2009-2010 NBA Season Wins Odds

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 16, 2009 2:15 PM PDT

http://www.docsports.com/2009/nba-season-win-totals-529.html

Here is the complete list of 2009-10 NBA Season Win Totals, as currently listed at the Las Vegas Hilton:

Atlanta Hawks - 44.5
Boston Celtics - 56.5
Charlotte Bobcats - 37.5
Chicago Bulls - 40.5
Cleveland Cavaliers - 61.5
Dallas Mavericks - 48.5
Denver Nuggets - 52.5
Detroit Pistons - 41.5
Golden State Warriors - 35.5
Houston Rockets - 35.5
Indiana Pacers - 34.5
L.A. Clippers - 34.5
L.A. Lakers - 62
Memphis Grizzlies - 27.5
Miami Heat - 40
Milwaukee Bucks - 25.5
Minnesota Timberwolves - 25.5
New Jersey Nets - 28.5
New Orleans Hornets -46.5
New York Knicks - 31.5
Oklahoma City Thunder - 35.5
Orlando Magic - 57.5
Philadelphia 76ers - 40.5
Phoenix Suns - 41.5
Portland Trail Blazers - 52.5
Sacramento Kings - 24.5
San Antonio Spurs - 54.5
Toronto Raptors - 41.5
Utah Jazz - 49.5
Washington Wizards - 41.5

Discuss.

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My thoughts

Boston over looks like a easy bet
Golden State is going under 36 wins
Rockets a bit low at 35.5 wins, no? I’d go over on them.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 16, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions

I'd say over for Houston too.

I think they’ll be decent if T-Mac stays healthy and makes an effort to play well.

by wondahbap on Oct 16, 2009 2:23 PM PDT reply actions

I would love to bet 50$ down the line

but it’d probably make me go nuts all season rooting for teams to win/lose haha

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

by Justin N. on Oct 16, 2009 9:32 PM PDT reply actions

I think you can't go wrong with Boston or even Cleveland

Not because I like them, but because while the East has a strong top, there is a bigger gap between the top and the rest in comparison to the gap between the top teams and the rest in the West.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 16, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions

Here's some of what I'd take:

Dallas: Over 48.5
Chicago: Over 40
Golden State: Under 36
Detroit: Under 41
Charlotte: under 37

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.

by Justin N. on Oct 17, 2009 10:10 AM PDT reply actions

ooh, yeah Dallas over looks like a very good one

good catch

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 17, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Barring injury

Dallas is definitely over. Too many weapons, Carlisle too good of a coach not to properly use them.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Oct 18, 2009 2:24 AM PDT up reply actions

But what do these numbers mean? The only Vegas type game that I play and actually will be playing is Texas Hold’m. But even in that I have a hard time understanding the odds/percentages. I’m a layman when it comes to these things.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Oct 17, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions

They're not percentages, they are projected wins.

You simply bet as much as you want on either the over or under. If you think Dallas will win OVER 48.5 games, then you would bet on the over. Or the opposite if you think they will win under 48.5 games, etc…

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on Oct 17, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Read pslakersfans comment

This is where one Las Vegas sportsbook has set the teams totals wins, so that you will bet either “over” or “under” the number of wins for each team.

And also for added clarification, they all end in “.5” so that there are no ties.

So if you thought the Clippers were going to win more 40 games, you would bet the “over”.

I’m also not meaning to promote gambling, I just want to see what people think of the expectations that Vegas has for the teams.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 17, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Pslakerfan thnx for the explanation. Very interesting. Simple enough to understand for an idiot like me.

Gils_Keloids thank you as well. How weird I was just thinking of going to the casino to play texas hold’m. At least I can watch the game there to.

The one team I would bet over on for sure is Memphis and the Spurs.

"When I walked into the locker room on my first day as a Laker and saw my gold uniform hanging there, I cried." - Magic Johnson (Best Laker Ever)

by PURPLE AND GOLD FOR LIFE on Oct 17, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Trying to guess on all of them is difficult

The only ones I’d probably put money on would be Dallas, but regardless it’ll be interesting to see how close the win odds are to the actual results.

Atlanta Hawks – 44.5 – Under
Boston Celtics – 56.5 – Over
Charlotte Bobcats – 37.5 – Under
Chicago Bulls – 40.5 – Under
Cleveland Cavaliers – 61.5 – Over
Dallas Mavericks – 48.5 – Over
Denver Nuggets – 52.5 – Over
Detroit Pistons – 41.5 – Under
Golden State Warriors – 35.5 – Under
Houston Rockets – 35.5 – Under
Indiana Pacers – 34.5 – Under
L.A. Clippers – 34.5 – Over
L.A. Lakers – 62 – Over
Memphis Grizzlies – 27.5 – Over
Miami Heat – 40 – Over
Milwaukee Bucks – 25.5 – Over
Minnesota Timberwolves – 25.5 – Under
New Jersey Nets – 28.5 – Under
New Orleans Hornets -46.5 – Under
New York Knicks – 31.5 – Over
Oklahoma City Thunder – 35.5 – Over
Orlando Magic – 57.5 – Over
Philadelphia 76ers – 40.5 – Under
Phoenix Suns – 41.5 – Under
Portland Trail Blazers – 52.5 – Over
Sacramento Kings – 24.5 – Under
San Antonio Spurs – 54.5 – Over
Toronto Raptors – 41.5 – Under
Utah Jazz – 49.5 – Over
Washington Wizards – 41.5 – Under

by brianfbb on Oct 17, 2009 5:02 PM PDT reply actions

if it weren't difficult

The bookmakers wouldn’t be doing their jobs. Corollary: If there is any case in which you think the decision is easy, I guarantee there are plenty of folks who agree that the decision is easy—they just think it goes the other way.

Incidentally, some numbers may seem somewhat low; that might be because injuries/age are a concern. I have an inkling that might be at work in the figure for Boston. You have a scenario where if everything works out right and they stay healthy, they are quite plausibly good for 60+ wins, but if one of the Big Three/Four gets hurt for an extended period of time, you could easily be looking at the low-to-mid 50s. Unfortunately for them, that’s a significant possibility.

As Kurt Helin has said, the Lakers are have one of the larger margins for error. With an injury to anyone besides Kobe, they get worse, but not by as much as other teams. On the other hand, because we have the superstar, the loss of the top player means more to the Lakers than to other teams. Of course, I’d rather have the superstar than not have him. :)

by BrianTung on Oct 18, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Right

Of course it’ll be difficult. But at least it’s interesting to see what experts think about the season before any games are played.

You bring up the point about the probability of injury being an important factor in some of the low win totals. I think you’re right, I mean, bookmakers probably treat it as would any other actuary treat such risks. But it’s interesting to note that there were four very good teams who lost some of their best players yet still managed great regular season win totals. The Celtics lost Garnett for nearly all games after the break. The Lakers lost Bynum for an even longer period. Jameer Nelson played only half a season, and of the Spurs, only Roger Mason played in every game. These four teams averaged 60 wins last year. On top of that, each team has made changes that, at least on paper, make them better than last year.

Anyway I think this could make a good poll or something.

by brianfbb on Oct 18, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I love the Lakers and think that they have a good chance to exceed 62 wins. But do you think their number is inflated by the Vegas odds-makers because Vegas is so close to L A?

What I mean is perhaps they think the Lakers have a 50/50 chance to make 60 wins. But set the over/under at 62 because of all the Laker fans who come to Vegas and put $100. on Lakers-over just for fun. That would balance out their otherwise lopsided risk.

by lazNirv on Oct 17, 2009 5:59 PM PDT reply actions

This is true

The Vegas odds are influenced by the large market fan factor

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 17, 2009 6:28 PM PDT up reply actions

True, but it tends to balance out

Naturally, you can see the fan factor present, but it’s depressed by the sheer sample size. These estimates aren’t bad.

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

by Ben R on Oct 18, 2009 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions

Here's an email from my buddy on his take , which I found entertaining

Ya know what jumps out at me, and this is probably crazy, is the Clippers Over. I like the Wizards Over, Chicago Over, you are probably right about Houston, sounds like McGrady is going to be healthy. So do you like Boston and Cleveland Over? Dallas proabably over, they have a deep team and are built for the regular season, and then they get smoked in the Playoffs becasue Nowtizki sucks. They now have probably the most overated, and easily exposed players (offensively) in the league now with Nowitzki and Marion. In a playoff series, those guys disappear when you guard them correctly, but regular season they run wild. Is Dallas going to play small? Cause Nowitzki at the 4 and Marion at the 3 isn’t going to work that great, Marion is only effective outrunning 4’s. Kidd is what 37 now? Ok, want no part of Dallas. Plus Kidd and Nowitzki playin defense at the same time, that’s why Denver was scoring like 115 every playoff game.

I’d go under on Sac, Minnesota both of those teams are abysmal. Definitely Under on Utah, they are going to deal Boozer before the year is over.

Hmph intruging, I’ll take a look at this more later, be interesting to see how many games, ok screw it, I’m looking it up now, ok from last year,

nobody in the Eastern Conference won fewer than 32 games (Knicks) except Washington and they won 19, but they had everybody hurt.

Wait a minute, why the hell is Toronto at 41.5? they won 33 last year, how did they get better? aren’t they going to deal Bosh as well? Under

Detroit won 39, no Sheed, Iverson, or Billups now, I’ll take the under 41.5 for them too.

Oklahoma City only won 23 and the guy they drafted sucks in my opinion, how are they up to 35.5? I know Durant looks good but I don’t see that either? Russell Westbrook is no point guard.

San Antonio won 54 last year? and they were hurt all over the place, Over, one last run at it, they got to make a play for home court if they are going to beat LA.

I don’t trust Portland, Denver should make another leap, but I hate their freaking coach, is Melo a top 5 player- no, should he be, yes.

Milwaukee won 34, did they got that much worse? Over 25.5?

The whole East still sucks, you got Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando. Would any other team make the playoffs if they were in the West? Atlanta, Miami and maybe Washington or Chicago.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Oct 18, 2009 8:21 PM PDT reply actions

My kind of stuff

Now I actually have loads of notes and stuff on all of these teams because I was planning on betting this… but turns out you can’t Parlay future bets (on Sportsbook.com at least, if you can somewhere else let me know!) Without parlaying, there is no real money to be made sadly so here is my rough draft.

Atlanta Hawks – 44.5- Over, no reason this team should fall back down.
Boston Celtics – 56.5- Over- injuries too possible with this team though, I’d never bet it.
Charlotte Bobcats – 37.5- Under, they didn’t improve, a lot of other teams did.
Chicago Bulls – 40.5- Over. Rose should will them to 42 or so, too close to ber though.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 61.5- Over, Shaq won’t cost them games.
Dallas Mavericks – 48.5- Over… I think. Marion might not work.
Denver Nuggets – 52.5- Under. This team has about 3 different major factors go their way last year, won’t happen again.
Detroit Pistons – 41.5- Under, LOL at this team.
Golden State Warriors – 35.5- Another one I wouldn’t bet. Under?
Houston Rockets – 35.5- Over. LOL at losing Yao costing them 19 wins.
Indiana Pacers – 34.5- Tough one… would never bet it, but over?
L.A. Clippers – 34.5- Under, Blake isn’t worth that many wins.
L.A. Lakers – 62- Over- Assuming Kobe/Gasol don’t die for long periods of time.
Memphis Grizzlies – 27.5- Under, absolutely bad team
Miami Heat – 40- Over, risky because of Wade’s past injury issues, but if he stays alive it’s a sure thing.
Milwaukee Bucks – 25.5- Over. Why is this so low?
Minnesota Timberwolves – 25.5- Under… Love injured early, AI having issues… yeah
New Jersey Nets – 28.5- Over? Wouldn’t bet it because this team is bad… but that bad?
New Orleans Hornets ~~46.5~~ Seems close, another no better. Over though.
New York Knicks – 31.5- Under, bad
Oklahoma City Thunder – 35.5- Under LOL this
Orlando Magic – 57.5- Over, too good
Philadelphia 76ers – 40.5- Under, bad
Phoenix Suns – 41.5- Over, they’re a 45 win team still
Portland Trail Blazers – 52.5- Over, this team getting worse is laughable
Sacramento Kings – 24.5- Under, still awful
San Antonio Spurs – 54.5- Wow… under… this team healthy wins 55 easy, but too many guys with too many injury troubles. I hate betting on injuries but seems safe here.
Toronto Raptors – 41.5- Under. LOL at this team being that much better
Utah Jazz – 49.5- Umm… under? Injuries? Wouldn’t bet.
Washington Wizards – 41.5- This team is a damned crapshoot. Over?