at some point, Ron Artest's offensive game fell apart today, as he scored only eight points in 44 minutes on 19 shooting possessions. What's amazing - in the sense of inspiring incredulity, as opposed to the Kanye/Young Jeezy sense of the word - is that Houston was nonetheless +16 with Ron in the game. When Ron's in Wildly Inaccurate Gunner mode, the Lakers should be - need to be - destroying this team. That Houston put L.A. 16 points in the rearview mirror with Artest burning possessions left and right is unfathomable to me.
I know I'm piling on with this one, but the Derek Fisher Problem is growing in magnitude and consequence. He scored two points and dished zero dimes, while displaying the usual defensive inadequacies, in 20 minutes played today, during which the Lakers were -26. It was one thing to tolerate Fish's shortcomings when Jordan Farmar couldn't pull himself together and Shannon Brown was a question mark, but those two are playing some very solid ball right now, to the point where you could make the case that Fish has become our third-best option at PG. In discussing Farmar after Game Three, Phil Jackson made the point that "minutes are not something that are given to you.... they're something that you earn." I wonder whether that standard applies to everyone on the team, or just the young guys.

Finally, here are the composite series numbers to date. There will be at least two more games' worth of data to add to this, starting Tuesday with Game Five. Wheee.

Average possessions per game: 91.
Turnover rate: Lakers - 11%, Rockets - 18%.
FTA/FGA: Lakers - 0.29, Rockets - 0.33.
Free throw shooting: Lakers - 70%, Rockets - 79%.
Effective field goal percentage: Lakers - 50%, Rockets - 50%.
True shooting percentage: Lakers - 53%, Rockets - 55%.
Offensive rebounding rate: Lakers - 28%, Rockets - 32%.
Defensive rebounding rate: Lakers - 68%, Rockets - 72%.
Points per possession: Lakers - 1.09, Rockets - 1.07.

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Ai yai yai

As I was reading those stats, they seemed eerily similar to the ones from Game 3, just with the teams reversed. Of course, the Rockets didn’t get blown out of the water in that one, so clearly the 4th made a huge difference. i’m glad that you posted at least the ppp for the first three quarters, because that’s the real who-dun-it from this game.

by Sideout11 on May 10, 2009 11:56 PM PDT reply actions

I may be nitpicking but...

isn’t home court bias supposed to be minimal during the playoffs?

I mean yes they probably still would have lost but wow. Lowry’s “and 1” against sasha…charge. odom’s “charge” against battier….block. Hometown clock on the end of 3rd quarter oop, no way brooks can catch it…pump the shot and put it up in .7. Bynum shows on a screen, an actually good show for once has feet planted and brooks runs into him and flys backwards…block on bynum, nope that’s a charge my friends!

And the last part…and probably the biggest. Hayes is beating up Gasol on the block and they aren’t calling anything because they are saying, oh he’s 6’6 against a 7’0 just let them play. He’s fouling pau like crazy and the stupid announcers are going on and on about how he’s an amazing low post defender. If amazing low post defender = fouling machine, then yes…hayes is an amazing low post defender.

by rshinsec on May 11, 2009 6:59 AM PDT reply actions

Man...

it’s almost like you understand how every defender in the league treats Yao and gets away with it.

"I am from one of the top 15 cities in the world. Buffalo, New York." - TrentEdwardsHoF2018

by Artest4Prez on May 11, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

I dont reacall the Bynum play, but the rest are uncomplainable

No such thing as a hometown clock, an NBA official runs the clock, and the officials on the court have their own clocks. Lowry was fouled, its not his fault he is strong enough to have it not affect him. Shane was in position before Lamar left his feet, thats a charge through and through. If shane got there after lamar left his feet then its a block, but that wasnt the case.

The officiating was consistent yesterday and neither team has any reason to complain.

And yeah, Hayes guarding Pau = everyone guarding Yao. Get used to it.

Game 1 100-92 Rockets
Game 2 111-98 lakers
Game 3 108-94 lakers
Game 4 99-87 Rockets (kind of)

Series tied 2-2

by TexasHoosier on May 11, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions

From the 2008-2009 NBA Rule Book

A defensive player is not permitted to move into the path of an offensive player once he
has started his upward motion with the ball to attempt a field goal or pass.

So he actually had to be set before Lamar started his upward motion with the ball. I don’t have the video, but that would the criteria, not if he was in position before Lamar left his feet.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 11, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

The charge is at the 1:10 mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7Ua_ya2WM4

Its a tough call but to me it looks like Shane is there in time.

Game 1 100-92 Rockets
Game 2 111-98 lakers
Game 3 108-94 lakers
Game 4 99-87 Rockets (kind of)

Series tied 2-2

by TexasHoosier on May 11, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions

At 1:25 on the replay Odom has begun his shooting motion

If you pause there, then watch Shane’s feet, then unpause, you will see Shane’s feet still moving.

The only point of contention would be when exactly did he “start his upward motion with the ball”. But if you agree it’s at 1:25, Shane is not set.

In any case, it’s a much closer play by the rule book than it is when Lamar leaves his feet.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 11, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions

A better look is to pause at 1:34

Then un-pause, and you’ll see Shane was not set.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 11, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions

All good points

but if you look at the full speed replays it appears that Shane is set. The refs dont get to pause the play like we do. They must call it right when they see, as they see it. Maybe he missed it, but there have been much worse calls in this series than this one.

Game 1 100-92 Rockets
Game 2 111-98 lakers
Game 3 108-94 lakers
Game 4 99-87 Rockets (kind of)

Series tied 2-2

by TexasHoosier on May 11, 2009 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions

So when the refs miss a call that favors Houston its because theyre human

but when they miss a call that favors LA its because Stern’s playing favoritism towards the Lakers. LOL

by intuitive on May 11, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions

To some rockets fans maybe...

but ive never said anything about a conspiracy theory. I thought that was a good call looking at it in real time. If that call was made with the roles reversed i still would think it was good. I know its the rule, but the “started his upward motion” part of that rule is really vague from an athleticism standpoint because people naturally bob up and down with each step and thus its difficult to tell when the actual upward motion of a shot/pass begins.

Game 1 100-92 Rockets
Game 2 111-98 lakers
Game 3 108-94 lakers
Game 4 99-87 Rockets (kind of)

Series tied 2-2

by TexasHoosier on May 11, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Sure, those are all valid points

I wasn’t arguing them.

I was only disputing:

Shane was in position before Lamar left his feet, thats a charge through and through.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 11, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions

And i didnt know the "upward motion" rule

i thought the rule was leaving the feet. I still think its a charge though.

Game 1 100-92 Rockets
Game 2 111-98 lakers
Game 3 108-94 lakers
Game 4 99-87 Rockets (kind of)

Series tied 2-2

by TexasHoosier on May 11, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions

That cool, I don't really care too much if this particular play is a charge or not

I’m more concerned about spreading the word about the language of the rule, which is there to prevent defenders from sliding under jumping players, because you can sometimes get under where they are going to land before they leave their feet and still be putting guys in jeopardy.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on May 11, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I have a hunch their attention will be, ummm, focused for the next tilt.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on May 11, 2009 7:54 AM PDT reply actions