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Early Indications: Kobe Bryant Dominates in the Post

So this is what Kobe Bryant in decline looks like?

For the first time in three years, this summer, Kobe had the summer off. That's not to say that he took the summer off, mind you — Kobe being Kobe, I can guarantee you that he put in just as much hard work as ever. But unlike the last two summers, which he devoted to USA basketball, first preparing for and then winning a gold medal, this summer was all Kobe's, to do with whatever he wished.

For Kobe, that meant only one thing:  Working on his game. As J.E. Skeets of Yahoo! Sports' Ball Don't Lie blog pointed out, it's one of the things that makes Kobe so special. While young players like Andrew Bynum are casting off Hall of Fame mentors as though they've learned all they can, Kobe Bryant, the best player in the game and a 14-year veteran, is still learning, still seeking out mentors.

As Phil Jackson recently pointed out (via The Press-Enterprise), "Kobe always has a goal. He doesn't go through summer playing golf or fishing. He's got something in his mind he's going to work on with his game during the offseason." This offseason, that something was his already-stellar post game. To that end, as you have all heard a dozen times by now, he called up the most skilled post player ever to play the game, Hakeem "The Dream" Olajuwon.

A mere six games into the season, the effects of Kobe's offseason work on his game are stunningly obvious.

Star-divide

Please understand the significance of this move by Bryant. Going into the offseason, he was already one of the most skilled post players in the NBA, pound-for-pound. His footwork is unparalleled, and while he is no center, he has certainly been capable for many years now of taking even defenders bigger than him into the post, backing them down, and scoring on them. So for Bryant to make his post game the primary focus of his offseason efforts says a lot.

The resulting whispers, in reaction to the news that Kobe Bryant was studying under Hakeem Olajuwon, were full of what-ifs. Kobe Bryant is 31, and still a dominant all around player — what if he developed the kind of post dominance Michael Jordan had, at the same late stage in his career? How good could Kobe be? How much longer could he remain at the top of his game? How many years could that add to his prime? And most of all:  How many more championships can he lead the Lakers to?

And the scary part in all of this? He only spent two hours with The Dream, and he did so only a week before training camp. While he was undoubtedly working all summer, many of these new moves are ones that Bryant has barely had time to really practice.

And yet, the early results indicate nothing less than complete, smashing success.

Consider this:  ESPN's John Hollinger predicted a decline for Kobe, joining a number of experts in pointing to Kobe Bryant's significant drop in free throw attempts per game as a telling indicator that he was beginning the inevitable downward slide. As the theory goes, fewer free throw attempts reflect a lessened ability to get into the paint for high percentage looks, and a corresponding increased reliance on outside jumpshots. But with the continued development in Kobe's post game, the opposite appears to have happened.

In 2006-07, Bryant averaged 10.0 free throw attempts per game. The next year, that number dropped to 9.0. Last year, that statistic dropped much more dramatically, to 6.9 attempts per game. The incremental decrease seemed to indicate the steady slippage which came with age, and the significant drop seen last year was even less encouraging.

This year, however, that number is back up. In fact, it's higher than ever. Through six games this year, he is averaging 10.8 free throw attempts per game — and that despite a 4-FTA outing last night (prior to which he had averaged 12.2 attempts per game). In case you're wondering, 10.8 attempts per game is not just better than in 2006-07 — it is the highest mark of Bryant's entire career.

A look at some advanced statistics — courtesy of HoopData.com, which (among many other things) breaks players shot attempts down by distance from the hoop (thanks to Hardwood Paroxysm's Matt Moore for turning me onto this excellent resource) — helps us understand what's happening here. Consider these numbers:

  • In both 2006-07, and 2007-08, Bryant averaged 5.1 shots at the rim.
  • In 2008-09, that number went down, as Bryant averaged only 4.4 shots from point blank range.
  • Thus far in 2009-10, however, Bryant is averaging 9.0 shots at the rim.

Such an increase in close shots is mind-blowing. Rather than taking fewer shots at the rim than last year, Bryant is taking twice as many! Certainly, this goes a long way towards explaining Kobe's increased free throw attempts, as well. Meanwhile, this increased emphasis on inside work has been accompanied by decreased outside shooting — again, the complete opposite of what was expected from him coming into this season.

In 2006-07, Bryant attempted 5.2 three-point shots per game. The next year, that number was nearly identical, at 5.1. In 2008-09, it dropped slightly, though still fairly high at 4.1 three-point attempts per game. This year, however, the drop in three-point attempts that has accompanied his increase in close shots has been dramatic:  through six games, he has attempted only 2.2 three-point shots per game.

Bryant's work in the mid- to high-post has also seen greater emphasis. In the two years from 2006 to 2008, he attempted 1.5 shots per game inside of 10 feet (but outside of point blank range); this year, he has averaged 2.3 attempts from that range. The combined effect is an increase in close (at rim) and short range (<10 feet) shots from 6.6 per game in the last three years to 11.3 this year.

He has also taken approximately three more shots from 10-15 feet this year compared to three years ago, while attempting nearly two fewer shots from 16-23 feet.

Finally, it's worth pointing out that so far this year, 100% of Bryant's three-point attempts have been assisted — as opposed to between 64% and 68% in the past three years. This would seem to further indicate more careful shot selection from long range. It also tells us that his three-point attempts have been more a result of spot-up, open shots (i.e., the good kind), and less a result of settling for long, contested shots when closer, higher percentage ones can be had (i.e., the bad kind). While he hasn't been hitting well from that range, it's a clear indication of improved long distance shot selection, and if he keeps that up, the shots will start to fall.

Of course, this likely also explains why Kobe is back on top of the NBA scoring ladder, leading all players with an average of 34.5 points per game, and topping 40 points in three of his last four games (each time, strangely enough, with 41 points exactly) — all while shooting the highest raw percentage of his entire career, at 48.1% from the field (his previous high was 46.9% in 2001-02).

Of course, it's still early. It's entirely possible that the numbers from this very small, six-game sample size are a fluke, and will even out over the course of the season. This raises two obvious questions: First, is it really possible that Kobe's post game has improved this dramatically from a mere two hours with Hakeem, only a week before training camp? And second, are these numbers an indication of real, valid, significant improvement, which can be expected to continue, rather than just a fluke or a series of coincidences?

The answer to both questions, is would seem, is a resounding, "Yes."

Kobe's most recent mentor was in the stands when the Lakers visited Houston on Wednesday, and he watched as Bryant schooled renowned defender Shane Battier in the post. Jeff Eisenberg of the Press-Enterprise had this to say about the game:

What impressed Olajuwon most about Bryant was the fluidity with which the Lakers star duplicated his moves. Whereas some young big men twisted themselves into human pretzels trying to imitate Olajuwon, Bryant's agility and athleticism allowed him to have success within hours.

Bryant showcased some of what he learned in front of Olajuwon on Wednesday night, shaking off the effects of a lingering cold to score 41 points on 15-for-30 shooting in an overtime victory against the Rockets. Olajuwon was especially pleased to see Bryant take a perimeter defensive ace such as Battier into the post and comfortably turn and score around him with either shoulder, one of the skills they worked on together.

So, has Kobe already incorporated Hakeem's moves into his arsenal? Apparently so. Bryant is well-known for being able to try a move one day in practice, and use it flawlessly and to devastating effect the next day in a game. In the Houston game, Eisenberg described Kobe as repeatedly staring at the same person as he ran down the court after scoring in the post — Hakeem Olajuwon, sitting courtside. For his part, The Dream knew exactly what the stare meant:

"He looked at me to confirm, 'I'm using what you taught me,' " Hakeem Olajuwon said. "That was the greatest gift for me. It was wonderful."

Clearly, this is no coincidence. Clearly, Bryant's increased post work has been deliberate — and extremely successful. His interaction with Olajuwon from the court makes that obvious, and Olajuwon's comments after the game confirm that he sees Bryant as having successfully incorporated what The Dream taught him into his game. The complete helplessness of Shane Battier, the defender thought to be the best at defending Kobe Bryant, is the proof in the pudding.

And that's just in the last couple of months. As good as Kobe already is in the post, and as quickly as he has already incorporated the moves Hakeem taught him into his arsenal, expect him still to continue to improve, as he continues to practice and use his new moves.

It's only six games in, and the sample size is small, but every indication is that this major improvement in Kobe Bryant's game is deliberate, real, and here to stay. That steady decline that was predicted for Kobe going into the season? Go ahead and put that on hold, for the time being, as Kobe appears to be heading in the opposite direction.

UPDATE:  A valid point relating to Kobe's dominance in the post that has been raised is that of the Lakers's current lack of quality personnel down low. This is only partially true; for the majority of these games, Andrew Bynum has been on the floor, and playing quite a few minutes (showing excellent stamina, to the great delight of Lakers fans everywhere). Yes, Pau Gasol has been missing — but his return will have less of an effect on Kobe's post presence than you might think, for three reasons. First, he and Bynum only share the court for about 15 minutes a game, maybe 20 at most; thus, you can expect Kobe to play similarly while Gasol is at center (and Bynum on the bench) to how he has while Gasol has been injured. Second, it's entirely likely that Kobe will get a couple extra close shot opportunities with Gasol in at center, since Gasol is both more willing to defer than Bynum, and a much better passer. He also demands more attention than Bynum, which could lead to some very effective two-man play in the post between Kobe and Gasol. Third, the simple fact is that Kobe gets a certain number of "do your own thing" possessions per game, regardless of who is on the court. In the past, this meant facing up and taking his man off the dribble; based on his blatantly obvious mindset to start this season, however, it seems reasonable to expect him to use those possessions mostly in the post. For those possessions, it won't matter who's on the court — they'll make room for him wherever he wants to be. So while Gasol's return could change a few things, I don't expect it to have a significant impact on Kobe's post game; I expect this to be a primary emphasis for Kobe going forward.

I leave you with some thoughts from Kelly Dwyer, expressing the potential greatness that could result from these new developments — indeed, this new leap — in Kobe's game:

Kobe Bryant was so picturesque perfect in this game, and I don't mind telling you that this is just about as good as I've ever seen him.

He's, literally, scored nearly twice as much as he did tonight (41 points). He's done brighter, flashier things on bigger stages, with more to lose, with more going on. Doesn't matter.

Against Shane Battier, who knows exactly what to do, Kobe did something he's never done against Shane - take it to the post.

Take it to the post, to that triple-threat, and drive the Rockets mad. Make them his absolute creature. Just run things. If this is latter-day Kobe Bryant, then latter-day Kobe Bryant will be dominant. Completely and utterly dominant. Jordan-esque, dominant, in a way that Kobe just wasn't even when he was dropping 40 by hitting contested jumpers from 21-feet away.

Just the perfect game. As I mentioned before - he's faced scarier circumstances. But the game's most dogged competitor put dogged those instincts aside tonight, in favor of a brain that ranks amongst the game's elite. The game's all-time elite.

I know it's the first week of the season, I know you think I'm fawning, and I don't care. This wasn't just another 41-point game for Kobe Bryant. This was basketball, at its best.

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Comments

Display:

Nice work, Josh

Very good piece. Those HoopData numbers are quite telling.

by DexterFishmore on Nov 7, 2009 3:40 PM PST reply actions  

Thanks for posting. Enjoyed the article.

And yes I am a 2009 World Champion Fan.

by olf on Nov 7, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions  

Bravo Josh!

This was exactly what I’ve been trying to say when I still read comments like this from ignorant morons:

Peja Stojakovic says:

A: Too early to even talk about MVPs.

B: The Lakers are SUPPOSED to be good right now.

C: The Lakers schedule is more or less HISTORICALLY EASY right now.

D: They STILL almost lost to the Clippers in the opener, almost lost to the THUNDER, and BARELY beat the Rockets who are without Yao AND T-Mac. I know that Pau Gasol is out, but this is probably the least impressive 5-1 team I’ve ever seen.

E: Pretty heady prediction from Dime, when Melo is playing well for the FIRST PLACE Nuggets, and Steve Nash is also playing out of his mind for the SECOND PLACE Suns. Both of those teams were supposed to be worse than the Lakers AND the Spurs. Speaking of overachieving teams, the Heat are in second place in the East, ahead of the Magic and the Cavaliers. I don’t like him, but D Wade probably deserves early MVP talk over Kobe, who has Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum. Dwight Howard has his team at 5-1 without Vince Carter OR Rashard Lewis.

F: Despite having such a "deep" team, Kobe is taking a league-leading 26 shots per game, 4 more than the next player (Kevin Martin, 22.2 on a team that desperately needs him to shoot)!!! For all the talk about how much Kobe has "matured", he’s still the exact same player.

Hopefully, no one is REALLY on Kobe’s nuts right now.

It’s another reason why I should avoid going on other sites because I just feel like bashing my head on keyboard when I read stupid comments like that.

The guy clearly was just looking at the stat sheet / box score when he wrote that. This Kobe is not the same 06-07 Kobe that forced contested fadeaway jumpers with a defender’s hand in his face … no, this 09-10 Kobe can afford to take a high number of shots because he is EFFICIENTLY taking his shots in the POST and routinely punishing his defenders with his new array of post moves he learned from Hakeem.

Lakers 2009 Road to Redemption: TREVOR, DEREK, LAMAR, PAU & KOBE.
Play the game of which Lakers reminds you of: TA - TI, Shannon Brown - Chris Brown, Pau Gasol - Jesus, Machine - Luis Scola/Russell Brand, PJ with mustache and beard - Colonel Sanders.

by PeanutButterSpread on Nov 7, 2009 4:10 PM PST reply actions  

wait...

did peja actually say that or was it a poster using peja’s name?

by Nostance on Nov 7, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

It was a poster on Dime using Peja's name (which really explains it all):

http://dimemag.com/2009/11/24-hundred-thousand-trillion/comment-page-2/#comment-186660

Lakers 2009 Road to Redemption: TREVOR, DEREK, LAMAR, PAU & KOBE.
Play the game of which Lakers reminds you of: TA - TI, Shannon Brown - Chris Brown, Pau Gasol - Jesus, Machine - Luis Scola/Russell Brand, PJ with mustache and beard - Colonel Sanders.

by PeanutButterSpread on Nov 7, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions  

mixed bag

I agree with A, B, and C. D, E, and F are in apparent ignorance of the Lakers missing Pau.

Let it go. Believe me, if Kobe were on their team, they’d be jocking him so hard he’d be in a neck brace.

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 11:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Takes deep breaths

Okay, letting it go lol

Lakers 2009 Road to Redemption: TREVOR, DEREK, LAMAR, PAU & KOBE.
Play the game of which Lakers reminds you of: TA - TI, Shannon Brown - Chris Brown, Pau Gasol - Jesus, Machine - Luis Scola/Russell Brand, PJ with mustache and beard - Colonel Sanders.

by PeanutButterSpread on Nov 9, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Haha

Deep breaths, indeed

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Josh

You have a gift with words. This would make anyone who wasn’t a fan become a fan. My favorite quote:

Jordan-esque, dominant

It is scary and fun to think how much more amazing Kobe can be.. While Lebron markets his T shirts about his “stats” and his “MVP” award I just can’t help to think but to ask him to work on his post game rather than designing those shirts.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 7, 2009 4:31 PM PST reply actions  

"Jordan-esque, dominant"

Thanks, but those specific words were Kelly Dwyer’s, not mine. And yes, he does have an incredible way with words.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 7, 2009 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes but I was talking about your whole post...

not that quote. I just think it stood out in my head but the whole post is very good.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 7, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks

Glad you liked it

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 7, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

nice article

kobes off season work with Hakeem the Dream has paid off so far…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 7, 2009 5:47 PM PST reply actions  

Hey Josh,

Long time no talk. I just looked at yesterday’s game’s (vs. Memphis) boxscore and it says Kobe’s FG-FGA was 19-30 – is that real and not a typo? That’s great!

- MV

by acm7vu on Nov 7, 2009 5:48 PM PST reply actions  

Quite real

19-30, he destroyed Mayo in the post. I still haven’t gotten my League Pass Broadband figured out, but I may or may not have found a, uh, “creative” way of “finding” that game to “acquire” and watch, anyways.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 7, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Rewatching Kobe's highlights

These are subjective, but of his 19 shots he made (and 1 missed but Artest put back) I counted:

10 post move fadeaways
2 fastbreak dunks
2 backdoor cut dunk
2 contested jumpers
2 cutting to the basket dunks
1 layup
1 PUJIT

Lakers 2009 Road to Redemption: TREVOR, DEREK, LAMAR, PAU & KOBE.
Play the game of which Lakers reminds you of: TA - TI, Shannon Brown - Chris Brown, Pau Gasol - Jesus, Machine - Luis Scola/Russell Brand, PJ with mustache and beard - Colonel Sanders.

by PeanutButterSpread on Nov 7, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

As soon as Pau comes in, his free throws go down. He must be getting old.

I can’t figure it out. Why isn’t Kobe getting fouled passing it to Pau going to the post?

Kobe’s Free Throw Attempts Seem to Directly Correlate with the Presence of Pau Gasol. Yup he’s getting old and then young.

by Cool Dudes on Nov 7, 2009 5:52 PM PST reply actions  

Huh? I don’t quite understand this comment.

Are you suggesting that Kobe isn’t getting to the line as much because Pau isn’t playing? Because there was a time before Pau in which Kobe was getting to the line just fine.

by intuitive on Nov 7, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I believe he's referring to

Pau’s presence last year reducing Kobe’s free throw attempts as versus Pau not being present in previous years.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Nov 7, 2009 11:49 PM PST up reply actions  

damn

i just watched game 5 of the 2004 finals again (by accident)
and it made me unbelievably depressed…
its like seeing a dying animal being put out of its misery…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 7, 2009 6:22 PM PST reply actions  

it was some online feed for classic NBA games

i thought it would be a 1985 lakers vs suns game or something…haha

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 7, 2009 6:30 PM PST up reply actions  

it's good to watch those because

it also serves as a reminder to think that for every painful loss there is a banner hanging in the rafters. I’ll take that pain any day of the week if it means the Lakers will continue to be contenders. Just growing pains thats all….

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 7, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Pau and Bynum to miss Sunday

Because the healing process has been slow, Lakers center Andrew Bynum and forward Pau Gasol will miss another game.

Neither was able to practice Saturday and neither will play tonight when the Lakers face the struggling New Orleans Hornets at Staples Center.

Bynum will miss his second consecutive game because of a strained right elbow.

Gasol will miss his seventh consecutive game because of a strained right hamstring.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-lakers-fyi8-2009nov08,0,464483.story

by intuitive on Nov 7, 2009 9:06 PM PST reply actions  

Well, when we had this discussion before the season

About Kobe’s supposed decline, my primary qualifier was that if Kobe was taking it in the post more often and murdering people down there, then 1) his efficiency would obviously be higher; easier to score down there than on contested 20 footers 2) his free throws per game would increase as a result of people getting overwhelmed down there. Lowering the number of threes and concentrating on the low-post game results in an obviously more efficient Kobe.

The interesting thing to watch in the coming weeks would be whether having both Gasol and Bynum in the game would minimize his posting opportunities, as Gasol occupying the high post and Bynum the low block doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for Kobe to operate down there.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Nov 7, 2009 10:54 PM PST reply actions  

Bynum missed his first game with a strained right elbow and Gasol missed his sixth because of a strained right hamstring.

"You kidding?" Bryant said when asked whether Bynum and Gasol would kick him out of the post when they return. "They know I eat first and they get the seconds."

by intuitive on Nov 7, 2009 11:15 PM PST up reply actions  

*Shrug*

I’m not saying that he won’t be posting up, but rather that his post-up opportunities will be more limited because the offense won’t work entirely through him as it does now, especially with Gasol back (and we’re all painfully familiar with how well the offense runs when people deign to pass to Pau). Might also depend on the matchups from night to night.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Nov 7, 2009 11:32 PM PST up reply actions  

I understood what you were saying, I just wanted a reason to post that quote.

But I expect Kobe to take more jumpers, less shots when Drew and Pau come back because there simply isn’t enough room for Kobe to ease his way around in the paint when you have 2 seven footers clogging the middle. Basically I agree. Kobe will work in the post, but I think he will dish the ball more in the post to Pau and Bynum instead of going up with the shot. We shall see soon enough.

by intuitive on Nov 7, 2009 11:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Ive been so busy complaining about the lakers

i hadnt had time to share my theory. i think kobe will play for another 8 years at least! the shape that kobe is in is amazing considering how many games hes played in a short amount of time, playoffs,olympics,ballin up smush parker in new york,part time super hero

i dont like the choice he made not to fix his finger but i saw him dunk it so mean against the grizz let the man do what he wants.

drive for 5

YOU CAN PUT IT ON THE BOARD YES!
www.reverbnation.com/czheckproductions

by Czheck on Nov 8, 2009 6:24 AM PST reply actions  

i took a look at the highlights vs the rockets game

and i noticed he was posting up battier and other defenders in the paint…..hopefully he continues to work in the paint…this will help him get that field goal percentage up a lot…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

1955,1959,1963,1965,1981,1988...
1949,1950,1952,1953,1954,1972,1980,1982,1985,1987,1988,2000,2001,2002, 2009...

by shaqfor3 on Nov 8, 2009 10:26 AM PST reply actions  

While young players like Andrew Bynum are casting off Hall of Fame mentors as though they’ve learned all they can, Kobe Bryant, the best player in the game and a 14-year veteran, is still learning, still seeking out mentors.

thats right
Bynum take notes from Kobe…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

1955,1959,1963,1965,1981,1988...
1949,1950,1952,1953,1954,1972,1980,1982,1985,1987,1988,2000,2001,2002, 2009...

by shaqfor3 on Nov 8, 2009 10:32 AM PST reply actions  

It sounds like Kareem is headed for Memphis shortly to work with Thabeet.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 8, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions  

This is most impressive... I was pretty convinced that an effect of Kobe's aging was a failure to get to the rim... This year: so far, so good!!!
Consider these numbers:

* In both 2006-07, and 2007-08, Bryant averaged 5.1 shots at the rim.

* In 2008-09, that number went down, as Bryant averaged only 4.4 shots from point blank range.

* Thus far in 2009-10, however, Bryant is averaging 9.0 shots at the rim.

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 8, 2009 10:45 AM PST reply actions  

Really nice piece, Josh. Very interesting.

I think you’ve demonstrated that the Lakers’ fast early start is largely attributable to Kobe’s getting low and being efficient this year instead of chucking fadeaways…

"A bizarre and extremely rare hybrid Blazer/Laker fan, Timbo has always struggled to contain the Beast Within, like Dr. Jekyll, Bruce Banner, or Ted Kennedy." — Miled Animal

by timbo on Nov 8, 2009 10:50 AM PST up reply actions  

love the press on kobe im a die hard lakers fan but for me kobe doesnt need to work on his scoring he needs to seek out magic and learn to be a play-maker we know he can score and lead the league on that stat how about trying to lead the league in assist.

by SOWELL on Nov 8, 2009 2:30 PM PST reply actions  

Assists =/= Good playmaker.

by intuitive on Nov 8, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Jabbar

Josh first time reader and i enjoy your work. What was the real story between Andrew Bynum and Jabbar not working together this year?

by BillBigD on Nov 8, 2009 4:23 PM PST reply actions  

Nice work

I’m a first time reader, and I would like to praise your insight and analysis. Very well done.

by dp1256 on Nov 8, 2009 10:40 PM PST reply actions  

whoa whoa whoa

I love the article, definately some insight into Kobe’s new focus for the season…. however, let’s not go overboard with the stats. You’re getting a bit too much into how well he’s shooting, how much he’s shooting, the places he’s shooting from, and his free throws. But there’s no Pau Gasol. Bynum may have size and strength, but that boy still has ALOT to learn about the post game. Dwight Howard has a better post game than Bynum.

Once Gasol comes back, expect Kobe’s numbers to drop by about 15-20%.

"The problem actually is that PER is a extra-long, double high wagon load of horse crap." - timbo (7/3/09)

by tandur on Nov 9, 2009 5:21 AM PST reply actions  

What post game?
Dwight Howard has a better post game than Bynum.

Let’s start by stating that you’re talking about the best post-player in the league right now, and how Bynum sucks because he isn’t “better” than THE BEST POST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE.

Howard is just more powerful in the low post — I think Bynum actually has a better “post-up game” than Howard does: I’ve never seen Dwight Howard execute a solid post up move that didn’t result in a dunk or a trip to the line. In fact, Cleveland traded for Shaq simply to have a giant body to guard Howard. No way is Dwight Howard backing down Shaq and dunking on him 8 times a game. If they don’t have to double him in the low-post, it’s going to be hard for Orlando’s outside shooters to take advantage of the Cavs like they did last year.

If Bynum could play a full season without getting hurt, I think you’d change your tune a bit. He’s 22 years old right now and hasn’t played a full season in 3 years. He’s got soft touch around the basket, can shoot jump hooks with either hand effectively, can hit a 15 foot jumper, shoots a high percentage from the line, and is developing into a 20-10 candidate at the center position. What is not to like, outside of his injuries?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Nov 9, 2009 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

If you think Howard has a better post game than Bynum

You haven’t been watchin

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 6:49 AM PST up reply actions  

You’re getting a bit too much into how well he’s shooting, how much he’s shooting, the places he’s shooting from, and his free throws.

I assume you’d prefer I just use pure conjecture? I use the stats because they’re there, they’re real, they’re relevant, they’re valid, and they absolutely mean something. If you’ve looking for someone to tell you about Kobe’s improved work in the post based purely on arbitrary statements and clever stories, you’re looking in the wrong place.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 6:53 AM PST up reply actions  

there, yes; real, yes; relevant, yes

Not sure they’re valid, though, considering it’s just a six-game sample.

Put it this way: If after six games, Kobe was struggling to shoot 50 percent TSP, would you say the statistics were significant? I wouldn’t, and I don’t think the current ones are, either. They’re encouraging and suggestive, but that’s about it.

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Approach and result are two different things

If, after 6 games, Kobe was shooting a low percentage, I wouldn’t consider it anything to get in a twist over. But if, after 6 games, Kobe was averaging 8 threes per game — and not just because he took 20 in one game, but because he was consistently taking 8 threes a game, I would consider this a much more alarming and real trend.

Beyond taking his best shots, there’s not much a player can do to control if the ball goes in. He shoots how he knows how, and hopefully the shots drop. Sometimes you hit a cold streak, but every shooter knows that you have to still shoot the way you always do. They’ll start to drop again (unless you’re from Slovenia, where the rules apparently are all kinds of wonky).

But a player can absolutely control what shots he takes. If he’s shooting poorly because he’s taking bad shots, then he needs to stop taking bad shots.

The point is that one displays the regular ups and downs, from which there will assuredly be regression to the mean; the other displays the players active, deliberate mindset. I would argue that the latter is far more reliable.

Besides — yeah, I get that it’s a 6-game sample size. Frankly, I don’t give a damn. If you don’t want to talk about a small sample size, that makes the first half of the season extremely boring. We’re bloggers, and were more-passionate-than-average fans, and this is what we do. Who cares?

I admitted up front that it was a small sample size. There’s nothing wrong with that. What would be wrong would be acting like this was completely and absolutely authoritative, which I haven’t. But as long as you recognize up front the limitations of what you’re doing, there’s nothing wrong with doing something like this. It’s what makes this interesting and fun. Those who don’t want to partake in smaller sample sizes can feel free to tune out until April. But there’s really no need to come in here calling what we’re doing invalid just because it’s not your cup of tea.

Everyone was talking about Melo being this year’s MVP after 3-4 games. They started questioning the Cavs after 2-3 games, and even more so now, after 7 games. We’re talking about whether the Suns are for real or not after 7 games. People were declaring Boston the Eastern Champs after 2-3 games. And everyone from J.E. Skeets to Kelly Dwyer to J.A. Adande and ESPN as a whole are now recognizing the same thing I’ve written here about Kobe’s game.

It’s what we do.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

easy, easy

You’re putting words in my mouth. I never said the whole discussion was invalid. I said the statistics are not significant (or, if you will, valid) after only six games. And they aren’t. I think comparing them to past seasons is totally premature, except (as I said) as an encouraging and suggestive indicator of intent.

But there’s a lot more to Kobe’s game than statistics can tell, anyway—lots of which you can get into, and have gone into. Talking about the mechanics of that post game, and how opponents are reacting to it (or not, as the case may be). All that is still perfectly valid. I’m sorry that it seemed I was criticizing the entire post, but honestly, I’m not. Just cautioning that the statistics aren’t valid yet. They will be, in time. In the meantime, there’s still all the rest to discuss.

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I think comparing them to past seasons is totally premature, except (as I said) as an encouraging and suggestive indicator of intent.
Early Indications: Kobe Bryant Dominates in the Post

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

ugh, Josh

As I said, that’s not at all the part I have any problem with. For some reason, you seem intent on taking a criticism of a small part of your post (and, really, only with a comment you made on your own post) and thinking it applies to the whole thing. Even after I clarified that that’s not what I’m applying it to, at all.

I’m sorry that you read what I wrote as disrespectful, but honestly, that isn’t the way it was intended. What say we just bury the hatchet, yes?

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not taking this personally

I’m just trying to discuss the merits of your objections, because it seems to me you’ve got a foot on both sides of this fence.

You said the stats are not valid, and that is, itself, a valid concern. I’m trying to explain how my usage of the stats is valid. That’s a discussion. My point is that I think you’re misunderstanding how I’m using these stats. Allow me to clarify.

I’m not starting with the stats and extrapolating conclusions, which I’m claiming to be in any way authoritative. What I am doing is starting with observations that myself and many others have made, visually, about Kobe’s post game, and then taking a look at how those observations have shown up in the numbers. The distinction is very important — it’s about what this is all based on. The wrong approach would be to base these conclusions on a the numbers, with only a six-game sample. Instead, this is based on what we can all observe (and I don’t happen to be one that feels the need to have statistics to support what I can see with my eye; I think skillful observation outweighs all stats), and instead of the stats being the basis of this, they are simply used as a reflection of what I’m talking about.

That’s why I quoted a number of other sources — because this isn’t really about numbers, it’s about Kobe’s post game. And while we would definitely question the validity of conclusions drawn based on numbers, the same objections don’t apply to conclusions based on observation, and reflected in numbers.

This is a very reasonable thing. After all, if something is happening on the court, it’s reasonable to thing that, at least to a certain extent, it might be reflected in the numbers. That’s only natural. And my point is that, used in that way, it is appropriate and valid. Were I using the numbers as the basis for the point I was making, your objection would be 110% correct.

The observation is a valid one; there is undeniably a difference in Kobe’s game, in his approach to the game, offensively. A large number of other “experts” — ranging from Lakers bloggers and fan commenters to even those members of the MSM who are typically quite critical of Kobe — have made the same observations. And if they are true, then that reality might also be reflected in the numbers. Turns out, it was.

This is the point I was trying to make. I’m not taking this personally, I just think that your point is a valid one, and therefore worth discussing. The mistake you point to is a common one, but this is not what’s happening in this instance. Thus, I think it’s worth clarifying. This is what I was trying to explain — that I am not basing anything on a 6-game sample of statistics, but rather, that I am discussing a development I have very strongly observed, and, as one of several aspects of my case, showing how that development is reflected in the numbers. Why? Because it helps us better understand what we’re seeing with our eyes.

Of course, that’s what I think we should be doing, regardless. I don’t care if it’s 5 games or 500, I don’t think we should ever be drawing conclusions based on the statistics. I think skilled observation should always come first, and the statistics, regardless of sample size, should be used not to prove anything, but to help us understand what we’re seeing — which still takes precedence.

If PER tells you that Gasol is more important to the team than Kobe, or that Bynum is better than Gasol, then any intelligent observer should recognize how ridiculous that is. However, there are plenty of instances in which we can reach a fuller understanding of and appreciation for what we’re seeing with our eyes.

More complete understanding and better appreciation for the post work we’re seeing from Kobe is what I’m going for here. That’s a far sight from many of the people who start with the numbers, end with the numbers, and regardless of sample size or what their eyes might tell them, draw conclusions that they just can’t safely make from the numbers.

Hey, I’m sorry if this discussion bothers you. I’m not squeamish, and I considered it an important issue, but also a potentially volatile one. Because of how frequently the error you’re pointing to does happen, it’s important to me to make a distinction between that, and this, which is different, and an appropriate usage of even a small sample size.

Hope that distinction makes sense.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

fair enough

I’m not at all bothered by the discussion. It was really just one line (“…there’s really no need to come in here…”) that suggested to me that you were upset by my criticism. If you can accept that I wasn’t trying to offend, then surely I can accept that you weren’t offended!

Because I don’t have the time, unfortunately, to be as expansive as you are, please allow me to be selective in what I respond to. I mostly agree with what you’re saying. (That was true, too, of the original post.) In fact, assume I agree with you unless I say otherwise. :)

1. I think I would say that it’s occasionally OK to draw conclusions based on the statistics, but one still needs to be careful. The problem with using PER to conclude that Gasol is more important to the team than Kobe (and that’s obviously not true, I think) is not so much a misuse of statistics as it is a misinterpretation, or over-interpretation, PER. PER is a linear combination of basic statistics. That’s all. Anyone who says otherwise is either John Hollinger or has bought too deeply into John Hollinger. Possibly both, heh.

That’s not to say that PER is meaningless, though, or that it has no correlation with contribution to winning. If you see that a player’s PER has gone down, for instance, you can look at those basic statistics and say why he might be less effective. It can explain things that we see with our eyes but can’t cogently explain without something like PER. So long as the conclusions we draw are actually warranted by the statistics and their actual definition (not someone’s extrapolation to something abstract like “skill” or “superiority”), they can definitely be valid, given enough of a base.

2. Really, the only main thing (aside from a couple of short sentences) that drew my attention in the original post was your resounding “Yes” to the second of those two questions. Obviously the answer to the first is “Yes,” but because the sample is not only small but drawn over a hopefully unusual circumstance (no Pau, and no Bynum for a bit), I personally wouldn’t answer a resounding “Yes” to that second. Maybe a somewhat diffident “Probably.” :)

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Good points

Yeah, I think we’re cool.

1. Couldn’t agree more. I suppose I shouldn’t say we can NEVER draw conclusions from statistics; there are select times when it is quite appropriate. But those times aren’t all the time, and I’d argue they’re not even that often — and in any case, if the stats, no matter how advanced, defy logic and common sense from the perspective of a skilled, thoughtful, insightful observer, then it’s not your eyes that are wrong. Basically, your paragraph on the role of PER was superb. Couldn’t agree more.

2. I can understand where you’re coming from. However, my resounding yes, while perhaps on the optimistic side, wasn’t really based on the numbers. It was based on the idea that I’ve interpreted his approach as deliberate, intentional, and part of a very carefully designed game play (both individually and as a team). This came some from the numbers, but moreso from Kobe’s behavior, from the interaction with Hakeem, and from the idea, which Hakeem vocalized even before the season started, that Kobe had indeed successfully integrated those moves into his repertoire. To me, the idea that this is an intentional and very deliberate approach on Kobe’s part says that it’s not a fluke, not just small sample size white noise, and that he’s likely to continue this approach going forward — and that, not the numbers, was what the “Yes” was based on. Just wanted to clarify that.

I’ll grant you that the way I phrased the question (Are these numbers an indication of…?) certainly leads you to think that the numbers are why I’m concluding he’ll continue to do so. Poor wording on my part, and not what I intended. I was looking more at the second half of that sentence: “… real, valid, significant improvement, which can be expected to continue, rather than just a fluke or a series of coincidences” is what I was trying to get at, and my answer to the question was, yes, I think it is something we can expect to continue (pointing out that “expect” and “guarantee” are not the same). In that context, “…are these numbers…” was only meant to be a way of referencing the style of play that the numbers reflect, but admittedly, the way I worded it failed pretty soundly at that.

With that explanation, I’m guessing this seems more reasonable to you. Is it definitive? No. But I think it’s reasonable enough to develop some sort of expectation that the style/level of play which the numbers reflect can/will continue, which is the question I was trying to ask.

Thanks for your input, and if you don’t mind, I’m scrap-booking your paragraph on the proper and improper use of PER for future use.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 9, 2009 7:04 PM PST up reply actions  

oops, or seven games

P.S. If you take a quick peek at my posts, you’ll see that I’m not at all loathe to talk about statistics. But working in that field means I’m sensitive to overinterpretation.

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

....and it's only going to get better when Pau comes back

I predict that you’re going to see high-low post feeds to Bryant from Pau when he returns, and vice versa. I also think that you’re going to see more minutes with the Pau-Odom-Walton-Brown-Farmar lineup, reserving Kobe’s minutes for when Pau needs a rest, and putting Kobe and Artest on the floor at the same time.

This team, when healthy, should shoot 35-40 FT’s per game and absolutely dominate in the paint because they can post up 4 of the 5 guys on the floor at any one time against smaller defenders.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Nov 9, 2009 6:40 AM PST reply actions  

I love that Kobe is adding additional aspects to his offensive ability. And I have heard/read that those defending Kobe are not used to defending in the post. But I am not going to get too excited about it. I expect that other teams will find a way to counter it successfully. (If they don’t then great.)

But I remember all the focus on Rambus’s new defense and the up-tempo bench that was blowing teams out last year. That talk subsided after other teams found ways to counter them. But so far, so good.

And I enjoyed reading the article.

And yes I am a 2009 World Champion Fan.

by olf on Nov 9, 2009 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

side benefits

Point well taken. However, fortunately, Kobe isn’t replacing any particular item in his arsenal with his enhanced post moves; it’s pure addition. So opponents, I think, will focus on countering his renewed post game at their own risk. He has lots of other moves he can go to, and I have much more faith in this version of Kobe than I did in the Kobe five years ago that he will make the right decision.

I think I share PBS’s frustration with criticisms of Kobe that are based in his immediate post-Shaq game. Those impressions die hard. It’s preposterous to me that he could have been sharing the ball last year when his scoring output was down, but now has somehow reverted to 2005 Kobe. That’s human nature, but it doesn’t make it fair or accurate. Kobe is, in my opinion, making better tactical and strategic decisions than at any other time in his career. It’s possible to attribute too much to that; certainly a lot of the improvement in the overall product is due to having more talent on the floor. We’ve all enjoyed the upgrade over the Smush/Kwame tandem. But it would be just as inaccurate to wholly disregard his improved game management.

by BrianTung on Nov 9, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Btw, my comment that “I am not going to get too excited” about Kobe’s skills mostly comes from emotional self preservation. I’m trying to not get too high or too low in November.

This next week will be interesting with Phoenix, Denver & Houston again. I hope we can get our bigs back in the lineup or it could be tough. But as long as they’re not seriously hurt, we’ll get there eventually.

And yes I am a 2009 World Champion Fan.

by olf on Nov 9, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

great post josh. this is the first time i read your blog. i still cant believe that a lot of poeple say KOBE is not the best player in the league anymore. i think KOBE’S scoring will go down once pau and bynum come back. but it’s ok, we all know KOBE can and will take over games when he has to. i think melo or lbj might get the league MVP, but KOBE will get the one that counts the most. the finals MVP. like someone mentioned above, i wanna see how well they play against pho,den,and hou. i cant wait to see ron ron go up against melo, and KOBE against smith from the nuggs. well you have another reader to your blog, keep up the great work.

by chris z on Nov 10, 2009 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

Bynum and Kareem

something to consider … perhaps cap told Andrew to stop or he could not play thus the reason Andrew stopped playing against him. If Kareem felt this way since December then all bets are off on his coaching

by matrickz on Nov 10, 2009 10:34 PM PST reply actions  

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