Back-to-Back Preview: Timberwolves and Jazz
Who wants another Laker blowout?
I hope you all raised your hands, because you're getting one tonight whether you like it or not. The traveling clown show known as the Minnesota Timberwolves visits Staples this evening, and they're every bit as horrid as their 3-19 record would lead you to think. Under the tutelage of new coach Kurt Rambis, the T-Pups have been outscored by nearly 11 points per game, an even worse clip than that of the New Jersey Nets. You've gotta give them credit: they've come by their 0.136 winning percentage honestly.
After tonight's scrimmage, however, it's time to get back to work. The Lakers immediately hit the road for date number two with the Utah Jazz tomorrow night, followed by four more away games in distant time zones. Accordingly, against the low-grade Timberwolves it would behoove them not to monkey around. Drop the hammer early, and rest the starters as much as possible. They'll need their strength for the journey ahead.
Where do you even start with a team like Minnesota? With over a quarter of the season in the books, they've been bad enough to prompt John Hollinger to inquire, at column length, whether they'll prove to be one of the worst teams in NBA history. They recently had a string of 15 consecutive losses; the Lakers, by stark comparison, haven't lost 15 games in the last nine calendar months, even when you include all four of last year's playoff series. Minnesota's at or close to the bottom in about a dozen key statistical categories.
The Wolves' most acute failing has been an almost complete inability to put the ball in the hoop. Rambis has attempted to install the Triangle Offense he learned under Phil Jackson, but the results have not been sexy. Minny has an Offensive Rating of only 97.2, fourth-worst in the league. It's not surprising that the Triangle hasn't yielded instant returns - it's a hard offense to pick up and requires versatile, experienced players - but what the Wolves have been leaving on the court is some truly ugly crap.
Anthony Macri of Basketball Prospectus yesterday published an excellent piece analyzing why, on an X's and O's level, the Minnesota Triangle hasn't been working. I recommend you read the whole thing - I always learn something new whenever I read Macri's work - but here are a few money quotes.
Though Minnesota looks moderately comfortable running the read-and-react triangle, players are not always purposeful in their cuts and seem to rush through the options. Watch the next time they run a man off the elbow for a handoff - that player goes past and just floats to the next option. If the Wolves instead took their time and explored each cut and exploited each movement, they would find there are a lot of points waiting to be discovered....
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there is hesitation on the part of multiple players in Minnesota to execute what Tex Winter called the "ping pass." This offense, by design, is one where the ball should be moved within two seconds of its being received (either by the pass or by the attacking dribble). The Timberwolves have too many players interested in stopping the ball. This is an offense-killer in the triangle and something that needs to be fixed in order for the Wolves to really make progress.
It'll be odd but interesting to see a team other than the Lakers run the Triangle. One would think the Lakers have a big head start in defending it, as it's the offense they run in practice every day. That cuts both ways, of course - the Timberwolves will arrive with some advance intel about the Laker offense - but the experience gap is massive.
Minny's primary offensive options are center Al Jefferson and rookie point guard Jonny Flynn. Jefferson was playing like a breakout star last year before suffering a season-ending ACL tear after 50 games. He's back but hasn't yet returned to pre-injury form. A heavier reliance on midrange jumpers has hurt his shooting numbers, and as an undersized center he's the type to struggle against the tall and lanky Laker bigs.
Flynn hasn't set the league afire like fellow rookies Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans, but he's had his moments, as when he held his own against Deron Williams in an upset win over Utah last weekend. He's been one of the most turnover-prone point guards in the NBA, a big reason why the Timberwolves are one of the most turnover-prone teams. He also has terrible defensive numbers; Minny is much better defensively when backup Ramon Sessions is on the floor. Sessions offers the added benefit of being one of the better rebounding guards around.
Much-needed reinforcement for Jefferson and Flynn has lately arrived in the form of Kevin Love. Tonight will be Love's fifth game back after recovering from a broken hand, and so far he's looking like the Wolves' best player even though Rambis hasn't started him yet. Per 40 minutes of play he's averaging 22 points on 69% True Shooting. Like Jefferson, he's short for his position and will have problems with whoever's guarding him this evening, but he's strong and a phenomenal position rebounder. If the Lakers are as indifferent on the defensive glass as they were in the first half against the Jazz, Love will find garbage points available in bunches.
Aside from turnovers, Minnesota's other big, big problem is that they have no shooters to stretch the floor. They both take and make threes at some of the lowest rates in the league. Corey Brewer is the NBA's worst starting shooting guard, and things don't really improve when rookie Wayne Ellington replaces him on the floor. Combined, they're making 18% of their three-point attempts. I repeat: these are professional shooting guards.
The Wolves' starting small forward is, I kid you not, Damien Wilkins. On any reputable team he'd be a purely garbage-time performer. Oleksiy Pecherov comes off the bench to satisfy the requirement that every NBA franchise have at least one player from the former Soviet Union.
At power forward, Ryan Gomes has been a relative bright spot. He hovers toward the bottom of the top 20 in a number of positional stat rankings. He's basically the only T-Wolf who can hit a three, but he attempts only a couple each game. It seems safe to say that when Ryan Gomes is one of your team's most valuable contributors, you're at or near the bottom of the rebuilding curve.
I should point out a couple things in half-assed defense of Minnesota. One, they're not as bad on D. Please don't think they're any good, mind you, but they're not the fumbling disaster their offensive "attack" is. Two, their recent play has flirted with respectability: over their five most recent games they've been outscored by only 0.02 points per possession against a not-horrible slate of opponents. As mentioned above, they beat Utah at home, and they even stole a win in Denver on November 29th.
Whatever - they're losing tonight, and they're losing big. Rambis will get his championship ring before the game, but that'll be the high point for them. This time tomorrow the Lakers will be 18-3.
Catching Up With the Jazz
A far sterner challenge awaits the Lakers tomorrow, when they visit SLC for their second game against the Jazz in four days. This will be the Lakers' fourth back-to-back set of the season so far. In their first three they went 2-1 on the back ends. On November 4th, they beat Houston by a point in overtime; on November 13th they got destroyed in Denver; and on November 29th they yawned their way past the Nets. Last year the Lakers were 14-5 in the second games of back-to-backs.
We've talked plenty about the Jazz lately. For a detailed scouting report you can see my preview of Wednesday's matchup here. There's also lots of recappage and highlights available all over SS&R if you want to poke around a bit. The Jazz did, you should know, bounce back nicely from the massacre at Staples by beating Orlando last night, 120-111. They sliced up a good Magic defense for over 1.25 PPP, with Deron Williams (32 points, 15 assists, 8 rebounds, 1 turnover) balling out of his mind.
I think we can assume there won't be any six-point quarters to enjoy tomorrow.
Our sister sites Canis Hoopus and SLC Dunk will have more coverage of these matchups. They both do a fine job and are worth your time to check out. If you decide to wander over and say hello, please be excellent to everyone.
|
Lakers |
Timberwolves |
Jazz |
|
|
RECORD |
17-3 |
3-19 |
13-9 |
|
NET POINTS PER GAME |
+9.1 (1st) |
-10.9 (30th) |
+2.3 (11th) |
|
PACE |
95.0 (6th) |
94.9 (7th) |
91.4 (23rd) |
|
OFFENSIVE RATING |
108.8 (11th) |
97.2 (29th) |
109.1 (10th) |
|
Turnover Rate (Off.) |
12.7% (4th) |
15.1 (29th) |
14.1 (16th) |
|
FTA/FGA (Off.) |
0.27 (25th) |
0.24 (29th) |
0.31 (16th) |
|
Free-Throw % |
75.6 (14th) |
72.3 (27th) |
75.4 (16th) |
|
Effective FG% (Off.) |
50.3 (13th) |
46.3 (28th) |
51.4 (9th) |
|
True Shooting% (Off.) |
54.1 (16th) |
49.8 (28th) |
55.5 (9th) |
|
Off Rebounding Rate |
27.6% (10th) |
26.5% (18th) |
27.0 (14th) |
|
DEFENSIVE RATING |
99.3 (2nd) |
108.7 (22nd) |
106.9 (17th) |
|
Turnover Rate (Def.) |
14.5% (11th) |
14.4% (12th) |
13.4% (18th) |
|
FTA/FGA (Def.) |
0.27 (5th) |
0.30 (13th) |
0.34 (25th) |
|
Effective FG% (Def.) |
45.5 (1st) |
51.3 (24th) |
50.2 (20th) |
|
True Shooting% (Def.) |
50.0 (1st) |
55.6 (23rd) |
54.8 (20th) |
|
Def Rebounding Rate |
72.2% (23rd) |
73.0% (16th) |
75.4% (6th) |
All statistical terms defined here. Parentheses indicate league rankings. Numbers are courtesy of Basketball Reference and HoopData and, except for record and net points per game, are through Thursday night's action.
0 recs |
30 comments
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Comments
A little off topic, but this was posted on T-Wolves blog today as a good way to fix the All-Star voting issues (I mean T-mac, really?)
Let the sports writers pick the starting 5. The writers are watching the stars night in and night out. I guarantee this is the way to get the most justice out of the starting lineups.
Let the coaches select 5 players. Coaches are most likely to vote based on slightly different criteria than the writers or fans. I’ll call this the Al Jefferson vote. Last year any coach in the league who had faced both Shaq and Al know that Jefferson was having a break-out season, while Shaq was playing mediocre, at best.
Let the fans pick the last 5. That way if people are so desperate to see their favorite player, that player will get a few minutes here and there.
Voting from the writers would conclude a month before the the All Star break. Coaches would have two days after the returns from the writers to pick the next available 5 players. These processes would not take as long as the normal voting process, because we’re talking about 30 writers and 30 coaches. Lastly, the fans would have about two weeks to vote, which doesn’t seem like much, but here’s why:
1.) Fans would be forced to actually wait almost half the season before submitting a vote.
2.) The smaller time frame would make it more likely that less fair-weather fans would participate in the voting, thus hopefully eliminating the likes of this years’ TMac votes.
I would like to officially submit this to the league. David Stern, it’s your move.
Billy Mac: "Lamar, can you see yourself actually getting in the (boxing) ring"?
Lamar Odom: "No. My face is too pretty."
someone brought this up yesterday
about a new way to vote because the way it is done it gives it a more American Idol feel to it. So it’s based more on popularity and less on talent. But then again, Stern likes the idea of fans being involved because he feels that increases ratings. Who knows if it does or doesn’t. But in terms of fairness that would be great to see the system change. Even if that means no Kobe or no Lakers for that matter. I think the current voting system is too flawed.
"These young guys are playing checkers. I'm out there playing chess" - Kobe
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Dec 11, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Of course, the biggest problem with that is that the All-Star team only has 12 players
But yeah, something’s gotta get fixed. T-Mac should only be voted in if it’s Lakers fans looking for a way to sneak Pau or Drew in there…(injury replacement, anyone?)
by wearecb4life on Dec 11, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
another issues is. having the fans vote last might tempt the coaches/writers to choose with that in mind. Meaning let’s say you have a player who is very deserving but is also a fan favorite. Then let’s say there is another player who isn’t as popular but is deserving to be considered. Perhaps some coaches or writers might be inclined to vote for the latter expecting the fans to vote in the former… but then what happens if the fans vote otherwise…
every fan knows what i am talking about…. if you’ve done any kind of rankings or polls..
just a thought.
get off me bandwagoners!
http://blog.cleancutmedia.com
by cleancutmedia on Dec 11, 2009 2:37 PM PST up reply actions
Coaches wouldn’t be inclined, because whether or not fans are angry over the coach’s picks, the coaches votes are not publicized so no one would know which coach to get angry at. I wouldn’t say coaches are pressured into picking someone more popular. They coach teams and prepare for the opposition I’m sure they know which players are worthy and which aren’t.
It’s the All Star Game. People get to choose the players they want to watch. Why do people get their panties in a bunch about it?
ITS AN ALL STAR GAME. People take it waaay too seriously.
So if you are Chris Kaman you won't mind if T-Mac gets in but you don't even get on the ballot.
I doubt it. You may not care but the players do and they should. It could affect their next contract as well.
Billy Mac: "Lamar, can you see yourself actually getting in the (boxing) ring"?
Lamar Odom: "No. My face is too pretty."
If GM’s are signing players solely based on ASG appearances, then they aren’t doing their job correctly.
I don’t care. It’s a game meant to entertain the fans. The fans vote in the players they want to see. If the fans want to see Tracy Mcgrady, then Tracy Mcgrady it is.
The Chris Kaman example:
1. Im not Chris Kaman so how would I know how I’d feel.
2. Why would Kaman be mad over T-Mac playing in the game? McGrady is a guard, Kaman is a center. The votes Tracy receives do not damage the votes Kaman receives. I’d be more inclined to be angry with the NBA for leaving me off the ballot thus limiting any chance I have of getting voted into the ASG.
3. Kaman has dropped off significantly since his hot start.
Jazz want revenge for sure
I remember Stu and Joel mentioning it will be a very difficult game against the Jazz because the Lakers are on a b2b and the Jazz will be looking for revenge.
Lakers 2009 Road to Redemption: TREVOR, DEREK, LAMAR, PAU & KOBE.
Play the game of which Lakers reminds you of: TA - TI, Shannon Brown - Chris Brown, Pau Gasol - Jesus, Machine - Luis Scola/Russell Brand, PJ with mustache and beard - Colonel Sanders.
by PeanutButterSpread on Dec 11, 2009 1:25 PM PST reply actions
Minny should be a better team from here on out
Missing Love and having a hobbled Jefferson really hurt that offense, especially not having Love, whose passing, shooting, and rebounding was sorely missed on this team. Rambis deciding to play Gomes at the four was also a good decision, as he’s historically been far more effective as a small-ball four, although that will constitute a massive disadvantage against us tonight; Rambis may opt for a Love-Jefferson lineup simply for the added size and bring in Gomes against Odom. My big quibble is that Rambis still isn’t playing Flynn and Sessions together, and although his reasoning is understandable, this team would really benefit from an added playmaker. One of those two needs to learn how to shoot consistently though, or Ellington needs to step up.
That said, this should be a straightforward blowout. Only real mismatch is Flynn on Fisher, and Rambis hasn’t allowed Flynn to consistently run what he does best (the pick-and-roll), so I wouldn’t worry too much.
To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
by Ben R on Dec 11, 2009 1:28 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
'Should be' is the important part
We can’t forget that Denver just lost to this Minnesota team just a few games back. The wolves were down 14 at the half and came back to win AT Denver.
If we come out to play and keep closing in our minds, the win will take care of itself.
Totally off topic
but I could imagine the backlash if it was Kobe who had missed the begining of the season and he was voted to the All Star game. There would be so many conspiracy theories coming out.
"These young guys are playing checkers. I'm out there playing chess" - Kobe
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Dec 11, 2009 3:09 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
+1
Billy Mac: "Lamar, can you see yourself actually getting in the (boxing) ring"?
Lamar Odom: "No. My face is too pretty."
Also, about Rambis vs. Lakers
I would imagine that if there were any coach in the NBA that could draw up a defensive gameplan that could hopefully stop the Lakers, Rambis would be at the top of the list.
He might have the game plan,
but he doesn’t have anything close to the right personnel.
by DexterFishmore on Dec 11, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
anyone remember that lakers vs wolves game back in january?
it was part of that 6 game road trip which included boston and cleveland
the lakers played bad D, they gave up like 120 points
but both Bynum and Jefferson were straight out balling
soon after, both centers got injured.
Leave Chad Billingsley alone!!!
i went to that game!
it was -13 in minny
YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD YES!
www.reverbnation.com/czheckproductions
meanwhile about Orlando
They are now 4-4 against teams with a winning record. talk about your easy schedules.
OK, on the count of three (together now)
One.
Two.
Three………..
GO BLAZERS!!!!!! (tonight only).
Billy Mac: "Lamar, can you see yourself actually getting in the (boxing) ring"?
Lamar Odom: "No. My face is too pretty."
by pslakerfan on Dec 11, 2009 5:14 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I thought the Cavs were not using Shaq correctly, but I was wrong. Shaq has nothing in the
Cavs don’t matter to me. Just Celtics and Denver… I guess Cavs are next
by Julio Nievas on Dec 11, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
I take that back
My Team rankings to root against:
1. Celtics
2. Nuggets
3. Blazers
4. Rockets
5. Suns
6. Jazz
7.Mavs
8. Magic
9.Cavs
10. Spurs
Teams 4-7 can be in any order
by Julio Nievas on Dec 11, 2009 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
omg! hell yeah!
On off nights or when the Lakers play late I think we should have open threads for games like these. Especially any game that includes Boston, Cavs or Orlando.
"These young guys are playing checkers. I'm out there playing chess" - Kobe
by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Dec 11, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions
Charley Rosen has an awesome article that is the Straight Shooting section of his recaps
of games. Check it out here.
Here are couple of quotes:
It’s totally understandable that LeBron would break into one of his funky sideline dance routines against Chicago last week. After all, a home-court win against the mighty Bulls in early December is certainly an excellent reason for him to celebrate and strut his stuff.
Never mind that he was showboating — again. And dissing his opponents — again. And acting like a spoiled, pampered brat— again.
Hey, can’t a king have some fun?
Kobe is truly an all-time great player, but it’s Pau Gasol who makes the Lakers a great team.
After dunking or scoring a key basket, Kevin Garnett pounds his chest with such force that he’s in danger of fracturing his own sternum. Do All-Star players really need to pump themselves up after doing what they’re supposed to be doing?
Kobe has the best off-hand of any player in the league.
Watching this Cavs vs Blazers game.....
A couple of thoughts.
1) Cavs aren’t really that good. Not bad, but not that good.
2) I don’t know how they calculate “usage rate”, but Lebron’s “touching rate” is off the charts. No wonder he gets 30 and 8 every night.
Billy Mac: "Lamar, can you see yourself actually getting in the (boxing) ring"?
Lamar Odom: "No. My face is too pretty."
Cavs have good D, but without Lebron in helm at offense, they will be outscored. I think they are that good, but they don’t have length (Which killed them in the playoffs). Danny Ferry had a terrible off-season, they will not have Lebron next season.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 11, 2009 6:43 PM PST up reply actions

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