Playoff Rotations
by WildYams on Apr 22, 2009 12:26 PM PDT
36 comments
Something really jumped out at me last night and I was glad to see Phil Jackson voluntarily addressed it afterwards:
"I think it was my fault," he said in a rare mea culpa. "Substitution probably hurt us a little bit in the course of the game, and I think that I tried to play too many players at that time in the game to get us going, which created a little bit of hesitancy."
With that in mind, let's discuss the playoff rotations.
Point Guard
No offense to Jordan Farmar, but at this point in the season the bench should be shortened to 8-9 guys max, because the time to showcase what you got and audition for your role is over. Farmar has not produced for a while now, while Shannon Brown has been stepping up consistently for the last few weeks with all the playing time he's got. Farmar's role at this point should be to keep himself ready in case there is some foul trouble or an injury, but otherwise we shouldn't be seeing him in the games unless it's a blowout.
There are 48 minutes of playing time to be allocated to this position, and there is no reason they shouldn't all be going to Derek Fisher and Shannon Brown. Fish should probably be getting the bulk of those minutes, say 28-30, with Brown getting the rest (18-20). You're not going to find any successful team at this time of year that has a three man rotation for one position.
Shooting Guard
Obviously Adam Morrison is out here, and all the minutes should be going to Kobe Bryant and Sasha Vujacic. Phil's been pretty on point with the rotation here, with Kobe getting 40 minutes in Game 1 and 38 in Game 2; and Sasha getting 12 in Game 1 and 15 in Game 2. However, Phil shouldn't be afraid to play Kobe more than 40 minutes per game if need be. After all, the best way to get Kobe some rest is by sweeping the opponent, rather than by sitting him for a few extra minutes in a game where the opposition is rallying from a deficit. Ideally Kobe should be playing 38-42 minutes a game with Sasha only picking up the extra 6-10 minutes. There's just no real reason for Sasha to be getting more unless it's a blowout, and even then those extra minutes should come in garbage time in the 4th quarter, not when the Lakers are up 20 in the first half.
Small Forward
There's really only two true small forwards on the team, so obviously all the minutes here should be split between Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton. Luke has been playing well lately, but Trevor has been playing great, and as such Trevor should be getting the large majority of the minutes. With the way Trevor is playing he should be getting 34-38 minutes a game, with Luke filling in for the remaining 10-14. So far neither one is getting enough playing time, IMO. Trevor only played 34 minutes in Game 1 and only 32 minutes last night; while Luke has only played in 11 minutes in each game.
Additionally, outside of garbage time at the end of a blowout game, there's really no reason for both Luke and Sasha to be on the floor at the same time together, especially if Kobe and Trevor play the number of minutes that they should be. Personally I don't see a reason for why Phil can't keep Trevor in while Sasha is playing, and to keep Kobe in while Luke is in the game. If Phil can do that, then it ensures that at worst the lineup looks like this:
Bynum/Gasol - C; Gasol/Odom - PF; Luke - SF; Kobe - SG; Fisher/Brown - PG
or
Bynum/Gasol - C; Gasol/Odom - PF; Trevor - SF; Sasha - SG; Fisher/Brown - PG
Imagine seeing a Laker game whether either of those two lineups are the absolute worst collection of players you ever see on the floor together! I'd love to hear an argument for why that shouldn't be the case
Power Forward
This position and center are easy to call, and Phil is already basically perfect with his rotations for both frontcourt spots. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom should get all the minutes here, with Josh Powell on hand in case of foul trouble, or for mop up duty in garbage time at the end of a blowout win. Gasol also splits time with Andrew Bynum at center, and between those two and Odom each player should be getting somewhere between 30-40 minutes each game, with Gasol getting the most of the three.
Center
As mentioned above, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol should get all the minutes here. With DJ Mbenga not being active for these games, the Lakers don't really have a third center, although even if DJ was on the roster, he wouldn't be expected to see any non-garbage time minutes.
The only thing to really worry about or manage here is what to do if there is foul trouble. If there is foul trouble for Gasol, Bynum or Odom, then the other two players should be expected to play more minutes for that game. Gasol should be reasonably expected to be able to play 42 minutes if needed, while Odom and Bynum should both be able to go up to 38 apiece if one of the other three has their minutes shortened due to foul trouble. If two or more of these players is limited with foul trouble, only then should Josh Powell be brought in.
Summation
The Lakers have a lot of depth, and have one of the best benches in the league. I saw a quote the other day saying the Lakers went 13 players deep, and there is some truth to that, but the reality is that in the playoffs the best teams lean on their top players more than they do in the regular season. All that depth has hopefully helped the Lakers get through the grueling 82 regular season games with their most important players not being worn down too much; but the reason for that is so that those top players can now play a lot of minutes and carry the team without the 9, 10, 11 and 12th men on the bench being expected to do much more than cheer a lot and keep ready in case of an injury or excessive foul trouble for the players ahead of them.
As good as the Lakers' depth is, their real strength lies in all the talent at the top of their rotation, not the relatively good amount of talent at the bottom of it. The Lakers have seven players who should be getting the bulk of the minutes right now (Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Ariza, Fisher and Brown) and they have two players who should be getting some spot minutes (Luke & Sasha), but that should be it. Farmar, Morrison and Powell should mainly be there to support their teammates and be ready in case they're needed, but it's time to officially shorten the rotation.
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Great insights
Regarding the point guard position, it’s unfortunate, but your point that no successful team has a 3-player rotation for a single rotation, at this point, is a very good one.
This is especially good:
After all, the best way to get Kobe some rest is by sweeping the opponent, rather than by sitting him for a few extra minutes in a game where the opposition is rallying from a deficit.
I hated that Phil put Kobe on the bench for a stretch in the middle of the fourth quarter yesterday, while the Jazz were only up 10, and our play wasn’t encouraging. We survived it, but it reminded me of the first game against Miami this year, a loss, when Phil kept Kobe out until the 5-minute mark of the 4th quarter. The whole time, I was screaming, “Put Kobe back in!!!”
The one exception I would give for the Kobe/Machine situation is if the Machine really is being the Machine. If he’s hitting shots in his early minutes, give him more burn — perhaps at point, or perhaps by putting Kobe at the small forward position — because when Machine is on, those threes can really kill a team.
It’s very strange, because usually Phil is known for really shortening his rotation in the Playoffs — more so even than your average playoff coach. What the hell is going on with him this year?
It could be the fact that the entire lineup changed so late in the season, and he’s still trying to do some tinkering. He may need to give up on that tinkering and stick to the more obvious.
Strength & Honor
I do agree, re: Machine
Really if any sub comes in and just goes hog wild then you don’t need to take them out just to make sure the starter plays a lot of minutes. I’m not even that concerned about someone like Sasha getting 15-20 minutes, it’s more about suddenly seeing Luke, Sasha and Farmar on the floor together, like we did for four minutes last night. Those guys started the 2nd quarter together along with Odom & Bynum, and in that time the Laker lead went from 12 to 7. Now, that’s not a disaster or anything, it’s just a question of whether that was really necessary or not.
I really don’t see any reason for why Farmar should be in the games at all right now, unless Phil decides he doesn’t want to play Shannon Brown at all (which seems highly unlikely). Two players at any one spot is enough, and when you go beyond that you’re risking breaking up any rhythm any of those players could develop. But considering how well Trevor and Kobe are playing, there’s really no reason to see Sasha and Luke out there together, unless it’s for a minute or two. With the way that UPS is playing right now, the Lakers really have 7 guys who are playing like legit starters for this or any other team. Give those guys almost all of the minutes, mixing Luke and Sasha in separately a bit around the end of the 1st/start of the 2nd and the end of the 3rd/start of the 4th, but that’s it.
There’s plenty of time to rest everyone in between each series. Let the players earn their pay during the games.
Where would you suggest Kobe get his rest?
Because I like this way (Kobe starting the 4th until the 8 minute mark, then back in at the 5) as opposed to the bench starting the 4th and Kobe coming in at around 7 or 8 minutes left.
by Gils_Keloids on Apr 22, 2009 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Two thoughts
One, I kinda prefer him getting rest to start the 4th, because then he finishes the game with a chance to get in rhythm. Starting the 4th, then resting, then coming back in, could leave even Kobe a bit out of rhythm to end the game.
Two, I’m not sure that this is even about Kobe, so much as it is about the overall rotation being shortened. In the regular season, Phil essentially had a 9-player rotation; to start the 2nd and 4th, he’d bring 4 starters out, and play 4 bench players with one starter (usually Gasol). We’re talking about shortening the rotation to 7, and I think that’s a good idea. So it’s not so much about when to rest Kobe, it’s about who’s on the floor when Kobe is resting. I’d rather it not be the whole Bench + 1 approach. I’d prefer it be more of a mix.
For example, start the 4th with Gasol, Ariza, and Odom, playing with Machine and UPS. Then, when Kobe comes back on, bring Bynum with him, sit Odom down, and send either UPS or Ariza to the bench (probably depending on who’s playing better).
Or something similar. The basic idea is, instead of a starting team and an almost completely different starting team, I want to see a starting team, and a mixed team. I never want less than two starters out there, and most of the time, three. Rotate them in and out so that none of them gets gassed, but no more Bench Mod + 1. Not for the Playoffs.
Like WildYams said, I really don’t want to see Walton and Vujacic out there at the same time, with only Gasol or Bynum as the only starter. We need one or two other players who can bring stability and confidence, create shots for themselves and teammates, run the offense, etc.
Strength & Honor
Yes there has to be a better mix of starters and bench players
But the point I was making is that I always hear a lot of fans clamoring for Kobe to be put back in the game, but not realizing that he man has to rest some time. And there really isn’t a good time to rest Kobe, you have to compromise.
You’ve made your preference known that you like him coming in at the 8 min mark to finish the 4th. I like to see Kobe to start the 4th, so that the defense doesn’t feel like this is the time they can catch up, and the little break from the 8 min to 5 min mark gives him a chance to see what’s working or not, kind of let him spin his wheels in his mind in case he’s overheating by then, and come in and finish off the opponent.
by Gils_Keloids on Apr 22, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Good points
Could be advantages either way. Phil does like to start quarters well, and there could certainly be a psychological advantage to that.
Strength & Honor
95% in agreement
No arguments from me about Farmar’s minutes going down to zero for the playoffs. His time on the court has almost been detrimental. I feel for the guy, but now is not the time to be worrying about his confidence.
Regarding Sasha’s minutes, I would like to see him stay in the 10-15 minute range. I don’t think Sasha can be as effective as we want him to be on 5-10 minutes a game, and unlike Farmar, I think we need Sasha to contribute to be a stronger team. I don’t think he should be taking minutes away from Kobe (that is ludicrous), but I like the rotation to include a small period of time with Sasha at the 2 and Kobe at the 3. That was our crunch time lineup last year, and it was pretty effective. Obviously Sasha is giving us a lot less than last year, and Ariza gives us a lot more at the 3 than Luke or Vlade did last year, but it is still a lineup that can be pretty effective.
Agreed
As a shooter, Sasha needs PT to keep his stroke alive (or find it in the first place). And we really need his outside shot.
Strength & Honor
Everyone seems to agree..
Farmar should not be given that much playing time because the championship is too important. Maybe it’s just me but when Farmar and Sasha bring the ball down I get so nervous. I actually think that if not Fisher then S. Brown should bring the ball down. As far as playing time I think that regardless Sasha should not be given PG minutes. He is just at best a spot of shooter and a feisty defender. Traditionally Phil Jackson has never used the prototypical PG and I think that S. Brown fits the mold of what Phil likes. One thing that I noticed that I really like to see is how Phil subs in Odom for Bynum. That gives so many nightmares for opposing teams.
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Apr 22, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions
Farmar and Sasha
Good points about their ball handling. The reason it makes you nervous (and me too) is because they both do the same thing — frenetic, break-neck pace, only partially under control, that really takes us out of our offense, rushes everything, and forces us into worse and worse shots. Farmar just likes speed, but doesn’t have the control; Sasha thinks he’s more of a PG than he is, with better ball handling and passing skills than he actually has.
Strength & Honor
The one who makes me nervous when he carries the ball downcourt is Odom...
That’s just something bad waiting to happen.
Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...
Historically I would agree
but his ball-handling and decision-making (outside of the occasional over zealous pass) has drastically improved this year. Very few, if any power forwards, can pressure the ball well. The Lakers know this and utilize Odom to beat a press because, even if his ball-handling skills are just average, the chances of his defender stealing the ball are slim to none.
Of course, when he thinks he’s a point guard and decides to keep going and throw up a wild layup with 15 left on the shot clock, then I just want to rip my hair out.
I just about fainted
Last night when Odom attempted that deep three with about 15 seconds left on the shot clock after the Jazz had cut it to 106-109. Thankfully Trevor collected the offensive board off that miss. But yes, other than occasionally doing something insane like that, Odom’s decision making has been light years ahead of where it has been in years past.
It's true. The offensive rebound allowed us to forgive and forget quickly.
But it was a truly atrocious decision at a crucial juncture in the game. I don’t care if he was 7-7 up to that point.
Odom needs more time
28 minutes in the Game 2 just isn’t enough. He played 34 in Game 1 and his minutes need to be around there. Frankly, Luke is flat out awful and should be benched permanently for his play alone, but especially when Lamar is sitting on the bench, there is no excuse for Luke playing. Lamar can play the 3 so when Ariza comes out, have Lamar play the 3 as much as possible. He brings great length to the wing and really helps us out on the boards. Lamar needs to get roughly 35 minutes a game and playing him over Luke is the best way to go. Let Lamar, Pau and Bynum play together at times.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Apr 22, 2009 2:54 PM PDT reply actions
I agree a little bit, but not against Utah
I would like to see Lamar get a couple minutes at SF at some point in these playoffs, playing alongside Bynum and Gasol (with Kobe and Trevor in the backcourt), but that is really not needed against the Jazz, especially with Okur out. The Jazz are just so undersized right now that it’s probably too much to put such a large lineup out there, and would most likely leave the interior too congested on offense, or would leave the perimeter too wide open on defense.
I think if the Lakers were going to limit Luke’s minutes, the better way to do it would be to have Kobe play more at the SF instead with Sasha’s minutes as backup SG increasing. Maybe the Lakers could even go with a 3-man rotation at the SF & SG of Kobe, Trevor and Sasha, sort of like they do at the PF/C with Pau-Drew-Lamar. To be honest though, I think Luke actually has been playing pretty well. He’ll just do better if he’s relegated to playing alongside Kobe, UPS and two of Gasol/Odom/Bynum. It’s real trouble when it’s Luke, Sasha and Jordan on the court together, and it’s totally unnecessary at this point.
Offensively, Lamar doesn't need to play inside
his mid-range jumper is much improved and if he wants to go down low, he doesn’t need to set up there, but instead take his man off the dribble. Defensively, CJ Miles isn’t a major threat off the dribble and Matt Harpring isn’t going to beat Lamar so he won’t have an issue at all defensively on the perimeter. The matchups are perfect for Lamar to play the 3 against the Jazz.
Luke has been awful in this series. Seriously, Matt Harpring is destroying him off the dribble. There isn’t a 3 in the league who Luke can guard and not only does he get beat, but he forces everyone else to help and pick up fouls to cover for him. Luke would have to average 20 points and 10 assists to make up for what he gives up defensively. Lamar needs to play more and I’d agree that Sasha at the 2 with Kobe at the 3 would work too.
I’m intrigued at the thought of playing Trevor, Kobe and Sasha together. Until Shannon Brown stepped up I felt that Ariza would actually do the best defensive job on Deron Williams and I’d like to see us pur Ariza on him some. The couple times they ended up in a switch with either Lamar or Ariza on Williams we fared pretty well because our defender’s length really bothered Williams.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Apr 22, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I like the idea of SV, KB24, and TA
together as well, but not against a team with an elite point guard (Jazz). Sasha can get the ball past mid-court (and even then it can be like watching a train wreck in slow motion), but that’s about it as far as his point guard skills go. Williams would pick his pocket clean every time.
Also, his defense is largely predicated on ball denial and a lot of reaching and grabbing when he gets beat, which does not fly when guarding someone who’s job it is to drive and create. I’d save this little lineup for the Blazers/Rockets,and Magic/Cavs
If I were to play the three of them together
then I’m putting Ariza on Williams. Remember when Farmar was out earlier this year Ariza took some time guarding points and he did a pretty good job. It’s not as if we have many options to guard opposing points. Could Ariza do a much worse job then we’ve been doing on Williams now? I doubt it and I think he’d do better in a 3 or 4 minute spurt because of his length.
Offensively, the triangle doesn’t require a true point. It doesn’t take much to dribble it across midcourt and make a basic pass to the wing. Sasha could do it, as could Kobe or Lamar if he were also in the game. Sasha was the primary ball handler for portions of games this year when Farmar was out and did so against Utah, as well as New Orleans and Boston, who both have point guards who play a litle D.
by Ryan Rosenblatt on Apr 22, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions
The reason why Farmar should not be playing
I just want to be clear: I’m not saying Farmar shouldn’t be playing just because he isn’t playing that great, but rather because there are already two other people at his position. Farmar has not played well for a while, and that’s clearly part of why he should sit, but I’ve never been one of those reactionary fans who says stuff like “that guy sucks, take him out!” I just think that at this time of year there’s really nothing to be resting guys for. This is it, this where you put your foot on the gas and go all in.
Brown and Fisher are playing the best at the PG spot, so they should get the minutes; but the reason that Farmar shouldn’t get any is more because Fish and UPS need the minutes that are available to get into a rhythm. Brown especially needs all the minutes he can get just cause he needs the playoff seasoning. Let Fish and Brown get their 20-30 minutes so they can get their shots and get into the flow of the game.
As for Sasha and Luke, we need to realize that this is not last year. The Lakers should not be banking any success on what either of those two players can do beyond just helping to give the starters a breather and to not get in the way. These should be guys with diminished roles from what they had last year, not because they aren’t playing well, but just because there are so many more reliable and potent weapons ahead of them. Trevor and Kobe should be seeing about 75 of the 96 available minutes at the SF and SG spots, simply because they are so much better than Luke and Sasha. Unless Luke or Sasha come in and just play incredible ball they really shouldn’t be in there for too long, simply because to have them in means that either Kobe or Trevor is sitting on the bench.
Last year the Lakers had a big hole at SF so they needed Luke to step up a lot, and they needed Kobe to help cover that position as well, which left a big hole at SG, so Sasha’s role increased. But that is not the case this year, and no matter what you’re not going to find a better 2-3 combo on this team than Kobe and Trevor.
Don't rely on Trevor to play like he is now all the time
I think part of what is contributing to the whole Trevor should be getting a vast majority of the minutes thing is that he’s playing very well right now. But its interesting to note that, even in a year in which Sasha has struggled with this shot, and Ariza has developed as a legitimate three point threat, Sasha is still outshooting Trevor from 3 by 5% (31% to 36%). If we drastically reduce playing time for Luke or Sasha, and Trevor snaps out of his offensive zone, we could be hurting for outside shooting and teams will be able to pack it in a bit more on the bigs.
I’m not kidding myself that Sasha is just going to instantly turn into last year’s form, but it has to be said that with him on the court, it keeps the middle a bit more open than with Trevor. People are letting Ariza get open 3s. He’s making them right now and that’s great, but the bottom could fall out of that at any time. Meanwhile, when Sasha is in the game, you can tell the other team is spending effort to make sure he doesn’t get going. It’s a big part of why Sasha has struggled this year, teams aren’t ignoring him anymore and he hasn’t adjusted well.
Please don’t read that I think Sasha is better than Trevor, far from it. But I think its a mistake to think that Trevor provides all that Sasha does (shooting) and more (defense, ability to drive) just because he’s shot well the last couple of games.
True, however...
I don’t suspect Trevor will ever be the outside shooter that Sasha is, but Trevor contributes a lot more to the game in virtually every other area than Sasha does. I’m not expecting Trevor (or Shannon Brown) to continue to shoot like this from 3-pt range for the rest of the playoffs either. I think that the only reason they’re hitting like that is because Utah is so poor on defense that they seem to either give up layups/dunks at the rim or totally wide-open three point looks. Virtually every other team the Lakers would probably face in the playoffs will be better on defense than Utah has been. The Lakers have shot something like 58% in these first two games, and it’s crazy for a team to shoot like that for 2 quarters in a row, let alone 8.
When the Lakers do play a team that can close down the lane without totally abandoning the 3-pt line, then you’re going to see Trevor and Shannon’s 3-pt percentages drop. But when that happens, those two will still be able to defend and slash, which is something that Sasha can not (his one facial dunk over the Kings notwithstanding).
We're finding common ground
I’m in complete agreement with you that Trevor provides more than Sasha does overall. I’m simply pointing out that we need strong outside shooting to keep the lane clear for our bigs, and Sasha is capable of providing it. Further, it would be a mistake to cut his playing time any further than it already has been, because it’s unrealistic to expect him to do what we want him to do if he doesn’t have much time to build up a rhythm.
The other reason I’d like to see more of Sasha and Kobe on the floor together is because of the attention Kobe draws from the defense. Sasha is really the only person on the team that can’t really benefit from Kobe’s playmaking, because they are so rarely on the court at the same time.
I like the minute distribution to be: Kobe at 40, Trevor at 30, Sasha at 15, Luke at 10. Within that distribution, there would be 6-8 minutes a game with Kobe and Sasha in at the same time.
if no one thinks farmar should be getting any playing time
why not activate mbenga. in my opinion, mbenga has contributed when asked, and more importantly not hurt the lakers while in the game. this would give so much height at the position, letting gasol play PF exclusively, where he is better suited in my opinion, then you could even bump walton for odom……just an opinion
Bills make me wanna SHOUT!
Should be Mbenga over Morrison
You wanna keep Farmar on the roster just in case there’s either an injury to Fish or UPS, or if both are in bad foul trouble. Jordan has good playoff experience and has produced in the past. The guy the Lakers should bump to make room for Mbenga is Adam Morrison. Can anyone explain why Ammo is on the roster? I don’t think he’s played a meaningful minute in a Laker uniform yet.
I was surprised that PJ didn't make this change after the Game 1 whistle fiasco....
If ever there was a time to have Mbenga active it was during Game 1. And since that is how most Utah games go you would think he would make the change. I have no idea what Morrison is doing in uniform.
"Don't I know you from somewhere"?. "Nah, that ain't me, I'm from Buffalo" - Axel Foley
I just crack up when the announcers (whomever they are for the game).........
say that Luke Walton is so unselfish. Most of his assists come when he should shoot, but he knows he will get blocked so he makes a pass (granted a good one) to someone else for the shot. Unselfish and scared to shoot are two different things.
"Don't I know you from somewhere"?. "Nah, that ain't me, I'm from Buffalo" - Axel Foley
Haha
Yes, this is true, and they don’t have stats for times when you don’t shoot when you should have.
by Gils_Keloids on Apr 22, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
i was listening to jt the brick this evening
and he said the lineup he would like to see the lakers close out games with is kobe and ariza in the backcourt with odom, gasol, and bynum up front. thought?
agreed
with everything said, I just feel like Phil still wants to see if Farmer can still produce and I don’t think he fully wants to leave Farmer on the bench thinking he may need to go to him when they go deep into the playoffs but with that said if I was the coach Brown would be playing fully and I would live with what he does in the game and so far he’s been great and with more opportunity Brown gets more comfortable.
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