Preview: Lakers vs. Jazz

by Josh Tucker on Apr 14, 2009 6:06 PM PDT in Game Previews

This is my first game preview, so bear with me if it needs a bit of fine tuning, and be sure to let me know if there are any features that you would like to become regular fixtures in future preview posts. Game thread will be live shortly before the game, and in the meantime, feel free to weigh in on what you see happening tonight.

Projected Lineups
Lakers: Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Trevor Ariza, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum
Jazz: Deron Williams, Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, Carlos Boozer, Jarron Collins (?)

Where To Watch

TNT at 7:30 p.m. PDT

Jazz Coming In

You've been looking at them for the last few days, so you know about the Jazz coming in. On paper, they should be pretty good -- capable of challenging the Lakers when things are going well. Unfortunately (for them), things have not been going well. They've lost six of their last 10 games. While they're 32-8 at home, they're a dismal 15-25 on the road -- and they don't figure to be at home very much from here on out.

Right now, the Jazz' biggest problem is themselves. They have the pieces to put together a solid game, and they should never be underestimated. Right now, they've got themselves psyched out, and they are commonly described as mentally fragile. Even Jazz fans and bloggers admit that a Lakers win tonight might very well cause the Jazz to fall apart at the seams and collapse inwards upon themselves.

At the same time, all it would take is some motivation and 48 minutes of mental semi-fortitude, and the Jazz have what it takes to make this a game. If the Lakers come expecting an easy win, they may find themselves quickly surprised.

What to Expect

Unlike the Lakers, the Jazz have every reason to be motivated, and everything to play for. Keenly aware of their own recent shortcomings -- in fact, that's part of their problem, as they are too far into their own heads -- they know that a first round matchup with the Lakers doesn't even give them a snowball's chance in hell.

Meanwhile, a win tonight would give them a decent chance of avoiding LA in the playoffs, as they would only need a loss by New Orleans or Dallas to get back to the seventh seed. If you're Utah, you know that if you're going to beat LA at all, it has to be tonight. So expect the Jazz to come in ready to pour a seven-game series worth of motivation and effort into tonight's game.

To win, the Jazz will need to play to their strengths and the Lakers' weaknesses. So expect them to come out very physical and with lots of energy, hoping to bully the Lakers around and take advantage of any overconfidence or coasting on the Lakers' part. They'll try to beat LA back away from the rim, forcing them into contested jumpshots and praying that the Lakers' shooters don't get hot.

Keys to the Game

Knowing how the Jazz will approach the game, the Lakers' shooters need to recognize that there will be plenty of opportunities for the front line to kick out for open jumpshots. Shooters need to be dialed in tonight, ready to hit their open shots early on.

At the same time, LA's bigs need to push back. The Lakers can't fall into the trap of shying away from a brutal game under the hoop and falling in love with jumpshots. Our bigs and our slashers need to make a concentrated effort to thwart Utah's game plan by accepting the challenge and getting to the hoop.

Kobe and Crew need to see this as a prime opportunity to prove that they've shed last year's "soft" label and are tougher this year. Additionally, it's a great opportunity for Andrew Bynum to show that he can be a large part of the answer to the "toughness" question. They key is not to see it as an easy game, but to see it as a direct challenge to the Lakers' toughness and physicality, and to respond with force.

Meanwhile, expect to see Shannon Brown guarding Deron Williams. This will be a good trial run for him, to see if he can be that bigger defensive point guard that Phil Jackson is so fond of. If that doesn't work, don't be surprised to see Trevor Ariza or even Lamar Odom on Williams. The Lakers have had some success at times with those two defending some of the high scoring point guards, as they have the length to frustrate them and the quickness to keep up. As some of you have mentioned already, if the Lakers can take Deron Williams out of the game, the Jazz will have lost their last hope for an improbable upset.

To summarize:

Shooters be ready to hit open jump shots
Bigs and slashers take challenge, push back
Take Deron Williams out of the game, make others beat you
Come out strong, crush their spirits immediately, and get the starters out of the game as early as possible

To Try, or Not to Try?

Yesterday, we discussed the possible strategic advantages of letting the Jazz have this one. I was surprised at how few of you had any sort of ethical objection to intentionally losing, or at least not trying to win, a game. However, the general consensus seems to be (and I agree) that even in this situation, a win is still strategically more advantageous to the Lakers than a loss, for several reasons.

Given the current mental frailty of the Jazz, it seems that the best scenario for the Lakers may be to beat them soundly tonight, breaking their spirits and dashing any hopes they may have of stealing a game, and then proceeding to make quick work of them in the playoffs. Nonetheless, I would prefer for Kobe, Fish, and Gasol all to play fewer than 24 minutes, though it is more likely that Phil will try and hold them below 30.

Final Thoughts

Aside from trying Shannon "UPS" Brown on Williams, don't expect much further tweaking from Jackson. He likes to save those surprises for the playoffs -- and in fact, I'm not even convinced he'll make any significant changes in the first round, as it's not likely to be necessary for a victory. I would guess that if Phil has any tricks up his sleeves, he'll be holding onto them as long as possible, only pulling them out when his team is playing an opponent that merits that extra advantage.

With a win tonight, the Lakers would join the Cavaliers in reaching the 65-win plateau. This is interesting, because only 13 teams in NBA have won 65 games, 11 of whom went on to win the championship. However, there have never been two 65-win teams in the same season. A Lakers win tonight would be the first time that has happened, but it would also mean that one of these two teams will become only the third 65-win team not to win the championship.

Tune in a few minutes before game time, as we'll have a live game thread going, the first chance at real-time interaction for this new Laker community.

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Comments

Another nice tidbit

I forgot where it was mentioned (but most likely it was over at FB&G) but if the Lakers win their 65th win this season, it’ll be the first team to ever win that many games without a winning streak over 7 (8?) games, which shows the high level of consistency the team has been playing with all season long.

One thing that the Lakers need to be aware of is to be focused at all times because of Utah’s “screen here, screen there, screen everywhere” offense so they need to communicate on defense. Looking forward to the game and the postgame show.

Also, the one Jazz player other than Deron Williams that must be kept under wraps is Paul Millsap. I haven’t seen him lately but did get glimpses of him when Boozer was out and he is, simply put, a beast.

Go Lakers!

by hertagnism on Apr 14, 2009 6:17 PM PDT reply actions

Millsap isn't performing at the level he was when Boozer was out...

He’s foul prone and can’t shoot free throws and is looking quite a lot like the excellent BACKUP that he is.

The key to stopping Utah is shutting down their superstar, Deron Williams, and their big front line scoring threat, Carlos “Who’s Gonna Pay Me Next?” Boozer.

Memo is a nice player if you like your bigs taking 23 footers. Which I hate.

Kirilenko is one of the worst contracts in the NBA ($86M for a 6th man?!?!). He’s gonna be the cause of the plague if the franchise melts down over the next couple years. But I have to think that any team with Deron isn’t gonna fall too far.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Apr 14, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Great post

I am so excited about today’s match up since it will be somewhat of a preview for the Lakers first match up in the first round. I think that any team who considers themselves title contenders truly does not care who they face in the playoffs. I do not mean to get corny but I have to use the following example.

In the movie 8 mile towards the end of the movie after Eminem’s character has been jumped, just like the Lakers felt after last year’s Finals game six, and Eminem is told who he is facing, what is his response, " I don’t give an F who it is" That is how the Lakers should be feeling right now. None of this, who is better or who would be easier. That sounds too much like a reliance on another team’s inabilities rather than thinking that whomever the Lakers face, it will be the Lakers strengths and will to win that is important regardless of who they face. I love this team! GO LAKERS!

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Apr 14, 2009 6:20 PM PDT reply actions

Any time you can work 8 mile into the discussion........

you deserve to be commended. :-)

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Thank you...

I know it was reach but all I could think of at the time.

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Apr 14, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Wait wait

Jarron Collins?
Where did you see that?

If that’s true, I might have to go bang my head against a wall for a bit…

True Blue Jazz
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on Apr 14, 2009 6:42 PM PDT reply actions

Question mark means I don't know

Maybe you can clear it up for me. I read earlier that Okur was questionable for tonight, but in between then and now was some Mexican food and a 44oz margarita, and not enough time to figure out if that’s true, and if so, who replaces him.

Maybe you can solve the mystery for us: Is Memo good to go tonight, or not? If not, who’s getting the start?

Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on Apr 14, 2009 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I think Memo is out

and sadly, Flop is getting the start over Koufos & Fesenko. And even ‘Sap, though starting 6’8 and 6’9 against your twin towers might be stupid.

True Blue Jazz
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on Apr 14, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions

So...

I’m not wrong?

Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on Apr 14, 2009 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Sadly

I don’t think so.

True Blue Jazz
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on Apr 14, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep

Memo & CJ out, Flop & No Knees starting.

True Blue Jazz
RIP Nick Adenhart. 4/9/09

by UtesFan89 on Apr 14, 2009 7:02 PM PDT up reply actions

that reminds me...

are you in LA area or elsewhere?

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Great preview

Little late to the welcoming party, but…welcome! Glad to have another Lakers blog around, and representing LA on SBN.

by Snoopy2006 on Apr 14, 2009 6:44 PM PDT reply actions

Taken the time to see this place

And wow, for one day, there’s a ton of content here. Which is a credit to you all I suppose.

To SS&R: I know you’re still learning this stuff. One thing I’ll say having seen how many places here do the game threads, is that some combine the game thread and preview together, and some do them separately. The good choice you have is that it’s up to you.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 7:02 PM PDT reply actions

that may be dictated in the future by volume

but that ain’t a bad problem to have, right Josh?

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Or not

Game Threads can carry up to a 1000 comments in many cases. Or, in many other cases, not. But the point I’m making is that you can combine them. Previews rarely generate that many responses. Of course. SS&R could be different in this regard.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 7:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Who knows.........

there are obviously a lot of Laker fans and a lot of Laker blogs, so there could be game threads with 2000 people or not even close. Who knows?

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions

by people I mean comments........my bad

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Once people realize how many comments can be made

They will post here alot I guarantee it.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Apr 14, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions

That preview sucked.........

But you’ll get better I’m sure. Kidding of course. Nice job. PtR does a great preview with graphics etc. Maybe the guy over there will show you how to if you don’t already know. I think his name is Aaronstampler?

by pslakerfan on Apr 14, 2009 7:14 PM PDT reply actions

S. Brown or Farmar

This topic migh to been a post that was talked about earlie but I would like to know what everyone thinks of S. Brown over Farmar? I mean in regards to guarding Deron Williams. Is it me or does he remind anyone of when Ariza first came to the Lakers. His physical abilities along with eagerness on defense my mean the end for Farmar. He is great offensively but not defensively. Anyone?

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Apr 14, 2009 7:20 PM PDT reply actions

I would say right now that I like Shannon Brown. There is something to say for going with the hot hand. Plus it seems that Brown is a much more energetic player at the moment, which certainly bodes well. Defensively, he certainly can’t be any worse then Farmar. So I say play on Shannon Brown!!

by LAKERJK on Apr 14, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

To avoid a guaranteed loss, the Jazz must defeat the team that is guaranteed to beat them...

Good luck with that.

Pontiff of the Pryz for Prez Posse...

by timbo on Apr 14, 2009 7:21 PM PDT reply actions

Clever!

You may have already sealed up the Pithy Comment of the Night Award.

Strength & Honor

by Josh Tucker on Apr 14, 2009 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions

i say the lakers pound the jazz tonight

so that the jazz don’t get any fancy ideas

by Adamas on Apr 14, 2009 7:30 PM PDT reply actions

yes! finally, a lakers blog. steve parrin of the clippers’ blog informed me via email that this was up yesterday or today. thanks again. let’s go lakers. i have a lot say.

by chaucer on Apr 14, 2009 10:38 PM PDT reply actions