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Lakers-Grizzlies Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies are, in some structural sense, the opposite of the Houston Rockets franchise the Lakers just faced. The Rockets have a widely admired basketball organization but a shortage of ability on the floor. They've got a smart young GM and a successful head coach but no elite players. They're all system, little talent.

The Grizzlies are all talent, zero system. Maybe negative system, if that makes any sense (obviously no, it doesn't). Their roster is littered with high lottery picks, famous names and even a former league MVP, and yet they still blow. The problem, basically, is meddlesome tightwad Michael Heisley, whom SI recently dubbed the third-worst owner in the NBA. Under Heisley's stewardship, the Grizzlies have become really young and really cheap, and although that strategy might result in a winning product a couple years from now, they're not there yet.

Of course, Laker fans do have Heisley to thank for Pau Gasol, so let's keep him in our hearts as we preview Friday night's game.

Star-divide

The Grizz arrive in LA with a sterling 1-4 record. They're in the midst of a five-game West Coast trip of which they've dropped the first three. Here are their and the Lakers' other vital stats so far this year. Keep in mind that with less than 10% of the season in the books, these don't really mean much.

 

Lakers

Grizz

Pace

96.3 (12th)

98.3 (7th)

Offensive Rating

100.6 (19th)

106.3 (9th)

Defensive Rating

98.1 (8th)

114.8 (30th)

 

("Pace" means average number of possessions per 48 minutes. "Offensive Rating" is the number of points scored per 100 possessions. "Defensive Rating" is the number of points allowed per 100 possessions. League rankings are in parentheses.)

Elvis-presley_medium

As you can see, Memphis has been putting up points quite nicely, which is a huge change from last year, when they ranked 28th in the league in offensive efficiency. What's driven the improvement is ownage of the offensive glass. The Grizzlies lead the NBA in offensive rebounding rate thanks to strong work by new power forward Zach Randolph and bearded terror Marc Gasol.

Hey, guess who's dead last in defensive rebounding rate! You got it: the Lakers. They've been getting rocked on the defensive glass this year, and that's with Andrew Bynum playing full-time. No Pau and no Bynum on Friday night = ruh roh. Memphis is likely to enjoy a few three- and four-shot possessions, much to my outrage.

The Grizz frontcourt also "features" Hamed Haddadi, the only Iranian player in the NBA, and second overall pick Hasheem Thabeet. Thabeet has played only 29 minutes this season and stinks of eau de bustola.

Memphisbbq_medium

On the perimeter Memphis rolls out wave after wave of unrepentant chuckers. You recognize the names - O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Allen Iverson - but none is a tremendously efficient scorer. I'm not sure there's a coordinated offensive game plan here - mostly these guys seem to stand around and take turns launching J's. I suspect Ron Artest will guard Gay while Kobe Bryant checks Mayo. The more possessions that get routed through Iverson, the easier the night will be for the Lakers.

On defense the Grizzlies are a total mess. Last in the league in defensive efficiency, they're easier to score on than your sister after she's had a few. The Lakers will be missing two major frontcourt threats, so most of the scoring will need to come from Kobe, Ron and Lamar Odom. Mayo and Gay are poor on-ball defenders, so it wouldn't totally shock me to see Kobe hit 50 in this one.

050612-100

It remains to be seen exactly how Phil Jackson will adjust the rotation in the absence of Bynum and Pau. Going small - with, say, Odom at center and Shannon Brown in the starting lineup - strikes me as inadvisable. Randolph and Marc Gasol are too potent inside and can do too much damage on the offensive glass. Dr. Fishmore instead prescribes heavy minutes for DJ Mbenga and Josh Powell.

Straight Outta Vancouver, our sibling Grizzlies blog on SB Nation, does good work and will have more on this matchup. Feel free to pay them a visit, but please be neighborly if you do. They have to root for the Grizzlies, after all. They don't need any additional grief.

Memphis-grizzlies-dance-team-1-9kxc4pizjt-800x600_medium

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Comments

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okay so what’s up with the LeBron to the Lakers rumors? Yahoo and Bulls.com has two stories about it. LeBron for possibly Bynum, Odom, Artest, Farmar….what do you guys think?

by chaucer on Nov 6, 2009 11:17 AM PST reply actions  

I have seen other articles post this

It has more to do with wishful thinking from Lakers fans on other blogs like the Bleacher Report. So, when someone like Sam Smith writes about it all of a sudden it becomes a legitimate rumor. This is just my opinion but according to Smith’s point of view is that he has heard of everyone stating scenarios where Lebron should land so he is just stating what his scernario would be…that is just my take on his article:

No, going to the Lakers makes all the sense in the world, and, at least to my view, fits LeBron better than it would other players of his caliber. Of which there’s basically only Kobe Bryant.

I’ve heard this scenario from some NBA people, though I’ve heard every other one as well, from staying in Cleveland to New York to New Jersey to running Berkshire Hathaway for Warren Buffett.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Only if the Lakers dump Kobe

For the Lakers, it might be a great move. They’ve got the front office to do it, already some good talent to surround LeBron with, the good sense to hire quality coaching staff who would know how to run an offense (i.e., not Mike Brown), and the sheer appeal factor (especially with LeBron in Purple & Gold) to have no trouble bringing other free agents to L.A. to play with him. They could build YET ANOTHER dynasty.

Problem is, neither LeBron or Kobe are going for it while Kobe is a Laker.

First, Kobe wouldn’t go for it, because any championships he’d win, the media would credit LeBron for. And LeBron would probably get MVP. If he can win 1, let alone 2 or 3, more championships as this team’s undisputed leader, then he stands a chance of challenging Jordan in terms of all-time basketball legacy. Not if LeBron joins up. If LeBron comes, the rest of the way it’s his legacy.

However, this also applies for LeBron, to an extent. He’s made it crystal clear that he’s not fond of being considered #2 to Kobe anymore, and this is Kobe’s town. He won’t take kindly to being #2 with the fans, or to even the possibility of being #2 on the team.

Also, this is his 7th year in the league — and no, he’s not winning a championship this year, either. Given his bull-in-a-china-store style of play, and the fact that despite being a 7-year vet he has poor range, no post game to speak of, and doesn’t seem to know how to use a screen effectively, I think it’s very generous to suggest he’ll be a top player beyond his 15th year. That means that, after this year, he’s got 8 left. He’ll need to win championships every other year just to match what Kobe has done right now … if Kobe wins one or two more, he’ll need to win 6 out of those 8 years to surpass him. And don’t think for a second that LeBron doesn’t have dreams of winning more championships than Jordan, and surpassing him as the greatest player ever. That also means winning in 6 or 7 of his eight remaining years (after this one) — and again, that assumes he’ll still be able to dominate in year 15, which I’m not convinced of.

The point is, his potential for surpassing Kobe, and possibly even MJ, in terms of basketball legacy, is actually fairly narrow. His window isn’t exactly very wide, considering how far he still has yet to go. If he really wants to challenge the legacies of those two guys, sharing a couple championships with Kobe isn’t the way to do it.

Besides, as I’ve already said, it’s clear that LeBron has no intention of playing second fiddle to Kobe’s first. Kobe irks the hell out of LeBron. There’s a reason he wore those “LBJ MVP” and “CHECK MY STATS” t-shirts right after Kobe won the championship and the Finals MVP. Which would make on-court coexistence very difficult, because it would almost certainly require LBJ, not Kobe, to submit. It’s one thing for a fresh kid, like Kobe was with Shaq, to do that. It’s another thing for an established vet, who clearly thinks he’s the best player in the world, and whom many others tout as the best in the world, to do so.

Not happening. Not unless the Lakers dump Kobe. Do you think they’ll do that? As much as I’d hate it, you have to admit, it could mean more championships to come. And that just might make it worth the wrath that the front office would endure from the Lakers faithful. They’d know that once LeBron’s Lakers won a championship, the fans would forgive the slight to Kobe. So yeah, maybe they would take that chance.

But Kobe + LeBron ain’t happening.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 6, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

All that off the top of your head...you got some writing skills

I think that you are 100% right about the Lakers having to get rid of Kobe. If that were to even happen and the Lakers organization were at a cross-road like they were with Shaq and Kobe and they took the younger one I think that the Lakers would take Lebron if they had a chance to sign him. Even if it meant losing Kobe. There are so many Laker fans who left when shaq was traded and who blamed Kobe for it. If Shaq was let go then Kobe could suffer the same fate if it ever came down to it.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Regrettably

I agree. If I was Lakers management, I would probably pull that trigger in 2010, if I could get it. Who knows, maybe that’s why they haven’t extended Kobe?

The problem for the Lakers, if this were what they wanted to do, is that the timing isn’t right. Kobe’s contract keeps him in L.A. at his discretion until summer of 2011. He can opt out in 2010, but remember that he also has the league’s only no-trade clause — so if he opts out, it will only be because he’s got a new deal to sign with the Lakers.

If he doesn’t opt out, he’s here until 2011. And LeBron will be choosing his new home in 2010. Since there’s no way the Lakers could trade Kobe for LeBron — he would veto that — the only ways for L.A. to get LeBron would be either (a) trade Bynum + Odom/Artest, which won’t happen, because of what I said above*, or (b) pull a Boozer and promise Kobe a better contract, then when he opts out, say, “Gotcha!” and sign LeBron. I don’t see either one happening.

  • The other reason scenario (a) won’t happen is the LeBron would want Bynum + Odom/Artest to stay in L.A., rather than Kobe. If LeBron comes to L.A., he wouldn’t just want to be top dog. He would also want to guarantee a very solid supporting cast for several years to come. Kobe staying and Bynum + Odom/Artest going accomplishes neither of those things. It guts the supporting cast AND forces him to share the spotlight with Kobe. Which is why LeBron wouldn’t do it.

The only way LeBron comes to L.A. is if he can be The Man (meaning no Kobe) and guarantee a very good supporting cast. If Kobe’s contract was expiring in 2010, then I’d say it would be very likely for the Lakers to go with LeBron instead. But since the timing doesn’t line up, the only remaining way for the Lakers to get LeBron would be to pull a very evil bait and switch on Kobe. Are they cutthroat enough to do that? I dunno … maybe the promise of winning enough championships to surpass Boston would give them reason to do that, but it would require so much disloyalty to Kobe, and would generate so much ill will with fans and critics, that I just don’t know if they’d do that.

Plus, Kobe might be too smart to allow any of it to happen. If I was Kobe, I’m not sure I’d opt out until LeBron signed.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 6, 2009 12:47 PM PST up reply actions  

That bullet was supposed to be an asterisk

Also, if Kobe extends his contract sometime before next summer (not sure on when, exactly, he could do that, if at all anymore), then you can kiss the LeBron option, slim as it is now, goodbye entirely.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 6, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Again...I agree with everything you said

Especially about Lebron wanting to be the top dog and wanting a supporting cast because if that wasn’t important to him then he might as well stay in Cleveland.

Also, on you question of whether or not the Lakers are cutthroat enough. I say yes. Shaq was 32 and still had enough in the tank to win a title. But not for the money he wanted. If in 2010 Kobe shows a significant decline and wants the same type of money I say the Lakers do it. By the way, in 2010 Kobe will also turn 32 just like Shaq was when he got traded to Miami. Besides, with Lebron and Pau on the same team I would be happy with that as my players to build around. Even without the rest of the other players including LO.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 1:17 PM PST up reply actions  

they might be cut throat enough to trade him...

but will they be cut throat enough to bait him into opting out and then bail on him? Remember, they can’t trade him without his own permission.

I mean, trading shaq was cut throat, but still justifiable. But baiting out kobe and then quitting on him would just be downright dirty (even worse than the boozer senerio).

So the real question is, are the Laker’s front office dirty enough to pull such a trick?

by Nostance on Nov 6, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

If Kobe opts out, I don't think the Lakers have cap space to sign Lebron. Bynum's

extension has kicked in, so the Lakers would still have to trade for him. Lebron could wait to become a free agent in 2011 and the Lakers would have a chance to sign him.

by E-ROC on Nov 6, 2009 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Damn, can you write my Book Report for me?

LOL, that was a flawlessly written essay man! Props.

by desecrator09 on Nov 6, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

another problem is who will get the ball in the 4th???

and who would be the leader of the team???
im not sure either would like the idea of being the sidekick
both players are designed to lead teams on their own…
even if the trade did happen (chances are close to 0%)
there would be a ton of conflicts like these….

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 6, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Kobe

Kobe

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

while i would love to have lebron play with kobe, or lebron play the rest of his career as a laker, i don’t think it’s gonna happen. i think you are right.

by chaucer on Nov 6, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions  

LO turned 30 today

Just to let ya’ll know if you didnt already. Uh oh, hes 30. Its all downhill from here on out for him lol

by desecrator09 on Nov 6, 2009 12:45 PM PST reply actions  

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 6, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

crap i didnt think the picture would be this big :(

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 6, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Straight Outta Vancouver

Here’s the preview of tonight’s game from the Memphis perspective:

http://www.straightouttavancouver.com/2009/11/6/1119688/for-every-king-11-06-lakers

Give it a read, and say hello to Grizzly fans if you like. As always, play nice and be excellent to each other.

by DexterFishmore on Nov 6, 2009 3:39 PM PST reply actions  

Tonites game is gonna be ugggggllly…. front cout of mbenga, Lo, and powell….. im thinking we are going to see Ammo or Artest at PF tonite lol

In Kobe we trust!

by robi s on Nov 6, 2009 4:20 PM PST reply actions  

hope morrison takes advantage of his playing time.

by chaucer on Nov 6, 2009 4:32 PM PST reply actions  

check this out:

i found it on Welcome to loud city
this is similar to fangraphs for baseball
the website that creates these charts is called PopcornMachine.net and it provide a nice visual layout/summary of a game. While the practical uses are kind of limited, it’s still fun to look at. Here we have two charts, with back-to-back games played by the Lakers against the Thunder and the Rockets. The game vs the rockets show the lakers were behind most of the game and took over at the very end…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 6, 2009 5:48 PM PST reply actions  

dam!

that is awesome shaqfor3. Once again SSR has shown me that we not only have the best but also the smartest Lakers/Basketball fans I have ever met. I am adding that site to my favorites. thnx for the link…

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Timbo links to the Popcorn Machine on a regular basis

And actually, it can be QUITE useful. See, if you go to their website, you’ll not only see the graph, but also above it, corresponding to the timeline, you’ll see who was in as the game went on. So you can compare game trends to who was on the court at that time. Makes it easy to say, “Man, when Jordan Farmar was on the court, we sucked,” or something like that.

Also, the Popcorn Machine box score allows you to click on a player’s name, and see box score stats for each separate stint that player played in the game. So if Kobe plays the entire first, then sits, then the last 8 minutes of the second, then the first 10 minutes of the 3rd, then the last 6 minutes of the 4th … you can click on his name in their box score, and see what his box score stats were for each of his separate stints on the court. It enables you to say, “Man, he was on fire to start the game, but after sitting, he was pretty cold in the second,” or something like that.

In all, it’s an extremely useful tool. I love the Popcorn Machine. Plus, it’s named after a Chick Hearn quote.

Strength & Honor
It's good to be the Champs

by Josh Tucker on Nov 6, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Can I just say SSR is awesome...

thnx for the insight Josh. I know now that i’m going to be a regular on that site.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Nov 6, 2009 6:48 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

ive been looking for a tool like this for NBA games like fangraphs
awesome…

When I look at Boris Diaw, I think of Beethoven and the age of the romantics... -The Great Bill Walton

by shaqfor3 on Nov 6, 2009 11:06 PM PST up reply actions  

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